저자: DanIves/보조출연:MandeepSingh · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 실적(블랙웰 매출 110억 달러, 분기 150~200억 달러 궤도) 확인 후 AI 투자 확대 지속을 강조. Ives는 엔비디아 7년 목표가 222~225달러, 시총 4~5조 달러 전망. 애플은 소비자 AI 확산으로 주당 60~70달러 추가 가치 주장. Singh는 네트워킹 매출 2분기 연속 감소와 중국 매출 절반 수준, 관세 리스크로 마진 압박을 지적하며 성장 둔화 가능성 제기.
다듬은 글
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, radio, news. With us now, after a long journey, and we're glad he took the time to start this morning with us , is Daniel Ives. Is he in Singapore? As you go back, like Gulfstream, you know, he has Gulfstream from Wedbush, head of the global technology sector at Wedbush.
Daniel, I just, I want to look into the future. What did you learn from Nvidia yesterday that is part of the AI story for the other 10 stocks? I mean, it all depends on Blackwell fueling it. I mean, 11 billion. This shows , I mean, it's going to be a trajectory of 15, 20 billion per quarter. So, if you had any concerns, it's the opposite.
Big tech, other businesses, they are redoubling their efforts. This is a multiplier effect for the entire technology industry . For every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip , $8 is spent in other areas of technology. What is your X axis? As you look at the evolution of technology, we'll talk about that with Mandeep Singh soon.
Dan Ives, do you have a timeframe for Nvidia? Do you have a suitable final cost for Nvidia? 7 years, what is that? I think two hundred and twenty-two—two hundred and twenty-five will ultimately be the base case for me. And again, you don't need any crazy metrics. They remain on this trajectory unless some "black swan" happens, which the "bears" will always hope for, as they have for the past ten years.
I think it will be a market capitalization of four, and eventually five trillion dollars. There is one "red phone" in the world for these chips, and its owner wears a black leather jacket, and his name is Jensen. Daniel, tell us about the catalysts for this company. I, you know, it's really unusual for Nvidia shareholders to look at the Bloomberg screen and see the stock down since the beginning of the year, well, a few percent.
Can't see green on the screen. What do you think is the next catalyst for these actions? So, look, I think the catalyst now, obviously for the future—is to continue to monitor the demand for Blackwell, right? And Nvidia, you know, they're going to have their conference in March. I think it will be a real spectacle.
For me, this is a launching pad for Jensen and for Nvidia. And look, I think there was a lot of noise without substance. And I'm going to continue, and we talked about this on the air, Deepseek Okay. is a "bullish" factor for Nvidia and large technology companies. This is not true at all, despite the fact that many skeptics shout "fire" in a crowded hall.
If you've just joined us, friends, we'll be joined in a moment by Mandeep Singh from Bloomberg Intelligence. Let's start with Daniel Ives from Wedbush , their head of technology. For those listening to Bloomberg Radio, it's important to note that Ives has Penn State Nittany Lions paraphernalia in the background this morning.
At Penn State, Dan Ives, they will have to buy Apple technology again. We had Mark Gurman 4-5-6 days ago and we started with a chip and you know, it's like talking to Mandeep Singh. And, to Dan Ives , Gurman spoke very fascinatingly about the technological truth of the Apple story. Do you agree? Oh, I think the best is yet to come.
Because I think so, and Gurman talked about it too , but the consumer AI revolution is coming to Cupertino. They are like toll collectors. Chinese app, American, Australian—it doesn't matter. In other words, it's about the installed base of devices. I continue to think that this will gradually add $60-70 per share, the AI story, additional services, and that's not even considering the new chip form factor and increasing control over their ecosystem.
Dan, how does the company position DeepSeek as a competitor in the market? I think, actually, just like the rest of the big tech companies. This is even positive: the more innovative the models become, the cheaper they are, the more usage options they have, and the more GPU power they have. In other words, that's why everyone is here, and you guys keep talking about what everyone is waiting for : where are the chinks in the armor?
Smoke, or is it an AI bubble? But we talked about this: two trillion in capital spending over the next three years . Big tech companies will spend $330 billion this year. You can look for cracks, but you won't find them here . And I think that's what you saw last night, you know, in terms of demand.
There wasn't any...I thought Jensen was even more optimistic than he was a few months ago. Daniel Ives, thank you very much. Get some sleep. Too early. He travels all over the world. Daniel Ives. That's right. from Wedbush. Retired Mandeep Singh joins us now, senior technology analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence .
The difference here, Mandeep , is that Ives is in the business of making buy, hold, sell recommendations in an attempt to make money . You look at the industry holistically. If I were Satya Nadella and listened to Nvidia yesterday, what would Microsoft take away from Nvidia's conference call? Yeah, look, Dan mentioned that Blackwell is successfully rolling out, bringing in $11 billion in revenue for the quarter.
So, this means that Nvidia is really confident in implementing its new architecture. In fact, they presented a plan for Blackwell Ultra. So they are moving very quickly in improving their chips. The only indicator that did n't look very good to me was the network direction. They experienced a second consecutive decline in revenue from network technologies .
And if you try to relate this to the size of clusters in AI, there are two main concepts: learning and inference. Training depends on the size of the clusters, and if you have a larger cluster, it needs to be networked for consistency to be used for training purposes. So, the fact that Nvidia's networking revenue has fallen consistently again, despite a very strong base, indicates some slowdown.
This indicates a possible pause in the construction of such large clusters, and Nvidia is most dependent on this trend. From this perspective, given their valuation, one might ask: is much already priced in for the future growth everyone is worried about? Will Nvidia be able to maintain this momentum in 2027, 2028, and beyond?
And I don't think we got an answer last night about what exactly might be driving this. Another important point worth noting is sales in China. They are only half of what they were before export controls were introduced . And their forecast doesn't take into account that if the tariffs go into effect, it will hit gross margins hard, which have already fallen by 300 basis points.
Mandeep, continuing on the topic, how did Jensen Huang characterize the tariff situation and the trading environment between China and the West? He didn't explain much , nor did the CFO, about what could go wrong. So far, all they have said is that sales in China are half what they were before the Biden administration imposed export controls.
And look, if they tighten export controls, which is a very likely scenario, given the administration's statements, then sales in China could drop to zero by the end of the year. And when you think about potential growth , I mean, given that Nvidia has set a trend of beating expectations and raising forecasts , which they did last night, you have to ask yourself, where is that growth going to come from ?
If sales in China , which once accounted for 20% of their total, are now much smaller, around 10%, will this affect the trend of exceeding expectations? We're joined by Mandeep Singh from Bloomberg Intelligence, who will talk about your technology assets.
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