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Hello, how are you? Good morning from Madrid. Here I am in the park, strolling on a perfect morning, because even the temperatures have dropped. It's Sunday, time to meditate, and what needs meditating is crystal clear. Here's something that doesn't add up: the stock markets. On the one hand, we're seeing that the famous " fan" stocks—and I'm referring specifically to Microsoft, Alfa, Alphabet, Meta, or Amazon—have seen how their stock prices have fallen sharply with each earnings release.
On the other hand, it's striking that even though these types of stocks represent 26% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, the S&P 500 has continued to rise. But the most striking thing, what catches my attention the most, is that the Vips index has continued to fall. Well, how can this be explained?
To explain it, the first thing we have to do is put the different pieces of the puzzle in their proper place. First, we're seeing that the most important chart in the world, as you can see, is the Global Credit Impulse chart. You can see that the Global Credit Impulse has practically collapsed. This fact...
What he's telling us is that the world economy is slowing down, okay, but this is already priced in by the markets; this is already priced in the FAN stock price, which has fallen so much. Secondly, the most important problem that central banks are facing right now isn't that raising interest rates will put a million people out of work in the United States.
No, that doesn't worry Powell. What really worries him and the members is the lack of liquidity in the bond markets. As you can see in the chart, you'll notice that FAN has been selling US bonds. You can see how its balance sheet has shrunk. This is one of the reasons why, look at the correlation with the FAN stock price.
You can see that the moment the US Federal Reserve reduced its balance sheet by selling bonds, the FAN stock price fell sharply. The liquidity problem is so significant that, as you know, Powell herself has told the primary dealers, who are responsible for providing liquidity to US public debt, that this is a consequence of the lack of purchases by US private banks.
They're up to their eyeballs in American bonds. They've met and said, "Okay, let's ask the question: do you think the US government, the US Treasury, should implement a bond buyback program to provide liquidity to the system?" Therefore, we must consider that this is being priced into the market. And this is the reason, as you can see in this chart, why the TLT ETF, which you know invests in long-term US government debt, has rebounded.
This is the reason why the American yield has peaked. Therefore, it gives the impression that the global slowdown is already priced in. And now what we're pricing in is, in a way, a reduction in long-term interest rates. Okay, and finally, what we've seen is that the sharp rise in interest rates has caused a sharp rise in the dollar, and this has also caused great harm to these famous bondholders, both in sales and profits.
But as you can see in the chart, which represents the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies, the famous Tx, you see? which is reaching a ceiling, therefore the question we have to ask ourselves is, well, have we seen the worst of the surge? Can we consider that the Fans have already bottomed out?
Of course, if we conclude that the Fans have bottomed out, we should conclude that the P500 still has more upside to go. Okay, let's look at the charts. First of all, I'd like you to look at the Alphabet trade, as you can see there on the chart. You see that it has fallen and recovered the support that was broken at 95.6.
Indeed, it was a false breakout to the downside at a time when the masses, everyone, are bearish on the Fans. Then this gives the impression that there will be a significant rebound. Let's go to Microsoft. If you look, you'll see that Microsoft has reached the 219 zone and bounced back. It hasn't made new lows and it seems like it wants to head towards the 250 zone.
Now let's go to Amazon, as you can see on the chart. Well, Amazon has also now headed towards the 10.5 zone and hasn't gone any further. Let's... Meta in Metala has fallen significantly, as you can see, it has fallen sharply, breaking through the support level in the 123 zone. There we can consider that there may have been a selling frenzy.
Indeed. Therefore, looking at these very bearish charts, we see that something doesn't add up. First, remember that there is a deep bearish sentiment towards these stocks, and a bearish sentiment in what period? In the seasonal period? Speechless. Don't you realize that it may be forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern?
Do you see that despite the bad data from last week, the right shoulder has not fallen below the left shoulder? Therefore, we are going to consider, as we will mention, that it is more likely that the stocks will experience a rebound and that, therefore, the S&P 500 will at least head towards the 4,000 zone and very likely the 4,150 zone.
I'll leave you to think about it. This is the key and what will drive the S&P 500 upwards, from our point of view. Goodbye, see you later. Have a good day
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