저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오는 현재 미국 경제가 장기 부채 사이클과 단기 부채 사이클의 하강 국면 초기에 있으며 스태그플레이션(저성장 1% 안팎, 인플레이션 3.5% 수준) 환경에 진입했다고 진단한다. 거시 경기 진단: 2020년 코로나 이후 정부 재정 지출과 연준의 대규모 화폐 발행(약 4조 달러)으로 경기 부양이 이뤄졌으나, 이후 금리 인상으로 긴축 국면에 들어섰고 현재 경기 사이클의 정점을 지나 수축 국면에 있다고 본다. 금리와 자산 흐름: 실질금리가 과거 마이너스에서 플러스(약 175bp)로 올라와 현금 매력이 커졌고, 이에 따라 강세장은 끝났다고 평가한다. 버블 자산인 기술주, 사모펀드, 벤처캐피탈, 암호화폐 등에서 자금이 이탈하고 있으며, 주거용 부동산도 하락하지만 가계 재무 상태는 과거보다 양호하다고 본다. 부채와 재정 리스크: 미국 정부는 지출이 수입을 초과하고 부채 한도에 근접해 있으며, 국채 수요 약화(지정학적 요인 포함)로 조달이 어려워지는 문제가 있다고 지적한다. 디폴트 공포가 일부 존재하나 당장 위기는 아니라는 입장이다. 정책 제언: 정부는 세금 또는 화폐 발행 중 하나로 재원을 마련해야 하는 딜레마에 처해 있으며, 교육과 인프라 등 생산성을 높이는 투자로 장기적으로 재정 적자를 개선해야 한다고 강조한다. 주식시장 전망: 성장 둔화와 긴축 통화정책으로 주식시장에는 중장기적으로 부정적 압력이 지속될 것으로 보며, 현재 시장은 대체로 적정 가치에 근접했으나 여전히 다소 고평가 상태라고 본다. 큰 폭의 약세장을 예상하지는 않는다. 진행자는 이 영상 내용에 대한 시청자의 동의 여부를 댓글로 묻고 있다.
다듬은 글
the biggest issue is that there's more spending than we have income and that's a problem the question is where are you going to get the money from Ray dalio is one of the most well-known macroeconomic investors in the world having started Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and over time building it into the world's largest hedge fund when Ray Dalia speaks the investment World listens and recently reappeared in an exclusive interview on CNBC where he gave his updated thoughts on where he thinks the current economy stands where we are in the short and long-term debt Cycles as well as where he believes the markets are headed over the next few years first let's hear dalio's opinion on where we are along the economic cycle I mean these things happen over and over again we're now in the 12th and a half cycle you know these Cycles you know how the Cycles work your 12 and a half Cycles since 1945 1945 was the New World Order you know new monetary system and you know what happens you get a funky economy weakness and so on so what we had of course in 2020 with the combination of covid and then also the move from the right to the left it was a distribution of wealth and so how did you do that government had to send out a bunch of checks and the Federal Reserve where'd the government get the money from the Federal Reserve lent it so we have an imbalance and of course that put a lot of money in the system you've got the demand you've got the cycle classic cycle right stimulation credit becomes debt then you have inflation then you have a tightness monetary policy and so where are we so we now in a classic spot where we've got a relatively High real interest rate real interest rates went from mine minus 175 basis points the plus right 175 basis points right you've got a cash rate that's relatively High cash used to be trash now cash is relatively attractive and if cash is relatively attractive that means that the Bull Run is over and this becoming clear that we are well past the top of this economic cycle and that we are experiencing the contraction of the economy in the last 10 years before kovid the economy was booming where interest rates were down unemployment was low and money was cheap to access which created economic expansion and optimism in the economy but in 2020 we had a big shock to the economy we had a lot of friction between political parties and the U.S changed political leadership the Federal Reserve printed a lot of money to combat the weakness in the economy which stimulated the economy but also created inflation and now we've pushed a good economy as far as it can go the government can no longer push the economy stimulus button and as with all Cycles we now face the contraction you have the classic movement of course as rates go up and money becomes tight you lose the parts of the economy the parts of the market that are the bubble parts that needed the cash flow right right use so you see the tech stocks come down all of that come down you see private Equity you see Venture Capital because they needed cash all of that comes down as the economy gets to the top of the short-term cycle economic bubbles start to form and as we start to go down so does the entire economy starting with the economic bubbles it seems that we are still in the early stages of the economic contraction as we're seeing right now only the bubble areas are starting to be seriously affected as the government begins tightening economic policies and interest rates begin to rise money is being pulled out of speculative assets like cryptocurrency Venture Capital which is very reliant on credit and speculative tech companies that do not yet produce profits these are all signs of the early stages of an economic contraction but as dalio explains things are beginning to get more serious what we have here is that there was quite a lot of bubbles in this so you could see which sectors are going down you can see which stocks are going down right you see the tech stocks you see the you see real estate going down residential real estate goes down but doesn't mean that their families are hurt because the household sector is in a better financial position than it ever was so you're seeing this type of contraction so it's going down and we're having something close to a stag let's say a stag pleasure meaning maybe three and a half and I think you're going to see inflation come down to this and then because of the way it's calculated it'll go up a bit and so you see that kind of in a an environment with something close to maybe a one percent growth rate right essentially what dalio is seeing happen is a stagflation environment a combination of economic stagnation and high inflation which is economic weakness at the same time as high inflation which is a very unusual situation because usually inflation comes as a result of a booming economy where interest rates are down unemployment is low demand for products and services are higher and employees start looking for higher pay in other words inflation comes as a result of a healthy growing economy but stagflation is an unusual economic scenario where inflation is high in an economy that is struggling where unemployment is rising companies are not as profitable and salaries are staying still this is a particularly painful environment for the entire economy especially those controlling the monetary policy as actions to control inflation like raising interest rates that typically work in normal conditions will make a bad economic environment worse and that is what Ray dalio is currently anticipating in the U.S as he said he predicts inflation will not quite go back to where the FED wants it it might go down to about three and a half percent but it will eventually rise again at the same time he also sees the economic growth staying quite low as he said about one percent annually so we should expect slow economic growth over the coming years this is what is likely to happen with the short-term debt cycle but on top of the short-term debt cycle we also have the long-term debt cycle that rises and falls about once every 75 years and while everyone is currently focused on the short-term debt cycle Rey also cautions that he is seeing problems emerge from the long-term debt cycle that has been developing since 1945.
but what's also happening in that cycle is since 1945 is that we then have the accumulation of a lot of debt and money okay so we deal with things like the debt ceiling debt ceiling matter does it matter how much debt we have and then you have a situation where there's used to be a free market supply demand but now you've got the Federal Reserve who is now taking it buying it on the balance sheet so it's not the supply demand so you've got that Dynamic very very classically going I don't think people are paying enough attention to the big cycle they're the short-term Cycles since World War II they've averaged about seven six or seven years plus or minus about three years that's what we're in a classic one of those but we keep building up the debt and then there were issues in terms of the the issue of the dollar and what's happening in terms of the world and the value of money over the last few years the US government has seen a significant increase of his national debt due to the economic impact of the pandemic and the lockdowns that stopped people from working so the U.S government had to very quickly inject a lot of money into the economy to ensure that people still had money this of course came in the form of stimulus checks to people and businesses but also came in the form of a major growth investment like infrastructure projects to create more jobs but how did the government get all this money well the government borrows money by issuing new government bonds in other words debt and selling them to the Federal Reserve which prints new money so the US government went further and further in to debt by selling new government bonds to the FED who printed about four trillion dollars of new money which then triggered the massive inflation we're seeing today but the problem is that the U.S continues to spend more money than it earns and because the debt ceiling is already being hit they can't add new debts to replace the old debt so now there's a small fear that the U.S might default on their debts which would trigger the downslope of the long-term debt cycle as the debt burden becomes unsustainable the US also faces a problem of reduced demand for their newly printed bonds internationally which also adds to the issue since less people are willing to buy U.S debt making it harder for the US to raise money while there's no crisis yet some wheels are in motion that can trigger the downslope of the long-term debt cycle so how does Ray dalio see the situation play out over the coming years but I think that this type of recession is not a bad recession it's a lot less bad than I thought it would be because of the fact of How It's Distributing and and shrinking that credit at the same time though we have a real issue for the United States debt in the world because we're selling all this debt you know if you look at wealth instead of GDP wealth is a much better indicator of of things GDP is like looking at Revenue how much did you sell we have borrowed a lot of money okay and now we're having a problem selling that money around the world right and we're and it's also happening that this political situation geopolitical situation is weakening the demand for U.S bonds the good news is that this recession is not as bad as value anticipated but he is concerned that these issues around the U.S national debt the current deficit the debt ceiling and the weakening demand for U.S bonds are becoming a problem for the US and the global economy I I think the big the biggest issue is that there's more spending and I would say there probably needs to be more spending than we have income and that's a problem governments run the same as your household or a business in that with two exceptions they can print money and they can tax right so then when you spend more than you earn the question is and they're going to spend more than they're going to earn where are you going to get the money from are you going to get it from taxes and if you get it from taxes people fight because they don't want to give up their money or are you going to get it from printing the money and so how do you achieve that balance because it's do you spend less well it's a tough environment to spend less you have to spend more on do on defense you have to spend more on rebuilding the green initiative is expensive I mean we could education is expensive and so on so there's a dilemma that she is sitting in that we or we as a country are sitting in so how do you solve that problem there's a lot of things that you can invest in invest in that will produce returns for example I don't think we invest nearly as much in in the basic things like great education invest in those things that are going to produce productivity education is a good thing infrastructure is a good thing other things but it's a it this is part of a cycle a big cycle that has happened over and over and over again the major problem in the U.S is that the government is spending more money than it makes but not enough on the things that make the country more productive like education and infrastructure which helps close the deficit and reverses it over the long run dalio also talks about his thoughts on where he sees the stock market at the moment and where it's likely to be in the future to me it looks like that you know you have something substandard growth right you have that a woman called a recession we have I can't tell you is it one percent growth or something like that but it's a fairly stagnant growth that is not hurting the household sector as much as you would think in terms of that so that becomes tolerable for longer so then you look at the the markets as a whole so now you're going to have probably a tightening or a tighter monetary policy than existed and that's a net negative for the stock market but not in such a big number that it's like a big bearish thing so when I look at the market as a whole I would say okay well now it's seems closer to fairly priced probably still a bit High given that whole picture and there you have it since dalio still sees problems for the future of the economy he still thinks there will be negative pressure on the stock market for the foreseeable future but overall Guys these are Ray dalio's updated thoughts on the economy and the stock market for the current U.S economy do you agree with Ray dalio or do you have different thoughts about the economy let me know in the comments below thank you so much for watching guys if you enjoyed this video give it a thumbs up and consider subscribing if you haven't already and I will see you in the next video
Comments 0