저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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영상은 피터 린치의 『One Up on Wall Street』 핵심 교훈 10가지를 소개한다. 주가는 장기적으로 기업 이익을 따라간다는 점, 거시경제·금리 예측은 불가능하다는 점, 이해하지 못하는 기업에 투자하지 말 것, 주가 하락 중 무분별한 추가매수 금지, 과도한 성장률(50~100%) 기업 경계, 분산투자보다 엄선한 소수 종목 보유, 부채 많은 기업 회피, 독자적 리서치 필수 등을 강조한다. 1980년대 중소기업이 고용을 창출했다는 사례와 일본 시장 과열 사례를 든다. 장기적으로 기업 이익 성장에 따라 주식시장이 우상향할 것이라는 견해를 제시한다.
다듬은 글
10 investing gems from Peter Lynch's one up on Wall Street apart from Benjamin Grahams the intelligent investor there is no better book to get started for beginners than Peter Lynch's one up on Wall Street the easygoing and simplistic stock picking style discussed in this book brought Lynch great success in his profession as a fund manager at the US mutual fund company Fidelity the best part about this book is that it's low on number crunching but high on anecdotal stories moreover readers are given a clear picture on how to get off to a good start in the stock market one up on Wall Street offers insight into the mind of one of the greatest money managers of all times Lynch helps you discover that he is a normal guy like you and me who thinks rationally believes in doing his own independent research on companies asks plenty of questions and gets caught off guard by the market at times just like anyone else anyone thinking about buying individual stocks must read this book before they ever make their first stock purchase while there are numerous lessons that Lynch dispels through this book here are my personal top 10 that really stand out I have in fact benefited from incorporating each of these lessons in my personal investment philosophy I hope these also add to your investment Arsenal so let's start right here Peter Lynch's 10 investing gems understand there's 100% correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's has done very well as a company right the stock has done very well people worry about too much money supply what's happened to the price of oil whe who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court the ozone layer it has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go up but what they will say to you Peter is that as you know and why am I telling you this but I it's fun to tell you this they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on the movies or whatever they do and and therefore you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on earning they are very important but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do Alan Green span's the head of the Federal Reserve right he cannot predict interest rates yes he'd be the first to he can influence them but he can't predict them he cannot predict what long-term interest rates are going to be one year from now 2 years from now three years he's even surprised how low they are now so how am I supposed to predict the interest rates how am I supposed to predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 82 1982 we had a 20% prime rate 14% unemployment 12% inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen all of a sudden we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about in the paper so it's crazy to think about these things there's also this idea never invest in something you don't really know you I mean that that was part of that's why you went out on the road so much if I don't understand that I don't want to yeah the key thing is when the stock goes from 10 to 6 if you understand what they do and you know they're financially solvent you're fine if you don't understand it you can call a psychic Haw mine but if you if you don't understand it you're probably going to do the the wrong thing you know if you understand exactly what they're doing it's g 10 to six you'll buy more if you're confused to start with you'll say Well it must be something wrong there and then you're out a lot of times stocks are going to decline I mean some of my best stocks have gone from 18 to 8 then to sometimes to 40 and some are gone from 18 to zero but at least I wasn't adding to it on the way to zero a lot of G so if it's going down you're not adding to it I mean sometimes you are if the fundamentals are getting better are the same yeah but through detering one understand the nature of the companies you own and the specific reasons for holding the stock a lot of people buy stocks with the mentality this stock is really going up this reasoning of buying stocks has never worked in the long run you might buy a stock that is going up in price and you might make some money in the short run but in the long run this basis of buying stocks is going to suck you into a NeverEnding Whirlpool of losses a stock is just a share in a business so it's important to understand what is the kind of business that you are getting into and then you must have specific reasons to buy and hold the stock again reasons that have less to do with how the stock price is doing and more to do with how the business is doing the 500 largest companies in the 80s eliminated 3 million jobs eliminated 3 million and we added 18 million these 2.2 million businesses started 2.2 million businesses started in the ' 80s now some of them didn't make it but if an average they have 10 employees today that's 22 million jobs what the only thing that creates wealth the only thing that creates taxes to pay for all these wonderful things is jobs there is something magic about jobs and jobs come from companies starting that's what I try to say small companies create jobs create all the jobs right so that's what I'm this is not voodoo economics this is the real thing you have to encourage people to take some risk to put their money out and go start a business it's a risky proposition two consider the size of a company if you expect it to profit from a specific product you might say I love Maggie in fact everyone loves Maggie so Nestle must be a very good stock let me ask you great but what if Maggie is just 1% of Nestle's total sales and the products that contribute the remaining 99% aren't that great does Nestle still sound like a great investment just on the basis of one great product that contributes just 1% of its sales now what do you say see companies selling products or services that everyone love or is talking about is worthy of considering as a potential investment but as an investor the greater task for you is to know how much of that great product or service means to the company if it does not contribute meaningfully to the company's sales and profits it can't be the core reason for buying that stock for Drupal and six they go up Eightfold in 9 years that's how you get a huge stock in a decade there's not a lot of these but they're they very powerful and the best part is you don't have to catch them just as they're taking off the beauty of growth companies is you have plenty of time if they're going to grow for 5 10 20 30 years you don't have to be there the first year or the second year you could have bought Walmart 10 years after they went public and made 30 times your money what makes a company grow earning so quickly either it is a rapidly growing industry or it's a rapidly growing company in a slow growth industry rapid Revenue growth and Rapid earnings growth are the Hallmarks of a fast grower you just can't buy any stock with hot earnings and hot sales you have to check the balance sheet make sure the company can keep growing huge run I mean the market was 4,000 just you know 2 and a half years ago and it ran up to 8,300 in August and you know like any big rally sometimes it backs off I mean it's healthy in fact I mean I'd rather gone down 1,000 points than gone to 12,000 if you look at Japan Japan went from 5,000 to 15,000 on their Dow it was fairly priced at 15,000 on earnings and everything else then it went to 40,000 and that caused 7 years of inflated risk real estate people over spending and basically they've been in recession for 5 or six years because their Market went up too high the market goes too high you're discounting earnings 7 8 10 years out three be suspicious of companies with growth rates of 50 to 100% a year growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell goes a famous saying in the same way companies that are growing at rates of 50 to 100% annually must be looked at with suspicion one reason for this is that such growth cannot continue for long for reasons like higher competition that might want to take a pie of this growth opportunity the second reason is that if such a company still wants to push for higher growth for a few more years it might have to infuse more capital in the business this could either mean stretching the balance sheet by taking on debt or diluting Equity by issuing new shares both these are bad OMS for existing shareholders what is more one year of slowdown in growth can come as a shock to the stock market and might lead to a sharp fall in the stock price diversification is a big mistake I call it die wors ification with the you buy this thing that might balance this other thing and they both go down so I don't believe in diversification at all I would own one stock but what I do believe in is if I find 10 good stories they're all equally attractive I buy all 10 and I wait to see them unfold it's like watching 10 poker games 10 games of stud poker you watch the cards turn over Story three gets better story six slips story seven stays the same but it goes up 50% you sell seven and buy two that's all I do so if they're equally attractive I buy all 10 then gradually some story says oh my God this is getting better and better and guess what the stock just went down so you keep watching the 10 stories and magically because of that rule of stocks going up and down a lot then you load up you really you know take a big Advantage so four distrust diversification which usually turn out to be diversifications experience suggests that most diversifications Acquisitions of companies in the same area or a different one altogether are done to satisfy the egos of promoters and not for real business reasons and most of the diversifications end up as diversifications so watch out for companies that are blazing guns in this space five people get incredibly valuable fundamental information from their jobs that may not reach the professional for months or even years not many small investors appreciate this but it is one of the best ways they can pick great stocks if I'm a banker I know what makes up a bank's balance sheet and I also know which banks are worth banking upon as Investments considering this I would be a fool eyeing biotechnology or it stocks especially when I don't understand the ABCs of these industries but just go by what my broker or friend advises me of course I might enhance my circle of competence and learn about these industries but my first hunting ground must be banking six separate all stock tips from the Tipper even if the Tipper is very smart very rich and his or her last tip went up even if I love my fund manager for his Stellar track record and managing my money Towing all his stock ideas without doing my own research would be fraught with extreme risks the stock he is recommending on CNBC might form just 0 point 00 1% of his total portfolio I might be so enamored by his story on the stock that I may buy it in bulk and it forms around 10% of my small portfolio now when this stock crashes the fund manager would appear smart for taking a very small risk with it I might lose my shirt so the idea is to always do an independent research on a stock before you even think of buying it seven invest in simple companies that appear dull mundan out of and haven't caught the street such a company is rarely covered by stock analysts and bought by fund managers so there is a great chance that the stock could be available at a great bargain eight companies that have no debt can go bankrupt this is the most important lesson that you would remember or forget when it comes to identifying the right businesses for investment companies that borrow money to grow their businesses might appear good because they are growing but more often than not such companies get so much Intoxicated by the growth that they end up making a mess of their balance sheets and in the process destroying whatever shareholder wealth they created during growth years look at realy and construction companies and you won't have to look anywhere else for such examples I made 10 or 15 times my money in Dunkin Donuts those are the kind of stocks I can understand if you don't understand it doesn't work this is the single biggest principle and it bothers me that people have very careful their money the public when they buy a refrigerator they get a consume reports they buy micro UB and they do that they ask people what's the best kind of radar range what kind of car to buy they do research on the apartments when they go to when they go on a trip to Wyoming they get the mobile travel guide or California when they go to Europe they get the Michelin travel guide people will hear a tip on a bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings in It Before Sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions in program training that is garbage they didn't do any research they bought a piece of junk they didn't look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it and that's what we were being driven to and it's self-fulfilling the public does terrible investing and they they say they don't have a chance it's because that's the way they're that's the way they're acting I'm trying to convince people there is a method there are reasons for stocks that go up uh Coca-Cola this is very magic it's a very magic number easy to remember Coca-Cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30 fold Bethlehem Steel is earning less than they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago are not lottery tickets there a company behind every stock if a company does well the stock does well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market they try to predict interest rates if anybody predict interest rates right three times in a row they'd be a billionaire considering there's not that many billionaires on the planet they can't be that many people that can prict interest rates because there'd be lots of billionaires and no one can predict the economy I a lot of people in this room were around in 1981 and ' 82 when we had a 20% prime rate with double digit inflation double digit digit unemployment I don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it I didn't read I studyed all this stuff I don't remember anybody tell we got the worst recession since the depression but I'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market's going to do it'd be terrific to know that the Dow Jones average a year from now would be X that we're going to have a full scale recession our interest rates going to be 12% that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so I've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics you've wasted 12 minutes and I I I really believe that nine devote at least an hour a week to investment research adding up your dividends and figuring your gains and losses doesn't count I have been shouting this from the rooftop of saful live Shack all this time but not many seem to hear so now let me tell you how much Peter Lynch believes in the power of independent investment research in the success of an investor Lynch suggests that you must invest at least as much time and effort in choosing a new stock as you would in choosing a new refrigerator say to yourself I think this company is going to earn something in the future if it's already discounting that if it's selling a huge multiple you say it's already it has to work and then it's only going to stay even so you have to say yourself if I'm right how much am I going to make if if I'm wrong how much I going to lose that's the risk reward ratio in stock shop we talk about if I'm right I hope I'm going to double trip my money if I'm wrong May I'll lose 30 40% that's a favor ratio you say if I'm right the Stock's not going to go up it's already discounting terrific things if discounting terrific things are already in the stock I don't know these public companies out there here's a company I really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well the competitors are doing poorly I think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60 all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find companies you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do not a like the one from overpriced the fairly priced so there was fairly place at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know five for four sale you 10 when in doubt tune in later now this is where the emotional part about investing comes into play I have spent 10 days researching a stock and thankfully on the 11th day I find that it's a great business and even available at a good discount to the intrinsic value so it seems like a perfect buy now what in the world should stop me from buying this stock well here are some questions that must stop me from buying that stock call it XYZ instantly and I bias towards XYZ just because I've spent 10 days researching it am I getting overconfident with my analysis am I impressed by just the company's recent performance do I like the stock just because it has fallen in price do I like it just because because my friend advised it to me in the first place if the answer to any of these questions makes me uncomfortable it's an indication that I must sleep on the stock idea instead of buying the stock then there have been numerous instances where I have waited weeks or even months before committing money to a stock idea I liked as Peter Lynch says the key organ for investing is the stomach not the brain the 15 to 20 days after I complete my analysis on a stock helped me know whether my stomach is ready to digest the stock even when the Mind answers in the affirmative write six times out of 10 but if I'm right and make a double or triple occasionally it off sets the times you lose 30 or 40% in fact you could be right a third of the time as long as you have a lot of good results so when you're short you can only make 90% when you're long you can make 10 fold or fivefold so I think long is the way to be corporate profits have growing about 7 or 8% a year that means they double including dividends about every 10 years could duple every 20 go up Eightfold every 40 that's the kind of numbers you're interested b a 10-year bond today is over 2% so I think the stock market's the best place to be for the next 10 20 30 years the next 2 years no idea I've never known what the next two years are going to bring take a coin out and flip it I have no idea what the next th000 points going to be the next 6,000 points going to be up the next 14,000 points going to be up the next 20,000 points going be up but you don't know where the next thousand going to be could be down could be up nobody does and and it's futile to try and guess it corporate profits will be a lot higher 10 years from now they'll be a lot higher 20 years now that's what you got to rely on Microsoft didn't exist 20 years ago Staples didn't exist 20 years ago Federal Express didn't exist 20 years ago new companies will come along that's what makes didn't exist 20 years ago that's what makes Amgen has two1 billion drugs they didn't exist 20 years ago new companies will come along that's what makes this country work what do you say if you have read one up on Wall Street which are the other key lessons from Lynch you learn from this book please share in the comments section below
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