저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏과 멍거가 소액 자산 운용과 대형 자산 운용의 차이를 설명하는 질의응답 영상. 버핏은 본인이 소액(약 100만 달러)으로 연 50%를 낼 수 있다는 보도를 완전히 정확하지는 않다고 정정하면서도, 소액이라면 그런 수익률이 가능하다는 취지로 말함. 소액 운용 시 투자 대상 범위가 수천 배 넓어지며, 작은 차익거래·소형 불일치·소형주 등 높은 수익을 낼 기회가 있다고 설명. 운용 규모가 1억·10억 달러로 커지면 이런 기회가 급격히 줄어든다고 말함. 과거 사례로 한국 주식이 터무니없이 저평가되어 있던 때를 언급했으나 구체 종목·가격·기간은 제시되지 않음. 멍거는 40년 전에는 지금보다 쉬웠으며 지금은 더 많이 알아야 한다고 말함. 버핏은 본인의 현재 관심은 버크셔가 투자할 수 있는 대형 자산이라고 밝힘. 삼성전자·SK하이닉스 등 대상 종목·지수에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Well, recently, in a lecture at Wharton Business School, Mr. Buffett, you indicated that you were talking about the capitalization problems of large companies, which I appreciate and understand. But you indicated that you were quoted in the local newspaper saying that you are confident that if you were working with an amount close to one million dollars, you could capitalize on that amount at a rate of 50 %.
For those not burdened with the hundred- billion-dollar problem, could you talk about what types of investments you would be looking for and where, in the current market, you think there are significant inefficiencies? Thanks . Yes, I think I may have been quoted a little incorrectly, but I certainly said something along those lines.
But while working, I think I talked about this group that I meet with every two years and how I do research with this group about what they think they could make money with a hundred thousand, a million, a hundred million, a billion, and other types of amounts. And I pointed out how this group of about 60 people, with whom I meet every two years, would have their expectations of return drop very quickly.
And truth. I think I can name half a dozen people who I believe could earn a million dollars, or at least earn 50% a year on a million dollars, if that's the expectation. If they needed to. I mean , I would have to pay full attention to work on the sum. And these people wouldn't be able to make money with a hundred million or a billion even remotely at that rate.
I mean , there are tiny little areas that, if you follow what I said on screen in that interview with Adam Smith a few years ago... If you start with A and analyze everything, you will find small guarantees in your area of expertise, which will allow you to understand the business. I think you might occasionally encounter minor arbitrage situations or small difficulties here and there in the market.
I think working with a very small amount gives you the opportunity to get very high returns, but that advantage disappears very quickly as the money accumulates because, you know , from one million to 10 million, I would say it would drop drastically in terms of...because there are, there are small things, you find very, very small things that, you know, can make you almost certain to get high returns, but returns, but you don't find very big things in that category today.
I'll leave the fun of finding them yourself to you. It would have ruined the treasure hunt. And the truth is, I don't look for them anymore. Every now and then I stumble upon something by accident, but I 'm not in the business of searching for it. I'm looking for things Berkshire could invest its money in , and that excludes all that sort of thing .
Charlie? Well, I agree, but I would also say that what we did about 40 years ago was, in some respects, simpler than what you will have to do. Okay. It was much easier for us than it was for you. It can still be done, but it 's more difficult now. You need to know more. That is, just sift through the manuals until you find something that's being sold at twice the profit.
This won't work for you. It will work, but you won't find anything. Yes. My question is directed to Mr. Buffett. Mr. Buffett, you claim you can make 50% per year. If you had to start over with a small portfolio, would you still be buying and holding, buying quality companies at a good price? Or would you be engaging in arbitrage and really getting straight to the point, as you did in your partnership with Buffett?
Yes, if I were working with a very small amount of money, and you should hope that I'm not. If I were working with a very small amount of money, I would be doing completely different things than I do now. That is to say, your universe expands. I mean, if you look, there are thousands and thousands and thousands of times more options to consider if you're investing $10,000 than if you were investing one hundred billion.
And obviously, if you have that many options, you'll have all the options you would have with a hundred billion, except for buying entire companies and all those other options. So, you can get very high returns with very small amounts of money, and it will always be that way. I don't mean to say that everyone can do this, but if you know something about values and investments, you'll find opportunities with small amounts, and it won't be with the portfolio that Berkshire has.
We can't achieve phenomenal returns by putting three billion, four billion, five billion into a single stock. It won't work that way. It won't even come close to working that way. But if Charlie or I were in a position to work with a million dollars, five hundred thousand dollars, or two million, we would find little things here and there.
And these would always be stocks, where we would earn very high returns on capital. Apparently. Yes, but it doesn't make sense to think about that now. But he's thinking about it, Charlie. Actually, this is a follow-up question to one I asked at last year's meeting. I asked you what you would do with small amounts of money, since I manage a small portfolio worth under a million dollars.
And you know , I asked if you would do things like the networks that Benjamin Graham used to talk about and liquidation arbitrage, a lot of the things you used to do with the Buffett Partnership. And you recognized that you would n't just be a buy-and-hold investor, as you basically are today, but that we would be doing many of these transactions.
And Mr. Buffett, you also talked about how many of the investments you would make with less than a million dollars would have nothing to do with stocks and would be with other types of securities. And you did n't go into details, none of you gave more details than that. So, I was wondering if you could elaborate on how your investment strategy back then, with regard to non- equity investments, would differ from your buy-and-hold strategy today .
So, what kind of thing would you do ? Perhaps you could give me an example from the past that you did in the 50s or 60s, that would be great. Thanks. I thank. Well, if I were working with small amounts of money and I was happy doing it, that would open up thousands of possibilities for me. And you can very well, we certainly found stocks that were very wrongly priced, where we couldn't even come close to buying a sufficiently large position in Berkshire to make a difference, but where it would have made a difference if you were working with a million dollars.
But they would be titles; These would be actions taken by the United States and other places. We found some in Korea a few years ago that were ridiculously cheap, you know; You basically had to have very significant returns, but you couldn't put too much money into it . So, it could be in stocks, it could be in bonds, not in small amounts of currency, um.
But you know, I had a friend who used to buy tax liens, you know, Tom Knapp; He has some relatives here. An entrepreneurial person can find many different ways to make money. You'll find them, mostly in small stocks, if you're working with small amounts of money. They will be involved in small actions or in some specialized securities situations .
You wouldn't say that, Charlie, would you? Of course. You mentioned that you are 85% Benjamin Graham and 15% Phil Fisher. And you also said that if you had just $1 million today, you could generate returns of 50%. As I am a young investor, this is my question for the two of you. How did your investment strategy differ when you were still accumulating money instead of managing billions?
You focused on specific sectors, small capitalization, large capitalization, etc. Thanks. Well, managing a million dollars is a completely different game than managing Berkshire Hathaway or managing a fund of 20 or 50 billion dollars. If Charlie and I were managing a million dollars right now, or 100,000, we'd probably be looking for very small things.
We would be looking for small discrepancies in certain situations, and the opportunities are there and, periodically, they are extraordinary. But that's something we don't really think about anymore because our problem is managing 12 or 14 billion or whatever is coming in each year. This means we have to look for great deals and forget about what we used to do when we were very young.
Charlie? Yes, I'm glad I resolved that particular problem. He worked really hard on it when the two of us were doing it. We always... Yes. Yes. We searched in many stones and I used to have great returns on my float with my own income taxes. Between the time I received the money and paid it to the government, I often earned enough money to pay the tax.
But he worked for small amounts of money and did unusual things. He didn't tell me how to do it, though. Okay, station 10.
Comments 0