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Hi D you hope you're well many of you been asking me for an update on the Tesla stock situation so that's what I want to do in this video I want to briefly go into the chart of Tesla especially after the recent movement that has occurred on Tesla stock and explain to you what I think is going on here especially from an Elliot wave perspective so we'll dig into the Elli wave model and explain where I think we are in this Eli wave model and also I'll talk to you about where I think Tesla is heading towards in the next several weeks and months all right guys should be quite interesting join me all right guys welcome back now before I begin if you're watching my videos for the first time especially if you're seeing one of my Tesla stock videos for the first time it's possible that you might get the impression that I don't like Tesla stock that maybe you think I'm always bearish on Tesla okay especially if you've been watching my last few videos you probably got the impression that alesio does not like Tesla that is not true at all because if you recall if you remember my videos back from for example when Tesla stock was dropping here do you recall what I was saying about Tesla stock back in January of 2023 other words almost over a year ago when it was dropping heavily in this big decline that occurred in fact here's my YouTube video from the time I pause it here so you can see it this is published back in late December of 2022 or beginning of 2023 and you can see when Tesla stock was dropping here as it was crashing hard into the $100 level I mentioned that very likely Tesla stock was capitulating and I was looking for a bottom in fact here's the title the video you can see is the crash in Tesla stock reaching capitulation and I actually mentioned that video that I thought it was reaching capitulation on a likely bottom just near these levels okay so I was bullish on Tesla stock when everybody else most people actually were bearish on Tesla stock right here but as a matter of fact if I just zoom in here as well you may recall that even afterwards even after that uh when Tesla stock was here as it was dropping in this formation and especially when it was doing this this is back in 2023 over a year ago when it was forming this ABC corrective pattern you may recall I published a video and I said this is likely an ABC pattern I was looking for higher levels and as a matter of fact that is what happened Tesla stock rallied got to some of our targets and at this point I said quite likely we could see a pullback in the price I think that was the summer of 2023 however I did not get everything right because I thought eventually Tesla stock would rally higher and continue the uptrend and that why I published a video sometime last year and I said if Tesla stock was to drop below 200 or 190 then I can no longer be bullish in fact I would have to change my mind and become more bearish because the 200 to 190 level was a key support level that Tesla had to protect for me to maintain a relatively bullish perspective in other words we had to stay above 200 to keep the view that we might be in an uptrend but as a matter of fact you can see that Tesla stock broke below 190 and it broke down below 200 so that is why why I had to change my mind and adopt a more bearish perspective I mentioned this in the video we did with Charlie Burton if you recall so as we anticipated because we broke down below 210 we're looking for lower levels now you could be wondering okay fine but is there any hope for Tesla is there any hope that Tesla stock could potentially go much higher and perhaps take out the highs it made for example the highs it made at the very minimum in 2023 last year or perhaps even higher is there a hope that Tesla stock could go um and take out the highs it made in 20 21 back over here well I'm sorry to say guys that I think that the odds are quite low in fact I don't have good news for you at all in my view what's happening on Tesla stock especially the breakdown below support is increasing the likelihood that we could be seeing much lower levels for one thing guys again let's not beat around the bush let's just State the plain obvious Tesla stock has been a great disappointment this year in 2024 for one thing look at the NASDAQ the NASDAQ and most other technology stocks like Nvidia they've rallied significantly higher uh so you can see this is NASDAQ very beautiful rally since October last year as you can see here and if you look at Nvidia a completely different picture from what you see uh again on on Tesla's stock which has gone nowhere pretty much in the last several months and in fact let's go back to the chart of NASDAQ here's the big problem for Tesla which is that eventually I think it's quite likely that NASDAQ will have a major correction drop and pullback in the next several weeks and months in fact the drop could be pretty severe uh as I'm expecting in most stock markets so this could put downward pressure on Tesla in other words if the NASDAQ drops in a severe correction or indeed any kind of Correction um it could put downward pressure on Tesla stock I don't see how Tesla stock is going to survive a correction in the stock market which I think is coming in the next several weeks and months all right guys so yeah I personally think what's Happening Here on Tesla stock is this let's go on a weekly chart so as you can see here a very strong uptrend from 2010 all the way up to the highs we made in 2021 and I think it's quite likely what's forming here as some kind of a long-term correction and I actually think what's Happening Here what I think happened here on this first big drop here was a likely a-wave down and I think this next bounce was a b-wave bounce and actually mentioned this when when we broke down below 200 and 190 I said this is quite likely a b-wave and I think we're now in a c-wave taking us down eventually to test to retest the lows we made in 2023 in other words I was to write this down I think this was our likely a-wave a wve down from the highs of 2021 to the lows of 2023 or 2022 and then this was our b-wave bounce okay and b-wave bounces as we know are composed of three-wave corrective structures there it is a b c of the b-wave and again we're not just seeing this in hindsight I warned about this a few months ago so there it is a wave down b-wave and I think this is a seawave taking us down eventually to the lows we made in 2023 to about here about by the $100 level but I think we could potentially exceed that level again I'm not saying it's going to happen in a few weeks this could take some time uh but eventually I'm looking for the retest of that low in 2023 for that seawave okay and I think by the way I think what's Happening Here let me show you in this chart so what I'm saying here I actually think that uh it's quite likely and I'll talk about this in a separate video but if this was our big major Rally from 2010 okay then I think what's happening here we're now in the a wave down I know some of you probably thinking that I was going to say we're here in the seawave in this large magenta seawave down no no I think we are here in this structure in this substructure I think we have now completed a wave down b-wave bounce and we're now in the initial part of the c-wave of the large a wve down that's what I think is happening here I think we're are just in the beginning stages or perhaps in the wave three of the c-wave of the large a-wave down so in other words let's just zoom in here let's zoom in okay in other words keeping it simple if this was our a wve down okay and as we know a waves are composed usually of a three-wave substructure okay as as what I think this was so if this was our a-wave down all right and the b-wave bounds then as long as as long as Tesla stays below resistance this is my higher probability wave count as long as we stay below 205 or even let's say the 200 moving average here then my view is that this is the likely c-wave down and I think within the seawave which will take us eventually to retest the lows of 2023 um probably I don't know exactly when but it could be by the end of this year or perhaps by the start of the New Year okay then I think within this uh c-wave down I think that this was our wave one two I think the wave one down was as a leading diagonal and we're now on the third wave of the c-wave by the way the third wave the seawave will take us down probably eventually down to the $100 level but at the very minimum I think that third wave will take us down to the lows we made uh at 140 138 level the lows we made uh in the last few weeks and months all right guys so that's what I'm looking for I think that uh this bounce so far is looking again very corrective let's go on the daily chart there's nothing that Tesla stock has done so far that has increased the probability we're going to reverse Trend quite the opposite in fact I think everything Tesla stock has done has shown to us that this downtrend is more likely to continue now if Tesla stock was to get above this 200 moving average which is now merging with this 205 level as possible I might change my mind I doubt it I don't think it's likely but I mean even if Tesla here's here's a big problem here I know some of some of you are watching this video right now are probably saying alesio you're ignoring the head and shoulder pattern I know some of you probably saying aha uh alesio is ignoring this head and shoulders uh pattern like this is the first left shoulder the head the right shoulder well okay so some of you probably thinking well if if we take out the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern here the reverse Head and Shoulder uh then that would be bullish I don't think so first of all let me say something about this head-on shoulder patterns are extremely unreliable that's why I don't use them anymore okay so sure sometimes they work but majority of the time they don't work at all secondly you can't just look at the head and shoulder pattern and ignore what's happening in the broader Market you have to look what's happening in the NASDAQ you have to look at the overall structure of the market okay here's a big problem even if even if we were to allow that we have a neckline of a head and shoulder pattern let's say let's say that Tesla did break out above the neckline above 205 we still have resistance here we still have resistance at the 200 moving average and the trend line resistance right over here okay so it's not enough um if Tesla stock is going to prove to us and show to us that it wants to escape this downtrend and move back into a bullish uptrend well guess what we need to break out not just that neckline of the of the head and shoulder pattern we actually need to break out above several uh levels let me just show you we would have to break above this trend line this downtrend line you're seeing here okay which comes in about 230 approximately the 200 moving average and very importantly we have to take out the highs of uh 2023 the summer of 2023 all these levels would have to be broken in order for us to adopt a bullish perspective I mean fine if I'm going to be charitable I would have to say if Tesla was to break above this trend line then sure yes okay then if that happens which I don't think is going to happen I think it's highly unlikely but if that occurs sometime this year then yeah I might change my mind I become more bullish on Tesla I don't think it's likely though everything about this rally we had this rally that we had last year showed to us that we had a bewave structure a b-wave rally okay this was it corrective ABC wave and I think we're in a c-wave a c-wave down and so far I think we are in the third wave of the c-wave other words wave one two and that means we're liking the third wave down eventually to go back to retest the lows of 2023 again in the next several months to about a $100 level and potentially even lower than that okay I'm not saying it's going to happen immediately but at a minimum I'm looking for a move down to 140 138 and yes eventually down to uh the 100 level the 161 extension golden ratio extension okay now if Tesla as I mentioned before sorry for repeating this point if Tesla was to get back above this trend line and 205 if it broke above both these levels then sure I would give it the benefit doubt and I might change my mind and become bullish but guys I'm sorry I don't think it's likely so pretty much everything I've said in this video The Wave count and also the structure on the NASDAQ the fact that we're due for a correction in the major stock markets will eventually put downward pressure on Tesla and I think we're going lower by the way if Tesla stuck if Tesla stock was to break down as a confirmation I'm looking for a break down below this purple level so watch this level very carefully okay this purple level at 167 if this level breaks yeah very likely we're going to go down to 140 this um low we made back in the spring so watch this level extremely carefully uh 167 if this level breaks which I think it's going to a sustained move below this will take us down to 140 and then below this level we're going down to 100 which I think is eventually where we're going in the third wave of that c-wave down all right guys that's what I have here on Tesla at the moment all right guys thank you very much indeed for watching this video if you got something from this video please give it a like and also please subscribe for future video updates as well thank you very much indeed bye for now
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