저자: 시놉주식 · 한국인
요약 보기
SOXX는 240달러 저항을 돌파하지 못하고 횡보 중이며, 과거 3개월간 큰 하락을 예상해 왔다. 240달러 돌파 전까지는 비관적 시각을 유지. 나스닥과 SOXX의 움직임이 분리되고 있어 투자 분리가 필요할 수 있다고 봄. 엔비디아는 헤드앤숄더 고점 패턴으로 130달러 테스트 가능성을 제시. 다만 횡보 특성상 방향은 열려 있으며 참고만 하라고 명시.
다듬은 글
Hello, SX continues its sideways trend. It’s been moving in such a tiresome manner that it’s become tiresome. I feel like I’ve been telling you for about three months that I’m anticipating a significant decline, and that perspective still holds true. Somehow, it seems I’ve become a complete pessimist, but I am not.
I am someone who views US stocks with a positive outlook, believing they eventually rise and trend upwards. I would only regain that optimism if it broke through $240 in this current zone, but since it keeps hitting resistance and falling, I’ve ended up becoming a negative sentiment for the past three months.
Let me analyze the chart. Currently, after a sharp drop during the carry phase, a rebound occurred, but it failed to break through the $240 level again from where it dropped significantly, resulting in another large decline. Although it rebounded strongly while raising its base, you can see that it failed to break through $240 multiple times.
Therefore, I was looking for a good opportunity to run when a slight rebound followed by a big decline occurred. However, as the sideways trend dragged on, the "Crisp Back" went on a winning streak, leaving me stranded like a duck left stranded in the Nakdong River. Nevertheless, my view that it will make a comeback remains unchanged.
Previously, the wave patterns of the Nasdaq and SXX flowed very similarly. They followed a very similar pattern until Nvidia recently surged, and along with it, SX and USD rose tremendously, causing the wave patterns to change. While the Nasdaq continued to trend upward, SXX is no longer able to raise its highs and appears to be breaking after a carry trade.
Until now, the movements were similar whether investing in SXX or the Nasdaq Backend, so there was no need to invest heavily in either; the movements were so similar that it was unnecessary to invest heavily in either. However, since they are currently exhibiting completely different patterns, there may be a need to separate investments in SXX and Nasdaq.
However, the Nasdaq Backend is currently too high. Returning to SX, it needs to break through $240, but it has failed to do so and is continuing this sideways trend. Although it seemed to be forming a triangular convergence pattern by raising its lows, it broke this short-term uptrend line. Once it broke, what happened to that uptrend line?
We can see that the uptrend line, which had been receiving support and rising, became resistance once it was broken. It has been broken over and over again. Currently... It is currently facing slight resistance at the 1-year line, and there are three resistance zones starting from here. The 223b level is where it touches the 1-year line, and it is also a spot that has previously encountered many points of contact and resistance.
Therefore, this could act as the first resistance level. If it breaks through this resistance, the short-term trend line—which I mentioned earlier has turned into resistance—could act as resistance. Even if it breaks through $223, the short-term trend line could act as resistance, and the most important level, $240, could also become resistance.
Since there are three visible resistance points, even if it rises further from here, the downside of a potential sharp drop remains. Let's erase all that and look at the chart in reverse. Looking at it in reverse, it is currently falling while continuously facing resistance around $210. However, the lows are continuously rising.
This is when viewed in reverse. If it finds support here and breaks through this resistance zone to rise, a larger decline could occur. Conversely, if it breaks the current short-term trend line and goes down, it could fall further. If that happens, as I mentioned, $240... It could go for a test, but if it breaks through the $210 level, a significant drop could occur.
That is what I predicted; this is the shape it takes when it returns. Because the direction is open in both directions during this sideways movement, just because my perspective predicts a larger decline does n't mean it will definitely happen; however, my view is that I am anticipating a bigger drop.
Regarding the Nasdaq PAC futures chart as well, I have mentioned the upper part of the ascending channel several times. Since a correction down to the lower part of the channel can occur at any time once it reaches the upper part, even taking that into account, a correction is certainly possible. In the case of Nvidia, it formed a head and shoulders pattern near the high point.
A rebound occurred from there, but even if it rises further, it could crash back down at the shoulder line and the head. It could crash immediately to test $130, or even if it rises a little more, it could face resistance again near the shoulder or head and go to buy at $30. Therefore, for Nvidia as well, this high-point pattern in the current zone looks very dangerous.
My perspective is that since the market could turn into dried [ __ ] from $145 down to its peak, unless it breaks through that high again, it will likely crash and head to test the $130 level. I am simply sharing my viewpoint, so please do not blindly follow my lead. I am currently suffering from a cold myself, so I hope you all stay safe and have a great weekend. Thank you.
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