저자: ZackBakos · 외국인
요약 보기
구글(알파벳)을 장기 유망주로 보되 단기는 약세 추세로 판단해 분할 매수를 권하는 영상이다. 버크셔 해서웨이와 드러켄밀러가 최근 구글 주식을 매수했고, 주가는 전고점 대비 약 20% 하락한 상태라는 점을 근거로 제시한다. 구글은 자체 AI 모델을 검색에 통합했고, 유튜브·안드로이드 등 대규모 유통 기반과 현금 창출력을 강점으로 꼽는다. 향후 2년간 사업이 두 배로 성장할 것으로 예상한다. 밸류에이션은 P/E 약 32배로 싸지 않다고 보며, 스페이스X·앤트로픽 관련 IPO 평가 이익이 P/E를 왜곡한다고 설명한다. 기술적으로 구글은 상승 추세선을 이탈해 200일 이동평균선 아래에 있다. 과거 2025년 2월과 유사한 패턴이라 추가로 약 20% 하락할 가능성을 경계한다. 기본 시나리오는 2026년 내내 횡보 후 2027년 상승이다. 실적 발표 후 일시 반등(340달러대)이 있어도 200일선 재탈환 전까지 기관 매수는 제한적이라고 본다. 분할 매수 전략으로 1차는 297달러 부근 지지선, 추가 매수는 275달러 부근에서 고려한다. 장기 목표가는 450달러 안팎이며 2027년 실현을 예상한다. 단기 촉매로는 내일 실적 발표, 11월 16일 13F 보고서(버크셔·드러켄밀러의 추가 매수 여부), 앤트로픽 IPO, 제미나이 4 출시를 꼽는다. 출연자는 구글을 장기 보유 가치가 있는 기업으로 보며 포트폴리오 편입 의사를 밝힌다. 리스크로는 데이터센터 프로젝트 지연 가능성과 추가 하락 위험을 언급하며, 하락 폭은 제한적일 것이라고 보고 있다.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett's Berkshire just formed a $37 billion stake in a single stock, and Stanley Druckenmiller acquired the same stock just a few months ago. And in their recent purchases, they both paid more than you would pay today if you decided to invest in this stock, as it is now down about 20% from its all-time highs.
And if you look at Wall Street, they believe that this stock will grow significantly, as large financial institutions set price targets approximately 50% higher than the current price. So in this video, I'm going to show you what this stock is, what the exact entry prices are , where I'll personally be buying it, and what's happening this week that could already change the price of this stock.
So the stock they bought is actually Google or Alphabet. Everyone knows Google now, and this business needs no introduction. Most people know it through search engines, but it's also a very diversified business. First of all, regarding their search business, they thought, "Oh, ChatGPT is going to kill this business because nobody will use regular search anymore." What Google has done is they have created their own AI model that is extremely powerful .
It's absolutely on par with some of the most advanced models in the world, and they just integrated it into their search engine. And keep in mind, their distribution doesn't exist because they have so many users, so many people in the world use the Google search engine. So, that's an advantage they have as a business.
They also own YouTube, which is actually the largest streaming platform in the world, and they also own Android, one of the largest mobile platforms in the world. And recently, they have also been creating their own AI chips and data center services. Now, if you look at a business, the valuation of a business often comes down to just how much cash they print.
And Google is a money printing business and they are expected to double their business in the next 2 years. And I really think when it comes to Stanley Druckenmiller and Warren Buffett, they're true legends, and that's one of the most important things they look at when deciding whether it's a good investment or not.
On top of that, there 's a lot of fear about this and viability. Can these companies really build these data centers, which are long-term projects? They may encounter delays. Investing is a long-term game when it comes to such companies. Most often it comes down to whether they can do it at all? And Google is exactly in a position to do this because it has a lot of cash on its balance sheet.
And as for valuations, many will look at this and say, "Hey, Google and most of the Magnificent 7 are trading at about their usual level." But some will say: "No, Google's P/E is 16. And Amazon's P/E is 20." Well, it should be remembered that this is the result of large investments in SpaceX and Entropia.
Both companies are preparing for IPOs, and these earnings distort the P/E ratio a bit. Overall, all of these stocks are fairly highly valued by the market, with a P/E ratio of 32 times. So we can't just sit back and honestly say that these are very cheap companies to get into right now, because, frankly , 32x is not cheap at all.
As I mentioned at the beginning of the video, Google stock is down about 20% from its all-time highs. This is a stock that has experienced five declines of about 25% since 2004. As I see it, most of these declines stopped at around 30%: in 2006, in 2020—about 30%, in 2025—about 30%, and in 2022, during a protracted bear market, the decline reached 44%.
So, let's look at Google's technical metrics. The first thing I want to point out is that Google was in a very strong bullish trend that clearly followed this trend line. But in the past few days, this line has been broken , and Google is now trading below the 200- day moving average. Historically, if we recall February 2025 , when this happened, Google fell another 20% after crossing the 200-day moving average from top to bottom.
So, if the price falls again by about 20% from the 200- day moving average, we will be in a deep drawdown zone , which historically has caused Google shares to fall by about 30%. And this would also be a very interesting support level right here, as it has already served as a support level once, a second time, and could this be a third time, as Google drops here to retest, actually creating some sideways price action for most of 2026 and laying the groundwork for a more bullish structure to break through and go significantly higher in 2027.
Honestly, this is my base scenario when it comes to Google. And I personally do not seek to immediately buy Google shares while this structure persists, because in the big picture this is a "bearish" market structure. It's possible that Google's earnings reports will be simply stunning and we'll see something similar.
Let me zoom in a little: on the earnings report, Google rises to test the 200-day moving average from below, but then loses that momentum again and falls in the fourth quarter, reaching a deep slump zone . So, that's my baseline scenario regarding Google. Would this change if Google retraced its 200- day moving average and held above it ?
Yes, then I would be more interested in trading Google stock again. And the target growth level for this stock is $460. So, if you look at the deep drawdown zone and the target price, the risk-reward ratio here is incredible. You get 3 to 1 because entering Google at 275, meaning Google below 300, is a stock that I like.
I would really, really like to get into these stocks because of their long-term potential. But what if we have a deep market collapse, even by more than 30%? I just don't think Google will fall below the $ 220 or maybe $240 range. So I think the downside potential— and this is obviously the advantage of buying stocks that have corrected 20% to 30% —is that your downside risk is much lower and the upside potential is much higher.
So, again, to summarize: I believe that Google is currently in a bearish trend, which means that patience is needed to find the most optimal entry point. My best entry point as a first attempt would be in the 297 range, which served as support, but I would potentially add more at 275 and not put all my money into this stock at 297.
That's roughly what I'm thinking. I agree with a price target of around $450 for Google in the long term . I just think it will be implemented sometime in 2027. And what are the catalysts for Google by the end of this year? Well, first of all, they're reporting earnings tomorrow, and I personally expect a positive report, which, as I mentioned in my video, could temporarily push Google stock prices into the $340 range, but until the 200-day moving average is reestablished, I don't think there's going to be much institutional interest in building up positions in Google while it's in a bearish trend.
Also, there will be new 13F reports on November 16th, where we will see if Berkshire bought more Google shares? Did Druckenmiller buy more Google stock? Often the market needs reassurance from established investors and institutions to continue buying stocks, so they know, "Okay, they're accumulating more." I should also accumulate these stocks because they really believe in long-term potential.
There will also be an Anthropic IPO, and I think the most important thing here is the launch of Gemini 4. Often when a new cutting-edge model comes out and it is compared to other AI labs, especially in the case of Google, it is relevant because, again, Google is the business that many people think ChatGPT was supposed to replace, because why use Google search when my AI answers everything so much better?
But if Google introduces its own AI, its own search engine, that won't happen. Many people won't even want to pay to use ChatGPT or any other AI service because Google will answer them, and that will be enough for their work, enough to find the answers they're looking for, just by using Google's services completely free of charge.
So, having said that, I think Google is a great company. I really want to have these stocks in my portfolio. And if you want to see real-time updates as I buy these stocks, or if I have other updates on the stocks I trade in real time, then be sure to subscribe to my newsletter. Hope to see you there, and may God bless you.
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