Jim Cramer on how he expects markets to react to this week's earnings

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결론: 실적 시즌 초반 기대치는 낮고 애플 실적이 핵심이며, 과열 후 실적 발표 시 매도 가능성도 있다는 취지. 실적 일정: 이번 주 테슬라 실적(당일 밤)과 빅테크(FANG) 발표가 이어지고, 중순 에너지주, 금요일에는 애플 실적이 주목 대상이다. 애플: 도이치뱅크는 기대치가 낮다고 보며, 애플이 고용 확대 계획을 발표한 점과 맥(Mac) 신제품 효과가 실적에 영향을 줄 수 있다고 봤다. 주가는 이미 크게 올랐다. 실적 반응: 많은 종목이 실적 전 크게 올라 있어 좋은 뉴스에도 매도가 나올 수 있다는 우려가 제기됐다. 진행자는 좋은 뉴스에 매도되는지를 확인하려 한다. 통신·반도체: 스카이웍스, 마벨 등 반도체 기업의 5G 수요가 강하다고 평가했다. AT&T는 무선 사업이 양호했고, 버라이즌이 가장 약한 실적이었다고 언급했다. 경기 정점 논쟁: 코스틴은 국내 성장이 정점이며 향후 3% 수익률을 예상, 연말 S&P500 목표치는 4,300이다. 크라이머는 이 전망이 지나치게 보수적이라고 비판했다. 여러 애널리스트가 이번 분기를 인플레이션 정점으로 보며, 정점이라면 금리 인상이 필요 없다는 해석도 나온다. 인프라·출장 수요: 오티스의 수주가 증가하고 도시 건설 재개 신호가 보인다고 전했다. 출장 수요는 2019년 수준으로 회복하기 어려울 수 있다는 의견이 나완다. 리스크: 실적 기대가 이미 주가에 반영된 점, 정점 논쟁에 따른 변동성. 출연자 전망: 크라이머는 실적이 양호하고 추정치도 좋다고 보나, 시장 반응은 불확실하다고 봤다.

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01. but earnings as we said guy is going to be the lead for most of the week uh set with tesla tonight jim and then we move into some of the big fang names as we get into mid midweek energy names on friday what's going to be the the thing to watch look i think it's going to be apple uh i think that apple is a deutsche bank note today saying that expectations are low they announced a 20 increase in their uh the amount of jobs they're going to create pretty big numbers but i think that this is the one that holds the key in the sense that it still is the biggest it's done a tremendous amount of work with max which i think the mac actually could move the needle and david when i look at it it has moved substantially and that's why i think it's important because a lot of stocks have moved substantially into earnings and typically that means sell-off right so does it sell off on good news that's what i want to know okay so tell me what are your expectations i think it doesn't sell off i think i think that the cycle i we i speak to too many semiconductor companies like skyworks last week marvel technologies 5g is so strong it's here and maybe it's here with t-mobile but i i think that verizon wants it i thought that att acquitted itself very well uh was not a bad quarter for their wireless business i thought frankly verizon was the weakest of the yes it was yeah yes it was but i think that it can triumph over the negative expectations there is a theme carl that is uh very much plays into what jay pal is going to talk about if he wants to talk about inflation which is most of the analysts i follow are saying this is the peak quarter now david carson i think with his excellent note last night is really talking about pete quarter if it's peak quarter why raise rates carl no need that's uh that's exactly what the the fed would probably say jim and to quote costin uh he says domestic growth uh is peaking and forward equity returns are likely to be modest with a three percent gain in the s p to our year-end target they're looking for 4 300 jim does that make sense to you that uh with peak growth and and peak positioning some argue that we sort of just turn our way around here for at least the summer i it's funny i i love carson i turned i turned to my wife after i read it it was like sunday and i read the thing i said hey one of my faves is real negative and you know constant doesn't regard as being negative i'm sure he doesn't but he would never say negative he would never say no not allowed to say negan but if you're peak you you can't be as bullish three percent from here is not exactly overly exciting no no i think costa's got to be called out on this yeah he was basically saying hey you know what we're kind of done yeah if that's his target then he's sort of saying that right i mean i finished it and i said dave i'm not going to read you anymore might be right so you know call him out not it's just it he might very well be right who knows but then he had all the you know charts of all the earnings carl and i thought the earnings looked good the estimates looked good but it was a real buzz kill i mean carson joined that group of people who just said hey good to see you come back later and i was hoping you would say we're going to see earnings i mean i was i was on the phone at judy judy marks today from otis oh my i mean there's the beginning of the opening of the u.s 18 orders in 10 organic growth carl when you speak to her she just get out of new york she says get out of new york you will see cranes everywhere atlanta houston west coast and i love this and this is going to just be right in david's face david keeps saying there's no business trap no i didn't say there's no i'm questioning whether it's going to come back to the levels that it once had in 2000 right so that was that is a misstatement no it's just hyperbole yes but um one of the things she said was you ask do you have are you vaccinated right and if you're vaccinated i'll come see you that's the dial even if the cdc or whatever there's whole you know the florida governor you can't restrict people to do that but what's amazing is business people david if they know that you're vaccinated and i'm vaccinated well you know what we're going to dinner right big it's big and you and i are going to go to dinner don't you think it's big can't wait till carl can join us i think it's big yeah it's basically not in coston's wheelhouse no no but carl i you know i still think there is a question to be asked in terms of whether business travel and or activity on that level will come back to the levels that once saw in 2019 perhaps internal travel that that desire for an executive to go see their you know that may be muted for some time as opposed to when you're competing for customer