Apple Has Watched AI From the Stands Says Dan Ives

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애플은 아이폰 실적과 중국 서비스 성장은 강했으나 AI 전략(플레이북) 부재로 주가 반응이 미흡하다고 진단. 구글 제미나이 파트너십이 첫 단계이며 향후 구독 서비스로 발전해 기업가치 재평가 요인이 될 것으로 봄. 관세 영향은 최악을 지났다는 입장. 주가 325~350달러 도달이 목표 시나리오로 제시됨. 쿡 CEO는 유산 측면에서 자리를 유지할 것으로 전망.

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01. A staggering quarter in terms of design iPhones, specifically in terms of China. In China, massive tailwind services strong. I don't say best case scenario that you could have seen the stock performance today. I'd say it's a massive head scratcher. I mean, this is well, this is one where I think this stock should be up 5 to 8% relative to what they perform and the guidance.

02. But I think it also just comes down to and we've talked about so much in the show, Right. Is that what's the strategy? What's the modernization? Show us the playbook. That's not Cupertino. That's not their DNA. And I think that's why the stock's kind of to little Larry David Air in terms of the reaction.

03. So how has it been their push? Because they have faced concerns and they've really lagged behind their mega-cap tech peers. Look, I mean, they they've watched from the stands. And I think that's been disappointing to many, including us, because you have the biggest install base in the world. You have 1.5 billion iPhones, but now it comes down to the Google.

04. Gemini partnership is the first big step they're bringing in outside talent, which is, I think, unique to what we've seen there. And then this is what I believe is going to build into a subscription service. I mean, that is not being factored into the stock. And just I go back to like a year ago. Okay, Google, New York City cab drivers bearish on it.

05. Now today, they're doing, you know, ticker tape parade for it. You go back to Med a quarter ago. Now look at it. This court too. We're just going to go through this just very sensitive time for tech investors looking at the Mark Gurman Bloomberg News, his reporting today, maybe some concerns he's calling out about gross margins in the current period due to rising memory prices.

06. Also, some supply chain constraints with the iPhone's three nanometer processor. Are all those things kind of suggesting to investors maybe we're going to have great sales, but maybe not the margins we're looking for? Yeah, I think that's I mean, I think that's in telegraphed, but I do believe you are price increases when it comes to iPhone 18.

07. Well, call it $150 but I think like what ultimately is going to move the stock I get when investors focus on how do you get to 325 350, how do you have a stock with a three in front of it? It's not going to be sales margins. It comes down to lay out the age strategy, show us the playbook. And that's why, like Cook's going to stay CEO.

08. My opinion till that button's handed because this is so important, I think, to his legacy. And what about how it's coping with tariffs? The company said that it created a $1.4 billion headwind. Have we reached the worse? Yeah, I think worse is probably in the rearview mirror network. That's why I also play nice in the sandbox in DC with Trump has been a huge positive but it goes back to cook 10% politician, 9% CEO.

09. So he's being one navigate that extremely well now investors are okay it's good time. What should the growth catalyst. It was a huge step in the right direction last night but you see like investor and there's going to be a narrowing in this tech earnings season. Any blemish, anything investors don't like, they're going to take these stocks down.

10. And we saw that with Microsoft and others talks about China here because that's been a big or an overhang for this company for the last couple of years, if not more. What do you think the status is right there about China and Apple widening into a more positive today? I mean, go back, they were kind of in the middle of a sort of all Western fight between U.S.

11. and China. Now, those tensions have come down. That's had there's been a huge positive for Apple. That's why Apple and Tesla are the two tech companies are always caught in there. Yeah, I think you've seen those towns where it's so important, 20% iPhone sales, you need that to be a market that's showing growth and that's why you're seeing it there, delivering everything you want to see.

12. But the one thing that's missing, it's the air strategy. And that or to me, that's that's really the hearts and lungs of what's going on. Why haven't they articulated a strategy? And maybe that strategy is we're just going to wait and we're going to partner with whoever we need to partner with, and that is our strategy.

13. How have they set that and or is that not enough? Look, they've been it's essentially the last few WWE this year. It's been a back to the future Michael J. Fox movement. Right. The point is, like they've really been on a treadmill at 2.5 speed. I think part of it was a they were hoping it was going to be internally develop.

14. That wasn't going to happen. The probably been, I think, slow and culturally it's actually hurt them. That's why you starting to see changes and ultimately they needed Google when the DOJ sued for this type of deal. Google is when DOJ sued this can this partnership can happen should they bought complexity, Should they have done others?

15. Of course. But that's why this is good time for Apple and that's what the stock's reflecting investors show. Give me something. And do you think that they have a chance in overtaking their peers? Look, I think when you have the biggest install base in the world. And you have a Hall of Fame, Mount Rushmore CEO, a cook, the you could be late to the game.

16. But 2026, they can fumble the football. This this has to sort of be their moment. I think it's off to a strong start. But as we're seeing in tech, this is going to be much more highly scrutinized. You're not going to get give me given the sort of maybe latitude, just given this market.