저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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워런 버핏 인터뷰를 재구성한 영상이다. 결론: 시장 타이밍보다 10~20년 장기 기업 보유가 핵심이며, 단기 뉴스로 투자 결정을 하지 말라는 메시지다. 주식 vs 시장 타이밍: 버핏은 하락을 기다리는 것이 의미 없다고 본다. 시장 방향을 맞히려 하지 말고, 기업의 장기 수익 창출력을 보고 적정 가격에 사라는 입장이다. 신문 헤드라인이나 일별 등락으로 판단하지 말라고 강조했다. 채권: 버핏은 채권보다 주식을 선호한다. 2% 수익률 채권은 약 50배 수익률 수준이라 30년 채권은 매력이 떨어진다고 평가했다. 배당보다 유보이익으로 성장하는 것이 부의 원천이라는 관점이다. 비트코인·암호화폐: 버핏은 보유하지 않으며 앞으로도 보유하지 않겠다고 밝혔다. 생산적 현금흐름이 없는 자산이라는 점을 문제로 보며, 불법 자금 이동 수단으로 쓰인다는 취지로 비판했다. 금에 대한 시각과도 유사하다고 설명했다. 버크셔 vs S&P500: 최근 1·3·5·10년 기간 버크셔가 S&P500에 뒤처졌다. 버핏은 규모가 커진 영향을 인정하면서도 GAAP 이익은 세계 최고 수준이라고 강조했다. 향후 10년 상위권 성과는 기대하지 않으며, S&P500 인덱스가 더 나을 수 있다고 인정했다. 출연자 전망: 버핏 본인은 향후 S&P500 대비 소폭 우위 가능성을 언급했으나, 상위 성과는 장담하지 않았다. 하락장에서는 상대적 방어력이 있을 것이라는 취지다. 리스크·조건: 장기 보유 전제이며 단기 매매 판단에는 부적합하다. 시장 예측 능력에 대한 회의적 입장이 전반에 깔려 있다.
다듬은 글
with the stock market continuing to set all-time highs and with many experts calling for a big crash it can be hard to know what we should be doing as investors this is the buffet indicator made famous by warren buffett and it measures the value of the stock market divided by gdp this was the reading just before the dot-com boom and crash but this is where we're at today and it's measuring an all-time high so should we be buying stocks at all-time highs should we be buying bonds instead for protection or maybe we should be looking at other asset classes like cryptocurrency or bitcoin well the good news is that we can get all these questions answered by a true investing legend warren buffett is arguably the world's greatest investor with a net worth of around 85 billion dollars he clearly knows a thing or two about investing in this video i'm going to be breaking down one of his more recent interviews to get the answer to these questions as always if you do find anything useful in these videos then drop a like that would be much appreciated okay sit back and relax guys as we get some excellent investing wisdom from the oracle of omaha himself warren buffett so here is what we've got coming up and we're going to break this interview into four parts first we'll find out should we be buying stocks right now or should we wait for a correction or market drop we'll then ask warren buffett about bonds are bonds a good investment we'll then ask him about crypto and bitcoin is he a fan and we'll finish with the performance against the s p 500 asking the question why isn't warren buffett now able to beat the s p 500 first day i bought stocks was march 12 1941 40 40 42 and the stocks were down about 2 that day as it turned out unfortunately i bought in the morning so when i came home in the evening and my dad told me the execution price it was down two percent but uh uh if you're buying a business uh and and that's what stocks are businesses in fact people will be better off if they say i bought a business today not a stock today because that gives you a different perspective on it then presumably and then buy a farm if you buy apartment house if you buy a business you're going to own it for 10 or 20 or 30 years and the real question is has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for for american businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours and we're gonna you'll notice many of the businesses we own partially owned american express we've owned it for 20 years coca-cola we've owned it for 40 years those are businesses and uh you know buy or sell your business based on on on today's headlines and if it gives you a chance to buy something that you like and you can buy it even cheaper then it's your good luck basically you you don't i don't think anybody knows what the market is going to do i think you do know whether you're making an intelligent purchase at a given price everybody when they buy a stock if you're going to buy say general motors that has a billion 400 million shares out you should be able to take a yellow pad like you have there and on one page say let's say it's selling for 30 it isn't selling that low but that'd be 42 billion you should say i am buying the general motors company for 42 billion dollars because and you should get it on a piece of paper and then if you want to have a shepherd piece of paper since i think i know what the stock market's going to do so i know whether it'll be higher or lower anyway but you don't forget about the market if you can pretty good market you don't need to read balance sheets you don't need only you don't need to read anything you certainly can't predict the market by reading the daily newspaper that is for sure and you really can't you certainly can't predict the market by listening to me but you're buying businesses and uh people because they can make decisions every second in stocks whereas they can't with farms they think an investment in stocks is different than an investment in a business or an investment in a farm or investment in an apartment house but it isn't if if you get your money's worth in terms of future earning power over the next 10 or 20 or 30 years you're gonna have made a good investment and you can't pick them from day to day if you can do that you can well i haven't met anybody yet that knows how to do it so trying to wait for a drop or a big correction he says he hasn't met anybody who is able to do it he said to not think about buying stocks but think about buying businesses as you never know what's gonna happen one month six months one year from now but with a 10-year plus horizon then you'll probably be doing very well and above all else don't make investing decisions on today's news headlines so basically think long term and you should be fine so now we move on to bonds we're told from reputable sources that as we get older we should be buying bonds also we're told in a bad economy that bonds are a great way to diversify and help with the volatility so does warren buffett like bonds let's find out agronomy smith set out to write a book on bonds versus stocks and he said if he went in with the idea that bonds would be a better investment in times of deflation and stocks would be a better uh investment in times of inflation and the first line of his book was to say that he'd been wrong but he had enough sense to look at his evidence and i think darwin said if you found evidence that was contrary to what you already believed write it down in 30 minutes or your bla your mind will just block it out i mean people have a great resistance to new evidence and he said if a stock yields four percent the bond yields four percent which was what he was talking about then the stock was going to outperform the bonds because there were retained earnings that were building beyond that yield and that's that has been true for a long long time but nobody paid any attention to it we don't get rich on our dividends that we receive all the way happy to receive them we get rich on on the fact that the retained earnings are used to build new earning power repurchase shares which increases your ownership in the company and and uh uh and and berkshire has retained earnings ever since we started that's the only reason berkshire's worth a lot more as we retain earnings a stock can be a good buy or a bad buy a bond can be a good buy or bad buy it depends on price if you look at the present situation we've talked about this before that you get more for your money in stocks than bonds that doesn't have to be the case i mean uh but it's usually been the case in america very usually been the case and and if you buy a 30-year bond today with yield 2 you're paying 50 times earnings for an investment where the earnings can't go up for 30 years now if somebody said i want to sell you a stock that's at 50 times earnings and the earnings can't go up for 30 years you say that doesn't sound very good stocks are way better than 30-year bonds i mean that's clear and and that's one of the alternatives people have people really have three basic alternatives short-term cash which is an option of doing something later on long-term bonds are long-term stocks and stocks are cheaper than bonds so very interesting it looks like warren buffett is not a fan of bonds he said that we don't get rich from the dividends which is what some businesses and things like bonds pay out we get rich from the retained earnings retained earnings is basically all the money that's left over when everything's been paid out and all the dividends et cetera it's the money that's used to reinvest and grow the business and this is something that bonds can't do he mentioned that with bond yields at two percent that is 50 times earnings and this basically means it would take you 50 years to get your money back so if someone came to you with a stock and said it's at 50 times earnings and you're not able to grow it then he said that's actually not a good thing which now moves us on nicely to cryptocurrency and bitcoin it's the new kid on the block it's been growing at an exponential rate so is warren buffett a fan of crypto and bitcoin let's see you don't own bitcoin no i do not own one i don't own any cryptocurrency i never will and uh you know in the end i may start a war in currency you know maybe i can create one and i'll say there's only going to be 21 million of them and you can have a little ledger sheet from me and everything that says you have it and and you can have it after i die and but you can't do anything with it except sell it to somebody else and the interesting thing of course is that bitcoin's been out there a long time and people talked about how it would be used in in various kinds of exchange but none of our companies are doing business in in bitcoin or anything yeah bitcoin has been used i think to move around a fair amount of money illegally so the the the maybe in countries where yeah yeah so the the the logical move from the introduction of bitcoin is to go short suitcases because the money that was taken in two cases from one country to another suitcases will probably fall off in demand i mean so you can look at that as the economic contribution of of bitcoin to the society is a so i think it's fair to say that mr buffett is not a fan of bitcoin quite amusingly he recommends going short on suitcases as these businesses are going to be dropping with this new way to send illegal money for me this is actually very similar to the reasons why he doesn't like gold he believes that if it's just something that you hold and it doesn't pay a yield and all you're doing is waiting for it to appreciate then he's not a fan very similar to gold i think it's fair to say that warren buffett is a stock market guy okay and finally warren buffett is very well known for being able to get a 20 return per year and this is double the historic average of the s p 500 however what some of you might not realize is that recently in fact over a one-year three-year five-year and now 10-year period warren buffett is no longer able to beat the s p 500.
he was confronted with this fact and this is what he had to say a berkshire has now underperformed the s p 500 on one year three year five year and ten year marks is that because it's too big and will it ever be able to outperform well certainly being too big is part of it uh and uh but i would say this uh during that same time i mean last year we achieved now i don't like it gap earnings very well but we achieved the highest gap earnings of any company in the world has ever achieved that's investor owned and we have the highest net worth of any company in the world investor owned any company in the world so it i would say related to safety of principle over time uh i feel good about it and i feel good about the fact that 99 of my money's in it and that it will be the source of all the philanthropic contributions that are made for fifteen or thousand years after i die so but i don't think i do not think it will be in the top ten percent of stocks performing over the next 10 years i don't think it will be in the top 15 percent of stocks performing in the next 10 or 15 years i also don't think it'll be the bottom 10 or 20 percent or 30 so but our ability to have a huge edge over the market generally with a 550 billion dollar market value it's just it'll be minor but it'll be done in a very very safe manner is an investment in the s p 500 a better investment it could be it could be uh uh you know on balance i think we'll do a little better but it'll be it'll be minor depends on the kind of market we're we're in a down market we're going to beat it i mean it's that simple uh and sometimes we will be the last 10 years we haven't been uh but uh over 55 years it's worked and and it will continue working but it it will not work at all like it did when we were working with a hundred million dollars or a billion dollars there's no question about that but we've got good businesses and we're we won't be in the bottom quartile i promise you that so yes it's official warren buffett is no longer able to beat the s p 500 index fund in his defense he said he was very pleased with the company's gap earnings gaap means generally accepted accounting principles he said berkshire hathaway has the best gap earnings in the world and this is for an investor-owned company and interestingly he did say that an s p 500 index fund may be a better investment than berkshire hathaway moving forward so there you are guys that was warren buffett's thoughts on what we should be doing right now and trying to time the market whether we should be buying bonds instead for protection his thoughts on crypto and bitcoin and now underperforming the s p 500 so i hope this helps with your investing for this year in fact much appreciated as every like does help
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