Mohamed El-Erian on what could interrupt the 'everything rally'

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결론: 현재 '모든 자산이 오르는' 상승장은 막대한 유동성과 경기 회복이 맞물린 결과이며, 정책 실수나 시장 충격이 없다면 유지될 수 있으나 향후 몇 달간 시험대가 많다. 상승장 진단: 원자재(목재), 세계 주식, 비트코인 등 거의 모든 자산이 급등 중이며, 유동성 공급과 경기 회복 확대가 동시에 작용하고 있다. 연준 전망: 이번 주 연준은 테이퍼링을 논의하지 않을 가능성이 크고, 성장 전망을 다시 상향하며 인플레이션 압력과 시장 과열 신호를 무시할 것으로 본다. 그 결과 6월쯤 연준이 뒤처졌다는 우려가 부각되고, 나중에 급브레이크를 밟는 상황이 가장 큰 시장 충격 요인이 될 수 있다. 정책 조기 신호 필요성: 지금 완만하게 브레이크를 밟는 것(조기 테이퍼링 신호)이 나중에 급격히 제동하는 것보다 낫다고 본다. 캐나다central은행의 테이퍼링 중단과 자본이득세 뉴스에 대한 시장의 비교적 담담한 반응을 참고로 든다. 인플레이션 리스크: 현재의 인플레이션을 일시적(transitory)으로 보는 연준의 시각에 동의하지 않으며, 공급 측 압력(농산물, 산업재, 일부 노동시장, 반도체 등)이 확산되어 지속적 인플레이션으로 이어질 수 있다고 우려한다. 지속 인플레이션이 현실화되면 연준의 급격한 긴축과 더 큰 시장 반응이 불가피하다. 지속 인플레이션 기준: 기저효과만으로 설명되지 않고 공급 측 요인이 확산되는 흐름이 이어지는지가 핵심이며, 인플레이션율이 약 2.5~3.5% 수준에서 한동안 머무르는 상황을 우려 수준으로 제시한다. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 자산 랠리는 유지되나, 6월 전후 연준 정책 방향과 인플레이션 지표가 가장 큰 변동 요인이라는 입장이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. joining us right now is another hotly anticipated guest allianz and gramercy advisor muhammad al-aryan who also happens to be the president of queens college cambridge um muhammad let's talk about what what mike was just mentioning the somewhat indecisive rally um he's right you have to squint to see it because the journal also points out that this is the everything rally you've got everything from lumber prices to stock markets around the globe to bitcoin all all sorts of different asset classes that have really been skyrocketing what do you take away from that what do you think so i think it is the everything rally i think it reflects the impact of continued massive liquidity and a significant pickup in economic recovery so you have both things coming together and as long as we don't get either a policy mistake or or some sort of market dislocation these two things should keep the markets going but i want to stress that we have a lot of tests coming up in the next few months you you mentioned this week you have an op-ed out this morning in which you say the fed is is probably not going to do anything this week but but you think that's bad news i mean usually we look at it when the fed doesn't do anything and the markets say fantastic great news what concerns you here about them not doing anything so remember we start with the paradigm that the fed is not thinking about thinking about tapering right and it will once again revise up its economic outlook having made major growth revision just a month ago is going to revise it up again i think it's going to ignore the inflationary pressure building up it's going to ignore the pockets of market excesses and simply try to keep things as is that they want an uneventful they want to snooze fast they want to know drama meeting and i suspect becky they will get it and then we'll all turn our attention to june and start asking the question what if the fed falls behind and one of the problem with this outcome-based approach that the fed is taking is that the risk of falling behind is high and then you have to slam on the brakes and that's the one thing that can really disrupt the markets if we get them slamming the brakes so i would rather see them slowly tap their brakes now then have a very high risk of them slamming the brakes down the road i i almost wonder how they could possibly pull that off muhammad because even if they were to say something or indicate something let's just say they point to inflation and how it's been growing we get inflation numbers on friday again right after the fed meeting but if they were to start saying we're thinking about thinking about tapering what would the market's reaction be i i don't i don't know how the market ever is able to take um hints at something instead of getting smacked over the head so becky the question is what's the alternative and we saw last week the bank of canada um stopped tapering and we also saw the market shrug off correctly shrub golf correctly the news on the capital gains tax yes there was you know a moment of momentary sell-off but we shrugged it off so i would rather that this reaction come sooner than later i'm really worried that what they hope is transitory inflation is going to end up being persistent inflation and if we end up in a persistent inflation world they're going to have to slam on the brakes and and the market reaction then would be much worse than what it would be if they just tape it a little bit now what for for you would be the definition of persistent inflation how long would you have to see things um kind of spiking higher and by how much it comes down by the source of inflation so base effects i dismiss the fact that demand is outpacing supply i dismiss but we're starting to see the supply side inflict more inflationary pressure we're seeing it in agriculture product we're seeing an industrial product we're starting to see it even in bits of the labor market we see it in semiconductor the list is getting longer and longer so the concern is that the inflation comes from the supply side that then leads not to a once and then back but to an inflationary process and if you're not careful that's going to be much harder to control down the road and that means in terms of numbers inflation is anywhere between two and a half to three and a half for a whil