저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 8만 달러 아래로 밀렸고, 7만 5천 달러가 깨지면 하락이 길어질 수 있다는 경고가 나오지만 단정은 아니다. 가격 흐름: 10월 26일 비트코인이 8만 달러 아래로 잠깐 내려갔다가 다시 8만 달러 위로 회복했다. 8만 달러는 심리적 지지선으로 여겨진다. 하락 원인: 미국 현물 비트코인 ETF에서 자금이 빠졌다. 목요일 약 6.356억 달러 유출, 지난 금요일 약 1.379억 달러 유출로 이틀간 약 7.735억 달러가 빠졌다. 다만 월~수요일에는 약 10.7억 달러가 유입되었고, 주간 순유입은 약 3.012억 달러로 남아 모멘텀이 꺾였을 뿐 자금이 완전히 이탈한 것은 아니라고 설명한다. 피터 쉬프 발언: 8만 달러 이탈을 놀랍지 않게 보며, 다음 주요 레벨은 7만 5천 달러. 이 선이 무너지면 투자자에게 매우 길고 고통스러운 주말이 될 수 있다고 경고했다. 쉬프는 오랜 비트코인 비판자다. ETF 구조적 리스크: 비트코인은 24시간 거래되지만 현물 ETF는 장중에만 거래된다. 주말 가격 급락 시 ETF 투자자는 즉시 매도하지 못하고 월요일까지 기다려야 하므로 패닉 매도 압력이 월요일에 커질 수 있다. 블룸버그 인텔리전스 마이크 맥걸론 발언: '연준과 싸우지 마라(Don't fight the Fed)'를 강조했다. 비트코인, 금, 구리 같은 고베타 자산은 연준 정책에 민감하다고 봤다. IBIT의 변동성은 TLT의 약 3배로 제시되었고, IBIT 대 TLT 비율이 2024년 말부터 꺾이는 것으로 보인다고 상대강도 약화를 경고했다. 동시에 미 국채 롱포지션과 비트코인 숏포지션의 청산이 큰 반전의 발판이 될 수 있다고도 말했다. 심리 지표: 공포·탐욕 지수는 10월 26일 50(중립)으로, 전날 54에서 낮아졌다. 극단적 공포는 아니지만 확신은 약해졌고, 일부 지표는 공포 구간을 가리킨다. 주요 가격 레벨: 상단은 8만 달러 회복 유지, 이후 8만 2천 달러. 하단은 7만 8천 달러, 그다음 7만 5천 달러. 해당 분석가는 8만 2천 달러 돌파 전까지 단기 전망이 안정되지 않는다고 봤다. 리스크와 결론: 8만 달러 재탈환 또는 7만 5천 달러 테스트, 두 시나리오가 모두 가능하다. 쉬프와 맥걸론 모두 과거 약세 입장이었으므로 발언을 절대적 예측으로 볼 수 없다. 비트코인은 하루 3~5% 변동도 흔하므로 리스크 관리가 필요하며, 투자 전 금융 전문가 조언을 권한다.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000, and the biggest debate in the market is whether the next level is $5,000, or whether this correction is just a temporary dip. Peter Shift has even warned that if $75,000 is broken, it could be a very long weekend for Bitcoin investors . Now don't take this very long weekend as good news.
The weekend is going on in somewhat negative terms here, and along with that comes a message from Bloomberg's Mike Magallone, who clearly said, "Don't fight the Fed." So what do these two statements mean? Why has Bitcoin fallen so much ? What specific problem do ETF investors have with this ? And what levels should be monitored going forward?
We'll cover all of this in this video today. So please watch the video with us till the end. First of all let's talk about the price. On October 26th, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $80 and reached around $926. It later recovered above $80,000. But this level has now become a very important level for the market.
Let me tell you how. Look, $80,000 isn't just a round number. This is a psychological level because investors are looking at this as a big [musical] support. Now, if an asset falls below such a level, many traders start cutting their positions. This further increases the selling of music. Now the biggest question is where did this decline come from?
The biggest reason for this was the withdrawal of money from the American Spot Bitcoin ETF. About 635.6 million were withdrawn from the N ETF on Thursday, according to data from Farside Investors. And after that, if we talk about last week Friday, then 137.9 million i.e. about 773.5 million i.e. about 77 crores went out in just two trading sessions.
This figure is also important. Why? Because spot Bitcoin ETS are funds that allow ordinary investors, wealth managers and institutions to gain exposure to Bitcoin without opening an account on a crypto exchange. Now when money comes out of these funds, the fund managers may have to sell Bitcoin . This increases the selling pressure in the market.
But keep one more thing in mind, the entire week was not negative. Last week from Monday to Wednesday, approximately $1.07 billion came into NETs. Then on Thursday, after Friday's selling, the net inflow for the entire week is left at about 301.2 million. That means the money did not run away completely but the momentum definitely reversed here.
Now let's come to Peter Sheff's warning. Chef has long been one of Bitcoin's biggest critics. He said that Bitcoin falling below $80,000 does not surprise him and the next big level could be $75,000. Now he also says that if $75,000 does n't hold, it could be a very long weekend for Bitcoin investors .
This simply means that the price decline will be long and extremely painful for investors. But there is a special point after the shift for ETF investors. See, Bitcoin is traded 24 hours a day, seven days a week. But American spot Bitcoin ETFs are listed on the stock market . Therefore they are traded only during market hours.
If Bitcoin falls on Saturday or Sunday, ETF investors cannot immediately sell their ETF shares. You have to carry it forward to Monday. He has to wait until Monday to sell it off . And that's why weekend price drops can be more risky for ETF investors . They are unable to exit immediately in panic and when the market opens on Monday of the next week, the selling pressure increases even more.
Now let's move on to another name who has made a huge statement. My name is Mike McLoone. Don't fight the fate, says Mike, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. This is the biggest lesson of this quarter. According to him, high beta assets like Bitcoin, gold and copper are very sensitive to Fed policy .
If we understand it in simple language then Fed means the central bank of America. When the Fed raises interest rates or reduces liquidity, reducing the flow of cash, risky assets are pressured. Now Bitcoin is also often traded as a risky asset. So when uncertainty increases in global markets , investors first withdraw money from risky assets.
Now Magallon has provided another data point. According to him, the volatility of iShares Bitcoin Trust i.e. IBIT is almost three times that of iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF i.e. TLT. What this means is that price movements in Bitcoin ETFs can be much faster and more risky. He also said that the Ibit to TLT ratio is seen rolling over from its base by the end of 2024 .
Simply put, the relative strength of Bitcoin ETFs is weakening and this could be a warning signal. But McLoone isn't just talking about crashes. He is also saying that leveraged long positions in US Treasury bonds and the recent flush of short positions in Bitcoin could form the foundation for a potential move of a lifetime.
This means that so much positioning has taken place in the market that now a big reversal can also happen. This doesn't mean that the price will definitely go up. But this means that when a large number of traders in the market place bets in the same direction, a reversal can lead to a large movement.
Now let's talk a little about sentiments . The CryptoFear & Greed Index settled at 50 on October 26, which is in the neutral zone. A day earlier it was at 54. At 54, that means there is no extreme panic in the market yet. But confidence is also not as strong as before. Some Bitcoin specific trackers also showed the fear zone.
This simply means that panic is increasing among retail investors. Now, when fairness increases, short- term volatility also increases. This means that there will be a lot of fluctuations in the short term. The most important question that is facing us right now is what will happen next? The first level is $80,000 Bitcoin will have to stay above it.
Only then will there be talk of short term recovery. The second level is $82,000. Bitcoin needs to move above 80 and then $82,000 to stabilize the short-term outlook, according to the analyst. The first level to reverse on the downside is $78,000 and the next biggest level is $75,000 as highlighted by Peter Schiff.
If $75,000 is broken, market sentiment could turn quite negative. But also remember that both Schiff and Magallon have been bearish on Bitcoin in the past. Schiff has long criticized Bitcoin, and Magallon has previously talked about a severe bear market for Bitcoin . Therefore, it would not be right to consider his statement as an absolute prediction.
But understand the risk scenario . There are both possibilities in the market. Either Bitcoin will recover by reclaiming $80,000 or it will test $75,000 as ETF outflows and micro pressure increase. The biggest lesson for ordinary investors is that Bitcoin prices are n't driven solely by supply and demand.
In that, EDF flows, fate policy, global risk appetite, leverage and market sentiments all together are becoming factors in at this time and are becoming very important factors. So if you invest in Bitcoin or crypto, don't just look at price charts , look at ETF flows and micro data. And most importantly, create positions according to your risk capacity.
Because in this market, daily movements of 3 to 5% can be a normal thing. It will not be shocking news if there is a movement of 3 to 5%. So before investing, definitely take the advice of a financial advisor.
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