저자: PeterLynch-채널진행자추정 · 외국인
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결론: 피터 린치는 주가가 역사적 고점일 때 과열의 위험을 경고하면서도, 시장 방향은 예측 불가능하므로 장기적으로 좋은 기업 몇 개를 골라 보유하라고 조언한다. [시장 밸류에이션 - PER] 린치는 1928년 이후 S&P500의 PER이 대체로 10~20 범위에서 움직였다고 설명한다. 인터뷰 당시 PER이 20을 넘어섰으며, 영상 제작자 기준 현재 PER은 약 35로 1929년 대공황 직전 수준보다 높다고 언급한다. 린치는 주가가 지나치게 빠르게 오르면 미래 실적을 과도하게 선반영하게 되어 문제가 된다고 본다. 일본이 주가 5000→40000 과열 후 장기 불황을 겪은 사례를 든다. 인플레이션이 낮을 때는 PER이 20 부근까지 정당화될 수 있다고 덧붙인다. [종목 선택 방법] 린치는 전문가처럼 체계적으로 리서치해야 하며, 자신이 잘 아는 산업이나 기업(이른바 '엣지')에 투자하라고 조언한다. 예로 타코벨, 치폴레 등 외식업체, 시스코 등을 들며 자신이 일상에서 목격한 성장 기업을 우선하라고 한다. 재무 지표로는 현금 보유액과 부채를 확인하라고 강조한다. 파산 직전 저가주보다 현금이 충분한 기업을 고르라는 의견이다. 대부분의 투자자는 4~5개 기업에 집중하고 소수의 좋은 주식만 있으면 충분하다고 말하며, 개별주 투자가 어렵다면 뮤추얼펀드를 병행하라고 권한다. [하락장 대응] 주가 하락 시 기업의 펀더멘털이 훼손되지 않았다면 기회로 볼 수 있다고 한다. 리스크-리워드 비율(상승 여력 대비 하락 위험)을 따져 판단하라고 말한다. 주가와 기업 가치는 별개이며, 주가는 과대평가와 과소평가를 오간다는 입장이다. [단기 매매와 시장 전망] 린치는 다음 1000포인트 방향은 동전 던지기와 같아 예측이 무의미하다고 말한다. 다만 10~20년 후 기업 이익은 더 커질 것이며, 새로운 기업의 등장이 경제를 성장시킨다고 낙관한다. 경기침체는 주기적으로 오지만 시기는 예측할 수 없다고 본다. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 방향 예측은 하지 않음. 장기적으로 기업 이익과 미국 경제에 낙관적. 과열 PER에 대해서는 경계.
다듬은 글
hey guys welcome back peter lynch was one of the legendary investors of the 20th century he is well known for being able to get a 29 average annual return as a hotshot fund manager at fidelity if you would have invested in peter lynch's fund your money would have grown over 28 times he outperformed over 99 of all the other fund managers out there so clearly an excellent person to learn from so in this video we're going to be breaking down a very valuable interview he gave when at the time the stock market was setting all-time highs very similar to today in fact check out this chart so this is a long term chart of the s p 500 and it goes all the way back to 1928 and you can see here it goes through second world war and then we have this big run-up to the dot-com crash we have the next run-up to the 2008 financial crisis and then look at what has happened in the last 10 years we've had this absolutely epic bull market run the biggest one in history and when we talk about stocks being at all-time highs this is where we're at toda don't be shy here is some investing wisdom from legendary investor peter lynch okay hear him talk about stocks being at all-time highs and the problems that can cause he then talks about how to invest in stocks some tips and strategies we'll then take a look at how to handle when a stock declines and this could be a stock that you own or a stock that you have your eye on and then we'll finish with his thoughts on short-term trading and i am very pleased to have him back at this table welcome back hey charlie good to see you they're smart of me smart of me to schedule you on a day like this three months ago i said when you want lynch to come in i said let's get him on tuesday something's going to happen in the market that week and so here we are glad to be here explain to me what's going on well we had a huge run i mean the market was 4 000 just you know two and a half years ago yeah and it ran up to 8 300 in august if you look at japan japan went from 5 000 to 15 000 on their dao it was fairly priced at 15 000 on earnings and everything else then it went to 40 000 and that caused seven years of inflated real estate people overspending and basically they've been a recession for five or six years because their market went up too high i mean the market goes up too high i mean if the market goes too high you're discounting earnings seven eight ten years out because everything is overpriced yeah and that doesn't help anything the market since world war ii has sold between 10 times earnings and 20 times earnings if you look at the dow jones or the s p fund if you add up all the companies and take the earnings you say there's a relationship and it follows mcdonald's earnings have been terrific the last 30 years and the stock's been direct there's a direct relationship so the earnings of the s p 500 have been between this range of 10 and 20.
we were just about to go over the 20 which is the high end of the pe range there wasn't a lot of pe of 20 is too is is it the top of how high it should ever be right it's been over there only a few times ever over 20 and that's when usually inflation's about zero in the early 60s when inflation was about zero we're a little bit over 20.
now we have a very low inflation rate so if you usually have subtracted inflation from 20 you've had the p of the market that's been a pretty good ratio when inflation was 12 percent you remember in the early 80s with eight or nine p in the market i never thought i'd ever wish for the market to not go up dramatically but let's just let's argue the market went to 16 000 tomorrow yeah basically there's earnings behind companies so the earnings he was referring to were actually p e ratios p being the stock price and e being earnings or company profits and he mentioned historically they typically fall in the range between 10 and 20.
so this is a long term chart of p e ratios and it goes back all the way to 1880 and what peter lynch was saying is that it fluctuates between this 10 and 20 range and what he was saying is that historically it's gone from this 10 to 20 range making the average being about 17 and at the time of that interview it had broken past 20.
however for everyone watching today this is where we're at today 35 and as you can see this is now higher than the 1929 great recession but it's not as high as the dot-com crisis just yet and he said it's actually a bad thing if stock prices go up too fast too quickly he said when this happened to japan this led to inflated real estate prices and also a recession that lasted years sound familiar okay next up he gives some advice for investing in stocks and how to do it properly let's take a look but you have to look at 20 to find one it's just you know go to the mall and find the stock i mean you have to say my god this sounds like it's good then you have to do some steps you have to do an organized method people are careful when they buy a toaster careful they're careful they do they do some research but they don't do it with stock they call it the broker they see somebody at lunch and they said man i got this hot stock and you run right out and you spend five thousand dollars small investors yeah well even more they put an option in international data which they don't even own international you have to have download edge let's say the cement industry goes from crummy to semi-crummy to fairly good the stocks are going north you're going to make money that's the industry you know when if you know the publishing industry you're you some people have you have an edge you work i mean when if you last 30 years you worked in the restaurant years you would have seen taco bell you would have seen some barrels you would have seen pizza hut you've seen chili's you've seen these companies doing very well you should have bought those instead of trying to buy biotechnology stuff you know nothing about i mean i know nothing about local area networking a lot of people are buying this cisco they're buying the equipment saying we're going to root together all these peripherals and put together the servers but but that's not a bad buy because they own a huge percentage of their market you know what that was they're saying only a few people had them i said my god if it works for us other people try it then colleges will try it high schools will try it they'll go overseas they knew they were early in the ball game and they should have been buying that company instead of out buying something they don't know anything about some oil drilling company i mean people have this tendency to always buy something they don't all you need charlie all you need is a few good stocks this is your song this has been your song for a long time but only by what you know but people wake up in the morning and say this 5 000 companies out there which one should i buy the average person ought to be able to follow four or five companies there would be a lecture on them they understand the companies so you can say this company i want to look at i want to see what are the cash looks like and if you don't understand what cash is if you understand what debt is i always said let's say you're looking at companies that are doing poorly that they're not doing very well why don't you buy the one that has 300 million dollars in cash instead of the one that's almost bankrupt i mean a lot of companies are selling two or three dollars a share they might be losing 10 million no brainer in it but people don't do it well they don't do it because they don't know how to do the research you can look up the balance you say listen they get three million dollars in cash they're losing 10 million a quarter they'll be okay this other company's got no no cash 700 million dollars in debt they're about to blow taxes but you're telling every small investor in america anyway they ought to invest in a mutual fund aren't you i'm telling you you could do both you ought to you could be invested mutual funds and occasionally you should be able to find a stock that's going to make a difference in your life if it's an industry you know something about industry or local company if they're not ready to do it properly they shouldn't do it and it used to be used to be able to retire and you get half of your last year's salary you'd have a pension you could rely on that now you have to do it for yourself some people are presented there but they're let go or their early retirement they're giving 500 000 and they say this is it this is your retirement lady you're going to take care of it now such a great bit of advice he said you have to look at 20 to maybe find one and then it's all about having an organized method of research i think one of the problems that many people fall into today is that they buy stocks like they're at a supermarket so nowadays we have these nice fancy apps and it's like yeah i'll have one of those i'll have one of those give me some of this you got that one no need need got got need but the problem being is that we don't actually know anything about the companies we're actually buying he then mentioned about finding your edge so think about the specific industry that you work in right now are there any innovations or any companies coming through that most people don't know about yet this might be something that you can capitalize on and then one of the most important quotes in this whole piece which you might have missed because it was very quick which was this all you need are a few good stocks a decade and warren buffett actually says the same thing all you need are a few good companies but then you should know the key fundamentals on those companies things like do they have a strong cash position how much debt do they have can you see a clear competitive advantage and he also mentioned about investing in mutual funds as well as a couple of good stocks okay so next up what happens when a stock drops now this could be some stocks that you own or it could be some stocks that you have your eye on here's what he said tell me what took place overnight between yesterday at the close of market and today at the beginning what were the guys that you used to work with saying to each other at fidelity and what were the people you know saying for example ibm made a decision to buy back their stock right and that presented some kind of push on the market and their stock went up six points well one thing you're trying to do is all these public companies out there here's the company i really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well the competitors are doing poorly i think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60 and all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find companies you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do you not not just like the one from overpriced to fairly priced something was fairly placed at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know a five for four sale you know if you had been managing the magellan fund this morning you would have been buying like crazy i would have been researching like crazy i've been saying which companies are the same story is there anything really happen this is a non-event for them they're still doing well even if we have a recession there's nothing to do with them and that's the kind of kinds i'm trying to buy but let's say if a company just think of this as being you say to yourself i think this company's going to earn something in the future if it's already discounting that if it's selling at a huge multiple you say it's already it has to work and then it's only going to stay even so you have to say yourself if i'm right how much am i going to make if i'm wrong how much i'm going to lose that's the risk reward ratio in stock shop we talk about if i'm right i hope i'm going to double trip my money if i'm wrong may i lose 30 40 that's a favorable ratio you say if i'm right the stock's not gonna go up it's already discounting terrific things if discounting terrific things are already in the stock i don't know now the key message for me is actually that the company and the company's stock price are actually two different things a company stock price could be falling even though the company is actually doing quite well conversely a company's stock price could be soaring even though the company is actually struggling so stock prices are constantly fluctuating to overvalued to undervalued to overvalued and by knowing the key fundamentals of the company you will know whether it's actually good value for money and worth buying make sense okay next up peter lynch's thoughts on short-term trading let's take a look so what you're saying to people today about the future of the market over the near term is what what's your feeling we can take could take a coin out and flip it i have no idea what the next thousand points gonna do the next six thousand points can be up the next fourteen thousand points will be up the next twenty thousand points will be up but you don't know where the next thousand is gonna be down could be up nobody does and it's futile to try and guess it corporate profits will be a lot higher 10 years from now it'll be a lot higher 20 years from now that's what you could rely on microsoft didn't exist 20 years ago staples didn't exist 20 years federal express didn't exist 20 years ago new companies will come along that's what's going to make it says 20 years ago that's what makes amgen has two one billion dollar drugs they didn't exist 20 years ago new companies have come along that's what makes this country work you got to keep your eyes open all right so you're optimistic about the future of the american economy earnings potential for most well-run companies will do all right but people have to understand we've had nine recessions since world war ii we'll have other recessions but we're not in one now but we may have one in the future and don't get worried it will have one sometime it'll happen and no one will tell you when it's going to happen it's what won't the fundamentals tell you no you'll find out after the fact you'll all of a sudden you'll notice orders slowing prices get more competitive than earnings it down i mean usually you find that affect no one declares everybody's saying we're going to have recession for five years it just hasn't happened it's great to see you i hope you'll come back any time peter excellent thank you thank you so peter lynch has no idea where the next 1000 points is going to be it could be up it could be down we may as well flip a coin but the next 10 000 points or 20 000 points are likely going to be up company profits 10 years from now will likely be doing better and that is what we need to rely on and again this is actually very similar to what warren buffett says as well the key message being you only ever need a few good stocks okay so there you are guys that was some investing wisdom from one of the legendary investors peter lynch and i then be sure to drop a like it only takes two seconds and it really
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