Warren Buffett: Where To Invest Spare Portfolio Cash

요약 보기

버핏과 멍거가 2023년 주주총회 Q&A에서 현금 보유, 지연된 만족, 자동화와 고용 문제를 논의한 내용으로, 개별 종목이나 자산 가격에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음. [현금 보유 vs 인덱스 펀드] 질문자는 버크셔가 15년간 대규모 현금과 국채를 보유해 인덱스 펀드 투자 대비 기회비용이 컸다고 지적함. 버핏은 수치 자체에는 동의하지만 대규모 자금 운용의 실행상 문제가 있다고 답함. 버핏은 향후 후계자가 인덱스 펀드 전략을 택할 수 있다고 언급하며, 국채보다는 인덱스 펀드를 선호한다고 밝힘. 버크셔는 수천억 달러 규모의 자금을 빠르게 투입할 수 있는 조건을 유지하며, 기회는 몰려서 찾아오고 남들이 원하지 않을 때 온다고 설명함. [멍거의 현금 보수성] 멍거는 현금을 다소 보수적으로 보유하는 편이라고 인정하며, 대기업이 현금을 약간 많이 쥐고 있는 것은 죄가 아니라고 말함. 하버드 대학이 현금을 모두 주식과 사모펀드에 투입해 2~3년간 고통을 겪은 사례를 들어 버크셔는 그렇게 하지 않겠다고 함. [지연된 만족과 금리] 버핏과 멍거는 지연된 만족은 타고나는 성향이라 교육으로 바꾸기 어렵다고 봄. 30년 만기 국채 금리 3%는 연 2% 물가 목표에서 실질 이익이 작아 지연된 만족의 대가가 적다고 설명함. 버핏은 돈이 일정 수준 이상이면 행복과의 상관관계가 크지 않다고 말함. [자동화와 고용] 버핏은 농업 기계화 때도 일자리 우려가 있었지만 미국은 1776년 이후 일자리를 없애고 새 일자리를 만들어 왔고, 현재 취업자는 역사상 최대라고 주장함. 멍거는 반복적 작업을 로봇에 넘기는 것이 과거 200년간의 흐름이라고 말하며, 하위 계층의 일시적 불리함은 자산 가격 상승과 저금리 같은 우연한 요인에서 비롯됐다고 봄. 멍거는 식료품 유통의 사례를 들어 창조적 파괴가 효율을 높였다고 설명함.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Warren you are a big advocate of index investing of and of not trying to time the market but by your having Berkshire hold such a large amount of cash and t- bills it seems to me you don't practice what you preach I'm thinking that a good alternative would be for you to invest most of berkshire's excess cash in a well Diversified Index Fund until you find an attractive acquisition or buyback stock had you done that over the past 15 years all the time keeping the 20 billion cash cushion you want I estimate that at the end of 2018 the company's 112 billion balance in cash cash equivalents and short-term investments in t- bills would have instead been worth about 155 billion the difference between the two figures is an opportunity costs equal to more than 12% of Berk's current Book value you what is your response to what I say and for I forgot to say the question is from Mike elar who is with the colony group located in boa Ron Florida that's a perfectly decent question and I I wouldn't quarrel with the numbers and I would say that that that that is an alternative for example that my successor uh may wish to employ because on balance I would rather own uh an index fund than than than carry treasury bills I would I would say that if we' instituted that policy in 2007 or 8 uh we might have been in a different position in terms of of our ability to move uh late in 208 or 2009 uh so it it has certain it has certain execution problems with hundreds of billions of dollars than it does if you were having a similar policy with a billion or two billion or something of the sort but it's a perfect it's perfectly rational observation and certainly looking back on 10 years uh of a bull market that it it really jumps out at you but I would argue that that uh that uh uh if if you were working smaller numbers it it would make a lot of sense and if they're working with large numbers it's it it might well make sense in the future at burshire to operate that way you know we committed 10 billion a week ago and there are conditions under which and they're not they're not remote they're not likely in any given week or month or year but but there are conditions under which we could spend hundred billion doll very very quickly uh uh and if we did if those conditions existed it would be the capital very well deployed and much better than in an index fund and so we've been uh we're operating on the basis that we will get chances to deploy Capital they will come in clumps in all likelihood and uh they will come when other people don't want allocate Capital Charlie what do you think about it well I plead guilty to being a little more conservative with the cash than other people and but I think that's all right uh we could have put all the money into a lot of Securities that would have done better than the S&P the 2020 hindsight remember we had all that extra cash all that period if something could come along in the way of opportunities and so on I don't think it's a sin to be a little strong on cash when you're as big a company as we are uh we don't have to I watched Harvard use the last ounce of their cash including all their prepaid tuition from the parents and plunge it into the market at exactly the wrong moment and make a lot of forward commitments to private equity and they suffered like two or three years of absolute agony we don't want to be like Harvard plus Timber and a whole bunch of that I mean plus Timber and I mean yeah yeah we're not going to change we we we do like having a lot of money to be able to operate very fast and very big and we don't and maybe we won't we know we won't get those opportunities frequently I don't think uh certainly you know in the next you know in the next 20 or 30 years there'll be a two or three times when it'll be raining gold and all you have to do is go outside but uh uh we don't know when they will happen and and we have a lot of money to commit and I would say that if you told me I had to either carry short-term treasury bills or have index funds and just let that money be invested in America generally I would take the index funds but we still have hopes and the one thing you should very definitely understand about birkshire is that we run the business in a way that we think is consistent with serving shareholders who have virtually all of their net worth in Berkshire I happen to be in that position myself but I would do it that way under any circumstance ances we have a lot of people who trust us who who uh really have disproportionate amounts of Berkshire compared to their net worth uh if you were to follow standard investment procedures and and uh uh we want to make money for everybody but we want to make very very sure that we don't lose permanently money from anybody for anybody that buys our stock somewhere around intrinsic business value to begin with we we just have an we have an aversion to having a million plus shareholders maybe as many as 2 million and having a lot of them uh ever really lose money if they're willing to stay with us for a while and we know how people behave if when when the world generally is is uh upset and uh they want to be with something I think they want to be with something that they feel is like the rocket braw and and and uh we have a we have a disp we have a real disposition toward that group I want to know is there any way that kids can develop the delayed gratification skill I'll take it if you want me to go to oh man I'll take that because I'm a specialist in delayed gratification I've had a lot of time to delay it and and uh my answer is that they sort to come out of the womb with the delayed gratification thing or they come out of the womb where they have to have everything right now and I've never been able to change them at all so we identify it we don't train it in Charlie's had eight children so he's become more and more of a believer in in nature versus nurture H you probably signed some nice old woman of about 95 out there in threadbear clothing and she's delaying gratification right to the end and probably has 4,000 a shares it's just these second and third generation types that are buying old jewelry it's interesting if you think about we'll we'll take it to a broader point but if you think of the long a 30-year Government Bond paying 3% and you allow for as an individual paying some taxes on the 3% you'll receive and you'll have the Federal Reserve board saying that their objective is to have 2% inflation you'll really see that uh that delayed gratification if you own a long Government Bond is that you know you get to you get to go to Disneyland and ride the same number of rides 30 years from now that you would if you did it now the the the low interest rates for people who invest in fixed dollar Investments uh really mean that uh you really aren't going to you know get have eat steak later on if you eat hamburgers now which is what I used to preach to my wife and children and anybody else that would listen many years ago uh uh so it's I don't necessarily think that that uh for All Families in all circumstances that saving money is is uh necessarily the best thing to do in life I mean you know the the if you really if you really tell your kids they can whatever it may be they never go to the movies or will never go to Disneyland or something of the sort because if I save this money 30 years from now you know well we'll be able to stay a week instead of two days I think I think there's a lot to be said uh for doing things that that bring you and your family enjoyment rather than trying to Ser every time uh so uh I advise delayed gratification is not uh necessarily A an unqualified uh uh course of action under all circumstances uh I always believed in spending two or three cents out of every dollar I earned saving the rest but I really I I always had everything I wanted I mean but one thing you should understand uh if you aren't happy having $50,000 or $100,000 you're not going to be happy if you have 50 million or 100 million I mean it it uh the a certain amount of money does make you feel and those around you feel better just in terms of being more secure in some cases but but uh loads and loads of money I I've probably known as many rich people as just about anybody and uh uh I do not I don't think they're happier because they get super rich I think they're I think they are they are happier when they don't have to worry about money but uh you don't see a correlation between happiness and money uh Beyond a certain place so don't go overboard on delay gratification hi Warren hi Charlie my name is Carrie and this is my daughter Chloe she's 11 weeks it's our very first Burkshire meeting we're from San Francisco and we have a question on employment for you as both a major employer and a producer of consumer Goods what do you make of the uncertain outlook for good full-time jobs with the rise of Automation and temporary employment well if we'd ask that question 200 years ago uh and somebody said with the outlook for development of farm machinery and tractors and combines and so on meaning that 90% of the people on farms were going to be lose their job uh it would look terrible wouldn't it but our economy and our people our system has been remarkably ingenious in achieving whatever we have now 160 million jobs when throughout the period ever since 1776 we've been figuring out ways to get rid of jobs that's what capitalism does and it produces more and more Goods per person and we never know exactly where they're going to come from I mean it it uh you know I don't know what you were if you were uh whatever uh occupation well if you were in the passenger train business I mean you know you were going to that was going to change but we find ways in the economy to employ more and more people and we've got now more people employed than ever in the history of the country even though company after country and Company and particularly in heavy industry and that sort of thing has been trying to figure out naturally how to get more productive all the time which means turning out the same number of goods with fewer people or are turning out more Goods with the same number that's that is capitalism I don't think I don't think you need to worry about American Ingenuity uh running out I mean I mean you uh you look at people in all kinds of I mean of businesses and they like to make money but they really like they like to be inventive you know they like they they like to do things and uh and this economy uh it works it will continue to work and it'll be very very tough uh in certain industries and there will be dislocations we won't be making as many Horseshoes and that sort of thing when cars come along and all that but we do find ways now to employ whatever we're employing 155 whatever it is million people and supporting a population of 330 million people when we started with 4 million people with 80% of the labor being employed on farms so this system works and it will continue to work and I I don't know what the next big thing will be I do know there will be a next big thing Charlie well we want to shift the scut work to the robots to the extent we can that's what we've been doing as Warren said for 200 years nobody wants to go back to being a blacksmith or scooping along the street picking up the horsemen or whatever help people used to do uh we're glad to have that work eliminated and a lot of this worry about the future comes from left us so very terribly that that uh the people at the bottom of the economic pyramid have had a little stretch when the people at Top Got ahead faster that happened by accident because we were in so much trouble that we had to flood the world with money and drive interest rates down the zero and of course that drove asset prices up and helped the rich nobody did that because they suddenly loved the rich it was just an accident and it it will soon pass we we want to have all this productivity Improvement and we shouldn't worry a little about the fact that one class or another is a little ahead at one stretch Char Charlie and I we worked in a grocery store and when people ordered the canopies we had ladders that we climbed up to reach the canopies and then we placed it in a folding box and then we put it on a truck and if you looked at the amount of food actually transferred between the producer and the person who consumed it and the per and the number of people involved in the transaction you know it was I don't know whether it was 1/3 or 1 14 or 1/5 is efficient as the way the best way now to get food delivered to you and and was worse and and my grandfather would you know was distressed about the fact that that that this particular credit and delivery kind of store would would be eliminated and it was eliminated but Society coming back it's it's coming back it's coming back but more efficiently anyway we we've seen a little creative destruction and and frankly we're glad that it freed us up to go into the investment business worked out better for us