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Updated2026-10-28 07:00:00

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Jim Cramer talks strength beneath the surface in the economy

CNBC Television · 2026-08-18 · 유튜브 시청 27,233 · Board Views 7 · International

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market, ducate and teach. So call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. There is nothing easier than being negative right now. We're almost enjoying this, aren't we? There is so much to dislike about the economy: the feverish state of the tech sector, oil, the president's actions on the war, inflation, housing affordability, and the bond market—whether it's two-year, ten-year, or the horrendous thirty-year.

So it's easy to see why the market fell again today : the Dow fell 116 points, the S&P fell 0.69%, and the NASDAQ fell 1.33%. A real blow to all the great data center and equipment deals that were so popular. But let me offer you a different reality for a moment. No, I'm not going to say that because we have too much debt—so much that we now have a trillion-dollar deficit just in interest—we can handle it.

That would put me at the top of the stupid rankings. I don't know how this will be resolved here or in other countries where the stakes are too high. But let's agree for a moment that the bank is not going bankrupt anytime soon, and move on. The president has no excuses either. As this war continues, it is becoming a rare issue that now unites the left and right in shared disgust.

That's not even controversial, right? Almost no one likes this. And not only because it increases the prices of all types of fuel, especially diesel. Each of us has our own guidelines. I admire the late General George Marshall, the highest-ranking officer in the Army during World War II. He did not tolerate defeat.

Harry Truman too. President Trump often talks about " that loser" or " the other loser" and how presidents have lost war after war. If he wants to see who didn't lose the war, maybe he should pay attention to those two. Hey, how about looking like Lincoln? Wars can be won even by those who say they are not prepared to lose.

But I want to make another argument for a moment, one that is larger than this one. We all know that as long as the president and the Iranians can't agree on anything, and the deal has expired, there's no point in expecting anything good. At the same time, we also know that these oil rallies may be excessive.

We know that the strait is one of the oil supply routes this time . The Houthis in Yemen are also trying to block the Red Sea. We know that the Iranians receive all kinds of weapons from Russia. It's hard to believe that Russians have anything extra, but apparently they do. But the Houthis' time may be running out, given that they are surrounded by enemies.

So I consider the Red Sea a stopping point. At the same time, we will soon be extracting a lot more oil here in America, because there will be a lot of pipelines that will take the natural gas that is burned during drilling by oil companies. It is forbidden to burn gas in this country. There's going to be a huge amount of drilling going on in New Mexico that you have n't even heard of.

This is not even considered. And it would be worth it. I bet this will be our biggest growth area over the next 5 years. The dollar is rising again. Venezuela is producing even more as its refining capacity is destroyed. The Chinese also appear to have an unlimited strategic oil reserve. I just don't see Brent crude soaring much above $100.

It is now worth $91. It's not positive, but it's not the end of the world. Even though the price of diesel has jumped well above $5 a gallon, I'm just saying that oil will reach a price that won't drag down bonds every day. And then this will eliminate the oil factor, which is a huge positive . What about those pesky bonds?

All we hear is a global bond crisis. This is not good news. But then again , can we mention PIGS? This is when Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain almost went bankrupt about 15 years ago. I mean, my God . This was likely to trigger another global financial crisis. It's much worse than it is now.

This did not happen. These countries literally couldn't pay their bills. We did n't even come close to that . More importantly, while rates are rising due to both oil and Treasury bond issuance, we often forget that there are many people who were actually looking forward to higher yields before putting their money into bonds.

They can buy 30-year bonds right now at 5.28%, and then they can buy more at 5.5%. Consider this a promotion. Okay, they average the price down. They make a decent profit. Stay focused. I do n't like it when bond yields rise. This often signals that the Fed is going to tighten policy, right? This is very bad for stocks.

This does not mean that bonds are in crisis. Again, it's not very good, but not enough to destroy us. Just ignore what you hear from me. What about NASDAQ? It may be inflated by data center development, but don't tell that to shareholders of Meta, Google, Apple, Tesla, or Microsoft. There's no joy in this swamp , Bill.

These stocks showed almost nothing. Semiconductor stocks soared. Today they fell to the ground after a real crash. After a sale like that, everyone is afraid of them. Nobody wants to touch them now, right? They are useless. And thanks to Ryan Dietrich, who I follow at X, I was amazed to see that we have the highest number of short positions on NASDAQ of all time.

Can so many people really be right when a deal becomes so popular? Aren't we usually wrong ? For the investment club, we are actually looking for an opportunity to buy beaten-up data center stocks. We bought one today. You can buy them in a pyramid scheme during the drop. Pay particular attention to Micron , which we recently purchased for the Chapel Trust .

Why? Good. On Thursday, we're going to Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron, on his home turf in Boise, Idaho. This is a special trip right into the heart of the most important piece of equipment in a data center, because there is a huge shortage of these memory chips, and this man is trying to solve that.

We need to find out what's going on. The media doesn't tell you enough. That will change this week. Finally, on my list of things that aren't so terrible, the consumer is number one. Last time I talked about how well Airbnb is doing. He is on the rise. People are traveling at full speed. They use AI to write programs, answer calls, and save money.

Today, fireworks were set off by Home Depot, which had its best quarter in five years. Strengthening by 13-16 units. Really good numbers for the professional business , which is great because professionals are a stable customer base, and Depot has spent a fortune buying companies like SRS Distribution, which serves roofing and pool professionals, and GMS, formerly Gypsum, which helps contractors with walls and ceilings.

The pace, as each month showed itself consistently, demonstrated a remarkable result. They noted that they have received simply amazing sales from those who use their natural language sites to research and search for products. And all this happened at a time when the housing market is barely breathing.

Yes, no one particularly cared about it. The stock actually fell to $ 90.39. This is ridiculous. But what if everything is fine at Target tomorrow , huh? I mean the airport. What, how will they improve the performance? What, how does growth justify this leap? Well, I don't think you can beat Home Depot or, for that matter, Target.

What if everything is fine at Walmart later this week? I see chaos in the data center today. This may be somewhat justified. Anthropic has released figures that should be considered a slowdown from previous high growth rates. Higher rates could force tech giants to be a little more cautious about spending.

But I'm not going to turn my back on this group. Consider me a buyer. All I can say is, after all, we have a service economy. If the service sector is developing, you shouldn't be too pessimistic. Two- thirds of our economy may be doing better. Yes, we want to see the housing market recover. When you buy a house, the likelihood of repairs or renovations increases.

Imagine if the housing market actually improved? Did you know that Toll Brothers reported after the close of trading and gave us some pretty good numbers? Higher incomes, higher home sales, higher profits despite rising interest rates. Do you see the pattern I'm talking about? I argue that things aren't that bad, and that they can get better.

Not everyone will lose margin, not everyone will be destroyed. And that short position on NASDAQ just seems crazy, considering that a lot of things in this environment aren't that bad. Here is the main conclusion. I know "not that bad" isn't a big deal, but you're definitely getting better prices than you'd expect, and if the background is good, maybe that's how you should think about it.

This is an opportunity. And the costs seem reasonable. Even though this is probably not quite the bottom, I praise the market sparingly, but I praise it nonetheless. Let's move on to Chris from California. Chris, Buia, Kramer, this is Chris from Lakehead, California. Glad to see you on the show. Buia.

And I congratulate you. Okay, agreed. What's new ? I've already made back my initial investment from these stocks, so I'm playing with casino money. But tell me, Jim, what should I do? Hold, sell, or buy more Snowflake. You don't want to sell that Snowflake, man. This thing is incredibly hot. This is a stock that will obviously grow.

I just doubt it will be a surprise when they report growth. But I think you should definitely keep it. Congratulations. You see, this guy Chris, he made real money. We could sit here and fool around with the S&P, just talking about the S&P. But you know what? If you do that, then why be on television?

John from Florida. John, Buia, Jim. Buia. John, what's going on? You know, I'm a little disappointed. My stock is making new lows, making new highs, there is no immediate catalyst. I don't know whether to buy more or get out of it. What will we do with our broadcast? Oh, come on. No, no, let's calm down for a second.

This is Hock Tan . This is one of the best performers of all time. We can't be so shortsighted as to sell good things. Me, I discuss this with Jeff Marks every day. I have a broker . I have a broker. I mean, Jim, she's not moving, but she's in the black. It is profitable in the long term. If I did it like this and we could see the graph, which of course we can't, it would show you an uptrend.

And this chart is AVGO, formerly Avago, which is now Broadcom. After that call, I want to go to Alaska right away. Let's move on to John in Alaska. John, Hi, Jim. How are you? Not bad, John. Thank you for asking. How are you? I'm fine. I'm fine. I just wanted to talk to you about the promotion. It's called Arista Networks.

Ticker ANET. Uh, I heard they're big players in the AI ​​sector for cloud networking services. But I know they are trading at a pretty high valuation, but their financials have been looking good lately. I just wanted to know your thoughts on this promotion. Okay, this is J. Sri Ula, who is one of my idols.

She was with me last week. I can't believe how well they're doing . I saw the stock drop five. I said to myself: if it dropped to 20, you know what I would have to do? I'll have to call the club and say: remove it surgically. Yes. Because Jay Shree, I'll just say, Jay Shree is one of the best CEOs in America, and if the stock goes down, just buy it at that price.

Even cautious optimism seems like a possibility. I think I won't miss it . In today's Mad Money: Why is Cadence Design Systems losing favor on Wall Street? I spoke with the CEO about the possibilities of AI for the company—it's very interesting. I love success stories of revival, and we are seeing one of them starting in the food industry.

Don't miss Mike's in-depth analysis of Kraft Heinz, they no longer own Cheese Whiz, and that's a shame. This was a product they shouldn't have gotten rid of. And what about satellite surveillance provider Hawkeye 360, which is reporting its first quarter as a public company? I will learn more from .

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