Bitcoin About To Breakout! 😳 says Cathie Wood

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비트코인이 3만 달러 아래에서 약세지만, 캐시 우드는 강세 돌파를 예상하며 장기 강세장(secular bull)을 주장한다. 미국 신용등급이 Fitch에 의해 AAA에서 AA+로 하향된 것은 재정 지출 통제 실패를 보여주는 경고 신호로 평가된다. 해결책은 긴축보다 기술 혁신을 통한 고성장으로 부채 부담을 줄이는 것이며, 재무장관 옐런은 이 하향을 부당하다고 반박했다. 결국 장기적으로 통화 확대(돈 찍기) 재개가 불가피하다는 견해가 나온다. 금리 인상의 경기 효과는 밀턴 프리드먼 이론처럼 6~18개월의 시차를 두고 나타나며, 현재 약 18개월 시점에 도달해 경기 둔화 가능성이 제기된다. 기업 마진 압박으로 고용 조정이 나타날 수 있고, 연착륙(골디락스) 기대와 달리 자산 가격 하락이 시작됐을 수 있다는 우려가 있다. 비트코인은 블랙록 현물 ETF 신청 이후 3만 달러를 넘었다가 조정 중이며, 고점과 저점이 계속 높아지는 구조라 장기 상승 추세로 해석된다. 변동성은 2020년 이후 최저 수준으로 줄었고, 온체인 지표는 상방 돌파 쪽에 무게를 둔다. 다음 저항은 약 3만 5천 달러로 제시된다. 다만 과거 패턴상 8~9월은 조정 기간이었기에 캐시 우드의 전망이 추세를 거스를지는 불확실하다는 결론이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. with Bitcoin seeing weakness over the past week failing to hold on to the thirty thousand dollar level all eyes are wondering what happens next now as we've covered in my latest videos the crypto Market does see a pullback August and September of the pre-halving years however Kathy Wood must be looking at different data as she believes Bitcoin is about to break out and so in this video we're going to cover the three biggest takeaways from her latest monthly market update including with the US getting a downgrade from Fitch just how big a deal is this a major Milestone or just a meh then according to Milton Friedman a Nobel prize-winning Economist there is a certain time frame you have to wait for the effects of major interest rate increases we'll cover what this is and where we're at right now and then we'll finish up with her latest thoughts on bitcoin why she believes we are in a secular bull market and why we're about to see another major breakout okay so first up last week was a bit of a historic week as the credit rating agency Fitch downgraded the US going from a triple A to a double A Plus however just how important is this Fitch downgraded uh government debt this week and uh some some economists are treating that with with alarm and others uh others including strategists are treating it with a yawn and uh the truth is probably somewhere in between as is usually the case it really is a sign that our spending the government spending um in the last five six years has just been out of control and my reaction to it is you know hopefully this is a warning to the legislature and politicians generally that uh you know the the spigot is going to have to stop uh but I do think uh Fitch is warning us that we're going to have to deal with this issue in one way or another um our point of view would be uh enact policies that encourage very rapid growth because we're on the threshold of some technologies as you know we talk about them all the time uh really turbo charging growth and uh the the best way to get out of a debt problem is to grow out of it um and so interestingly treasury secretary Janet Yellen commented on the recent downgrade calling it completely unwarranted however I'll let you decide let's now take a quick look at the interest payments the US now has to pay on its debts and you decide whether there's something quite dramatic going on right now thank you and this is why it's only a matter of time until the money printer gets turned back on because as you can see U.S debt is now completely out of control and the only way that you can deal with this is if you can create new money okay next up now the rapid increase in interest rates hasn't really done the damage that many people were predicting the stock market was recently close to New highs Bitcoin this year has doubled so what is going on the other thing that I think more and more people are are discussing is what Milton uh Friedman taught everyone uh and that that is that monetary policy impacts the economy over and and these are variable time periods I think at times you use six months to 18 months well right now we're at about that 18-month period And so we're hearing talks of the Goldilocks economy Goldilocks economy meaning uh soft Landing in response to uh money uh monetary policy and inflation coming down to that two percent area and then we're on our merry way um but if uh money uh and monetary policy money interest rates uh do impact the economy over an 18-month period uh well here we are this if this is the start what could that mean and I do think that companies now grappling with margin pressure are going to start making tough decisions about employment especially if the grips of monetary policy get stronger as real interest rates go up and so the main point being made is that major changes to monetary policy don't happen straight away there is a time lag and it can be up to 18 months which basically means that the big impacts of these massive rate hikes will be hitting any time now and over the next six months in fact has the big rollover in asset prices already started last week okay and to finish up with some good news even if the greater economy begins to roll over according to Kathy Wood Bitcoin is still setting up its next major move check it out uh and then finally uh Bitcoin uh new asset class uh after the excitement about blackrock's ETF filing for Bitcoin uh in June which rocketed Bitcoin Beyond uh 30 000.

02. uh it has uh come down a bit it's been moving such that we have higher highs and higher lows uh with each cycle it's very volatile of course as we all know uh but higher highs and and higher lows means we're in a secular uh bull market and even more notable is the volatility has come down dramatically in fact we haven't seen this low of volatility since 2020 right before it embarked upon a major move now sometimes volatility means uh that it's going to break down so when there's very low volatility you look for signs of is this going to break out or is it going to break down given our on-chain Analytics um the we're we're on the bullish side and we just put out uh the Bitcoin monthly uh this week uh so the internals of the market uh the on-chain analytics are are telling us uh that we're probably if there's going to be a break either way it will be a breakout to the upside and and so as mentioned Kathy Wood believes we are in a secular Bull and the basic idea behind that this is bitcoin's charts and this was the lows that were put in November until about January and what she's pointing out is that we are in an uptrend and so we're making new highs and then higher lows higher highs and then higher lows higher highs and so far higher lows so as long as we stay above this level then this is an uptrend and secular all and she says the pattern just keeps repeating you can see lots of sideways consolidation into a huge breakout then it was breaking beginning to break down before the next big breakout same pattern as you can see it was beginning to break back down before the next leg up and same thing again and this is why she believes the next up leg is coming and as we can see there isn't really any more major resistance until about 35 000 so this could be the next big up leg so it'll be very interesting to see if Kathy Woods thesis plays out so there you are guys hope you enjoyed now the next two months are certainly going to be very interesting as historically they have been correction months however will Kathy Woods thesis Buck the trend let me know you your thoughts and comments below but just remember we are trying out the new super thanks commenting system so to get your question or comment read and replied to or if you have a request or just want to say thanks then use super thanks below and for now just to say if you did enjoy anything in the video then drop a like and a big thank you to everyone who does and I'll see you in the next video bye for now