저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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2023년은 2020~2022 약세장 이후 1967년과 유사한 해였으며 S&P500은 약 25% 상승. 2024년도 1968년처럼 선거해 양호한 상승이 예상되나 2023년보다는 완만. 대선 이후 제3년차 성적이 강하고, 약세장 이후 강세장은 1년차 기념일 후 2년차에도 상승 확률이 높음. 강세장이 성숙하며 고성장주 주도에서 전통 가치주로 스타일 전환 가능성. 장기금리는 큰 방향성 없이 변동성 위주, 단기금리는 중앙은행 예측 불가로 큰 관심 없음. 경제는 가속 성장하나 주식시장은 대단히 강하지 않음.
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this time of year I always tell people what I think the year ahead is going to look like now the bad news is that any kind of forecasting is always imperfect you try to take heris about how things work and assimilate them with your understanding of how things are to come up with how you think things will be uh I want point out that I've just done my New York Post column to this effect uh where I stick my neck out and say stupid stuff that maybe gets me in trouble but partly I want to remind you of the way 2023 was and then Christmas Day 2022 my New York Post column forecast what I thought 2023 would be like and it worked out pretty well what I said then which sounded ridiculous at the time and it's it's actually better to read the comments about my New York Post column on the comment section than reading the New York Post Gollum itself to see how much people thought I was an idiot which there's a certain amount of validity for what I said was that when I look at all of history 2020 22 now last year was the closest in in any history year that I can find to 1966 in so many ways it's never perfect but almost so including a bare Market bottomed almost to the day when the bare Market bottomed in 2020 two and six at the same time same magnitude uh Rising interest rates uh increasingly unpopular president all of those things and therefore I said pretty good likelihood that 2023 would be a lot like 1967 now in and as the column said in 1967 the S&P of was up 24% this year as we're coming to the end of 20203 the S&P 500's up a little over 25% it's pretty been been like 1967 was President becoming increasingly unpopular there was already becoming unpopular interest rates having hit their peaks and not going higher the widely anticipated recession that never happened this is both 1967 and 2023 and my basic view is that we probably see 2024 look a lot like 19 1968 also a positive year in the stock market also an election year smaller returns than 2023 or 1967 had uh the 1968 S&P 500 returns were 11% not partying on like 2023 was but still nothing to snort out now let me make a couple of points that will seem maybe a little bit crazy to you but I do believe they're fundamentally related to causal factors and some of these I've said in other places and other times throughout the course of 2023 a fact is that that 11% number is real consistent with the average return of presidential elections over the course of the history of the S&P 500 number one number two presidential election years over the course of the S&P 500 have not been as consistently positive as the third year of president's terms which have been positive 92% of history but they've been much more positive than the first and second year the fourth year prison terms been positive 83% of History there's not very many presidential election years that have have gone negative presidents tend to be nicer then they tend to make more promises there tends to be no controversial legislation in presidential election years but there's a killer Point inside the data of election year and non-election year returns that you will have not heard if you haven't heard it from me or from Fisher Investments which is that if you take all of the second years of President terms like 22 was where there have been midterm election years but all of the second Year's president terms that were negative the subsequent fourth year was positive every single time since 1932 no exceptions with average returns of 15% and the reason for that is I do believe causal and I do believe it's because bare markets in a second year or just bare markets in general scare the babers out of us and once as I've said multiple times multiple ways once we get the babers scared out of us it takes a long time for us to get our babers back and the babers are the part where we're jab jab jab jab jab and get nervous about all kinds of stuff leading us into a bare market we've already had that taken out of us and so it takes us a long time to get it back a simple point that I've made many many times is that when a new bull market gets to a oneyear anniversary it is almost almost always in history hit a secondy year anniversary it hit that Oney year anniversary in October 2023 so the odds favor it being higher in October 2024 all of these things speak to my mind of not a year like 2023 with knockout stock market returns which is bouncing off the bottom of the 2022 bare Market but of a continuation of that bull market as it run from in a classical John Templeton modality of bull markets being born on pessimism grow on skepticism mature on optimism Dian Euphoria the transition from skepticism into the beginnings of optimism in 2024 a more mature bull market now in that as that maturing bull market occurs it's very likely that we start to see some style shift and not all the continued leadership that bounced off the bottom and one of the points that I made all throughout 2023 which worked pretty well is that categories not every single stock but categories that tend to fall the most in a bare Market initially tend to bounce the most early in the next bull market we've been in that pretty much all through 2023 as contrary to what most people expected the high quality growth stocks that did the worst Tech and consumer luxury in the bare Market of 2022 have led the bull market of 2023 that'll probably continue early on for a little while but probably Fades at some point during the year and tends to switch sometime during the year they'll have to be watched more closely for more precise timing to what would become conventional value leadership when exactly that occurs it probably occurs as we begin to realize that the economy has been both Secret ly and silently as I've written about normalizing and also that GDP is accelerating so the companies that don't naturally have inherent growth qualities begin to be able to get some of the benefits of growth from the economy that's my general view now as a subset of that is I don't really see interest rates long rates having a big reason to move one way or the other what'll happen to short rates darn to Fino that's under the told of the crazy people that run central banks and as I've always said Central Bankers are crazy and you don't try to make predictions about what crazy people will do because they're uh crazy and the fact of the matter is that uh they never know what they're going to do they never ever know what they're going to do even though they say this and they say that and they say the other that that what all the things they say are very inconsist what they end up doing because they don't know what they'll do since they don't know you can't know I can't know and it also doesn't matter as much as people think as I've written about a lot in 2023 Central Banking doesn't have the power that it once had for a whole series of reasons so long rate shouldn't have a huge move in 2023 one way or the other probably might move down a little might move up a little that's go volatility but no real huge directional move short rates I don't know not really very concerned so with that that's basically my view of the economy except accelerating economy good but not super great stock market long rates little volatility but not some big Direction and a world that's better still than most people right now expect it to be if there's problems ahead I expect him to be early in the next presidency thank you very much for listening to me I hope you found issues this is Ken Fischer subscribe to the fis videos
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