저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 달리오는 2023년 주식(전체)이 부진해 현금이 상대적으로 유리하다고 보나, 채널 진행자는 장기 관점에서 현금이 주식을 이기기 어렵다고 반박한다. 달리오의 경제기계론: 생산성 곡선(장기 지식 축적), 단기 부채 사이클(5~8년, 금리 인상·인하 반복), 장기 부채 사이클(75~100년)로 구성된다고 설명한다. 현재 위치: 단기 부채 사이클 중간이자 장기 부채 사이클의 시작 단계로 보며, 2008년 이후 양적완화 등 과도한 부채 확대가 2022년 인플레이션을 낳았다고 진단한다. 금리 전망: 시장 채권 수익률 곡선은 장기적으로 금리 하락을 반영하나 연준은 금리를 높게 유지한다는 입장이며, 달리오는 금리가 상대적으로 높게 유지될 것으로 본다. 경기 전망: 2023년 경기침체는 예상보다 덜 나쁠 것으로 보며, 성장률 약 1% 수준의 스태그플레이션(저성장·고물가) 환경을 예상한다. 미국 부채 문제: 미국이 막대한 부채를 발행했고 이를 세계에 매각하기 어려워 연준이 인플레이션과 부채 부담 사이에서 어려운 위치에 있다고 본다. 자산 선호: 달리오는 현재 현금이 채권 대비 및 주식 대비 상대적으로 매력적이라고 본다. 실질수익률이 2022년 마이너스에서 단기채 기준 플러스로 전환됐다는 근거다. 주식 리스크: 높은 할인율과 금리가 미래 현금흐름에 부담을 주어 주식 주가가 추가 하락할 수 있다고 본다. 진행자 반론: 가치투자 관점에서 거시예측보다 개별 종목 기회가 중요하며, 달리오는 2022년 초 '현금은 쓰레기'라 했으나 현금 성과가 주식·채권보다 나빴다고 지적한다. 10~15년 이상 장기로 보면 현금이 미국주식을 이길 시나리오는 거의 없다고 본다. 출연자 전망 요약: 달리오는 주식 전반에 대해 약세·현금 선호, 진행자는 장기 주식 선호.
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now cash is relatively attractive right so it's attractive in relation to bonds it's actually attractive around Shield of stocks I don't think people are paying enough attention to the big cycle Ray Dalia was back on saying they say last week and his warning investors that they could be significantly more pain in the stock market in 2023 in fact dalio expects stocks as a group to perform so poorly that he believes cash currently offers a better relative return in the exclusive interview dalio gave his best explanation yet of the long-term debt cycle and how it affects us as we participate in the economy and how it helps to explain what the economic environment may look like over the next few years Ray dalio is one of the most successful investors of all time with a net worth of 19 billion dollars primarily built through founding Bridgewater Associates currently the biggest hedge fund in the world today I'm going to share some clips from his latest interview where he talks about the long-term debt cycle as well as what assets are likely to do well going forward from here also I'm trying to hit 200 thousand subscribers by the end of the year so if you're not subscribed just going below and hitting that little red button helps me out a ton so I really appreciate it but with that said let's jump into the video Ray dalio is one of the few people I turn to to learn about the economic machine because he does a terrific job at breaking down the complexities of the finance world into a few key building blocks forces factors that ultimately influence what we see and what happens the economic machine has three key components a productivity curve a short-term debt cycle and a long-term debt cycle an economy is simply an aggregate of many individual transactions between people businesses and governments transactions where money is being exchanged for goods services and financial assets such as stocks productivity is the simplest part to understand over time humans get better at making products and services through an accumulation of knowledge which ultimately raises our living standard and dalio calls this the productivity curve for example the knowledge we now have about creating Motor Vehicles has caused a dramatic increase in efficiency of Supply chains which has reduced the cost of goods and services and improved our living standards over the long run productivity drives economic growth but in the short term its debt that drives the swings we see in the economy and that's because debt essentially allows us to consume more than we produce when we acquire more debt and forces us to consume less than we produce when we have to pay it back in the case of the short-term debt cycle it typically takes place over a five to eight year period The increased use of debt drives higher spending and when spending exceeds production we get higher prices or ultimately what we call inflation this is where the Central Bank steps in to raise interest rates to slow down inflation those higher interest rates increase the cost of debt forcing people to spend more on their debt financing rather than spending elsewhere in the economy less money spending causes prices to decline and leads to a recession and if inflation is no longer an issue then the central bank will lower interest rates starting the short-term debt cycle all over again there have been 12 and a half short-term debt Cycles since 1940 E5 with the last full cycle beginning in 2008 when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to zero percent during the global financial crisis and that cycle ended in 2020 when the pandemic recession once again forced interest rates to zero percent but not only are we currently in the middle of a short-term debt cycle we're also right at the beginning of the long-term debt cycle which typically takes place over 75 to 100 years there are these short-term Cycles since World War II they've averaged about seven six or seven years plus or minus about three years that's what we're in a classic one of those but we keep building up the debt and then there were issues in terms of the issue of the dollar and what's happening in terms of the world and the value of money the beginning and end of these debt cycles that take place over multiple decades is something that has severe consequences for investors and it's also something that no one alive today or very few people who are alive today would have experienced before while the amount of debt increases and decreases in short-term Cycles it also tends to accrue over multiple Cycles in his latest memo dalio said debt liabilities and debt assets have virtually always increased to make the long-term debt cycle expansion in all cases this has continued until the debt burden has become unsustainably large or the debt assets have become intolerably low returning at which time there are big reductions in debt liabilities and debt assets that take place through a mix of debt restructurings and debt monetization these are the big debt crisis periods the best way to understand what dalio means by these long-term Cycles is to simply walk through the long-term cycle that has just taken place that began in 1945 and has recently ended the long-term debt cycle has four phases first phase began in 1945 when World War II ended and the U.S secured its position as not only the strongest economic Force but also the strongest military power ultimately giving them control of both money and geopolitics from 1945 to 19 71 the US dollar was also backed and tied to gold which meant that you could essentially exchange your dollars if you wanted to for gold at the Federal Reserve there were five short-term debt Cycles during this period which were categorized by the U.S overspending and funding that overspending by using more and more debt eventually some countries that held a lot of US Dollars realized that the US had way more claims on gold than actual gold to exchange for the US Dollars and they started to exchange their US dollars for gold and this caused essentially a bank run on the US but since the U.S didn't hold enough gold to exchange for those dollars the US essentially decided to just sever the tie between the US dollar and gold and today's fiat currency was created as you might expect this caused a dramatic devaluing in the currency from 1971 to 2008 the US dollar was devalued severely and during this period there were also five short-term debt cycles each with interest rates ending lower than the last providing a huge Tailwind for asset prices in 2008 the global financial crisis caused interest rates to hit zero percent meaning the maximum effect of lowering interest rates had been reached and a new type of monetary policy by the central bank would be needed to stimulate the economy this marked the last phase of the long-term debt cycle which is where there is rapid debt monetization which in 2008 came in the form of quantitative easing the Federal Reserve turned on its money printer and started buying a lot of government bonds and this also continued in 2020 when the government needed even more money to fund its covert stimulus checks so again the Federal Reserve printed trillions of dollars in board government bonds and what came next should have been little surprise to anyone a huge amount of inflation came from all of this additional spending and that brings us to the last couple of years which I'm sure most of us are pretty familiar with what's been happening to get inflation under control the Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates since mid-2022 and as a result of the increased interest rates speculative stocks have collapsed and even the broader Market is done pretty poorly so where are we today and going forward and which asset classes does dalio believe will do best in the future just before I get to that I do want to re is so much noise in the financial media landscape and it can be really difficult to sift through the huge amount of disingenuous headlines to find real reliable sources of information the daily upside is the solution to this problem it's totally free and you get a financial brief sent to your email each morning which covers the most important news and stories of the business world to start your day it's concise informative and witty and leads to more detailed stories about what is happening around the globe in the finance and business world there' as someone who needs to have a finger on the pulse of what's going on in the finance world to create content like this the daily upside has been a fantastic way to start my morning just the other week I read a fascinating story about the Google and Twitter Supreme Court cases for the liability of terrorist content on social platforms both cases are challenging section 230's protection for internet platforms the long-standing rule that grants websites legal immunity for hosting potentially illegal content posted onto their site by outside users this is a really interesting story and I may have completely missed this if I didn't see it in my morning brief from the daily upside so whether you're a financial professional or just someone looking to get a jump start on what's moving the markets the daily upside is a great way to start your day it's totally free and they send you one information filled brief each morning to your email join the hundreds of thousands of investors the markets now actually believe that interest rates will be going down over the long term from here this Market depending on how what you think this Market is does it actually believes that inflation's coming down and they don't believe Jay Powell to some degree I think what you're referring to is they don't believe what's in the curve or in other words what's in the curve is a significant amazing what's and what Jay Powell is saying is steady right believe steady you're saying believe steady you're saying believe what Jay Powell is saying right we know this because we can see what's priced into the bond yield curve as short-term rates have significantly higher yields than the further you look out but this flies in the face of what the Federal Reserve has been suggesting with Jerome Powell telling investors that rates are going to be steady going forward and dalio agrees but I think that this type of recession is not a bad recession it's a lot less bad than I thought it would be despite the expectation that rates will remain relatively High dalio believes the recession we may see in 2023 will be less worse than he previously thought he says the real issue with the US is their debt that they've borrowed an enormous amount of debt and they're currently having a difficult time selling it around the world and that puts the Federal Reserve in a very difficult position trying to balance two key factors inflation and the debtors they need to have an interest rate that is high high enough to offer real returns returns that exceed the inflation rate while also not raising rates too high for borrowers such as businesses and governments who are debt burdened and seeing their interest payments rise so you're seeing this type of contraction so it's going down and we're having something close to a stag let's say a stag pleasure meaning maybe three and a half and I think you're going to see inflation come down to this and then because of the way it's calculated it'll go up a bit and so you see that kind of an environment with something close to maybe a one percent growth rate right something like that right finally in the interview dalio gives us some insights into which assets he thinks will perform well in the environment we face now cash is relatively attractive right so it's attractive in relation of bonds it's actual interactive and relational Shield of socks Dahlia believes that cash looks pretty attractive right now especially compared to stocks he thinks this for really two key reasons firstly when it comes to cash there real returns have shifted from being quite negative to actually now being positive back in 2022 the annual inflation rate far exceeded what you could get from a Government Bond meaning your real return after inflation was negative in the recent months short-term bonds have actually offered a return that is exceeding the short-term inflation rate at the same time dalio believes there could still be more pain in the stock market to come in 2023.
every investment is a lump sum payment for a future cash flow and you put in the discount rate so now you've moved the discount rate that discount rate is not going to be materially changing right so we're not going to go back to the old discount rate and prices are not going to go back to where they were then you start to have the knock-on effect on the economy and the relatively High interest rates also have an effect on the future cash flows the other component whereby higher interest rates means that there may very well be somewhat of a knock-on effect into the economy that affects businesses and their cash flows so in essence he believes that a combination of rise using all stable interest rates with slow stagnant economic growth will mean that returns for investors inequities will be relatively poor from here again I think it's important to mention how this impacts how you should be investing if you're a value investor like me you really don't care about macroeconomic predictions that are made by people like Ray dalio especially because at the end of the day even though he sure may be right that as a group equities are not going to do as well as they have in the past on an individual basis or a particular sector or a particular industry or particular Market there will be businesses and Investments That continue to do well and as a value investor your job is to try and identify those opportunities and while dalio does do a great job at explaining the economic machine his track record on whether you should be in cash or out of cash has been pretty bad recently I mean just as recently as the start of 2022 he was still saying that cash is trash and cash ended up doing far better than stocks and bonds that year so it's entirely possible as he sits there today and says that cash is a good place to be that cash may actually do far worse than equities and even bonds and if we zoom out even further which is in my view how you should think about Investments then over a 10 15 year period or even longer there's almost no scenario where cash will be doing better than say us equities check out my other videos on Ray dalio down in the description below if you're interested hit subscribe if you enjoyed the content and I'll see you guys in the next video
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