저자: MattMurphy · 외국인
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마벨은 올해 매출 전망을 120억달러, 내년 180억달러로 상향했고 데이터센터 매출 비중이 크다. 엔비디아와 파트너십 및 지분투자, 구글과 워런트 계약(약 59백만주, 지분 약 6~7%)을 맺었다. 2016년 CEO 취임 후 시가총액은 약 40배 상승했으며, 4~5년 뒤 목표 제시를 위해 10월 6일 투자자 행사를 예고했다. 발언자는 주가 상승과 사업 성과를 강조했고 과거 발언의 정확성을 내세웠다. 구체적 주가 방향 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
Okay, what the heck just happened to the stock of Marll reported a week and a half ago? This semiconductor company with a major data center exposure reported a healthy beat raise. Yet, the stock plunged more than 10% the next day. Seems silly. Why did it get hit so hard? Some of that's because the expectations were extremely high since the stock's been on fire.
Some of it's because we got more color on Marll's collaboration with Google. They're making chips to rival Nvidas, but it turns out it'll be years before they really start boosting the numbers. Still, the company's making fortunes versus what we thought it could not that long ago. Earlier today, we spoke with Matt Murphy.
He's the chairman CEO of Marll to get a better sense of what's happening here. Take a look. All right, so Matt, welcome to New York. This has been a remarkable time for the company. I've never seen these many great things happen at your company right now. Yeah, thanks Jim. I mean, it's been a it's been a a lot of change this year in the positive sense.
I mean, when I was on your show in December, I think in some ways I was on the defense and you asked me some very pointed questions about competition and things like that. Uh, turns out all that was overblown completely and these were pressed comments that said that you were going to lose certain contracts that were just untrue, frankly.
Right. Exactly. So we've moved past that and actually I was looking back at that time we were guiding this year to be 10 billion in revenue and next year 2027 at 13 1.5. We're now at 12 for this year and 18 for next year. So we've gone from 23.5 billion last December over the 2-year period to 30 and we're just in September right now.
So that's up like almost 30% in that time frame. So clearly things have gone well. we announced, you know, huge partnership with Nvidia, which Jensen and I came on your show to talk about, including a stake and uh including an equity investment and then also uh recently a partnership with uh a warrant agreement with Google.
So, a lot of good stuff's been happening. The numbers have been great. Companies firing on all cylinders. So, all right. Well, we're going to go into those, but first, everyone's excited about October 6. I'm which is your meeting. I'm excited about an October 6 meeting you gave five years ago, right?
where you told me what could happen and you told me that almost no one believed you. It turned out to be much bigger than even you thought, didn't it? Right. It it did. I mean, I'll give you kind of two data points. Five years ago, we had our last full-blown investor day. And we talked about a growth rate for like a three-year period of 15 to 20% per year with operating margins in the 38 to 40% range, that type of thing.
Uh it's 5 years later. If you look at the 12 billion, we would have grown over 20% a year compounded for the last 5 years. Uh we said we'd hit the operating margin target range uh in Q4. So we we did what we said. Two years ago, we did a very specific AI investor event in New York. And at that time, we had, you know, things had had gotten better.
We had talked about doing 15 billion in data center revenue in 2028 off a $2 billion base from 2023. Okay. Where we're at right now, if you look at the 18 billion total Marbell for next year, over 15 billion of that's going to be from data center. So basically we've come in a full year and taken the company from you know 2 billion in change in data center revenue in 2023 to you know 156 billion next year.
Now you So it's gone very well. It's been fantastic. It was a big It was a big It was a big ramp we have. No, it's been the biggest. But let's talk about the one that may be and I've discussed with you offline. When someone says you're the next trillion dollar company and your company in the dollar said $219, what do you do?
And I'm talking about Jensen anointing you because it had to be a surprise. And holy cow. I mean, you could argue it's a it's a it's a target on your back or you could say I'm going to live up to that man. Where are we? Right. Yeah. So, at Comp Computex in June, I gave a keynote presentation, my first one, and Jensen was one of the guest speakers I had.
And we were talking at that time about how in the in the AI cycle, we've had the compute wave, right, which was all the GPU XPU companies. That was a huge ramp two, three years ago. It's still going. Then we had the memory cycle. And then what I was talking about was the connectivity wave, right, which is now all the connectivity required to connect all the memory and the compute together.
And then Jensen came on stage and um you know, I think backed up that vision and and and certainly had a had a high high hopes for the company. Look, I would say this um we're driving the company uh to you know, levels that I probably couldn't have imagined 10 years when I became CEO. Uh but the the future is very exciting and and investor asked me the same thing recently.
Hey, you know, you're how do you get from here to there, right? Which is like say four times the valuation increase uh roughly four or five times. And I said, look, when I became CEO in 2016, our valuation, our market cap is up like almost 40x since that time. So, look, we got another four to go and it's not easy.
And um you know, that's I think there's an aspirational number out there for sure. We're just focused on driving the business, right? creating the value for the shareholders along the way and uh I'm I'm very excited about this October 6 to give our kind of new 5year marker four to five year marker of where we can go.
Now I'm and I'm going to take it and I'm going to believe you and then some if you had listened to previously now uh when Google comes in at Alphabet and they're they want basically 59 million you could argue in Marvel shares roughly 7% of the company don't you say to yourself guys look you don't need to do this we're thrilled just doing the business obviously they want a partnership very very badly you could have just taken a contract
right yeah I mean so if you if you back up so we have a long-standing history with them. Um I think if you look at the economics and what was put on the table and you look at the total value of the warrant which is um which is 120 billion total cumulative revenue to go get the 6 12%. Um we felt that that that trade was was well worth it.
I mean, what it really says at at a high level is we have customers that want to partner with and they want to be part of our success and and I think some of it frankly is I've known you for a very long time. They do want to be part of your success. You've been straightforward. You've come out of nowhere.
You've done an amazing job. They want to partner with Matt Murphy. Well, I think so. I think they want to partner. I'll tell you this. in the in this market these large hypers scale customers and the ecosystem around it. It's really based on trust. Yes. In the end, can you trust the engineering team and the company's going to deliver the chip?
Can you trust the management team that they're going to shoot you straight? Can you trust that the capacity and the supply is going to be there? And can you trust the CEO at the end of the day that's going to do right by you? And I think we spent 10 years building the business here. This is no fly fly by night new thing that we just got into.
We called out this data infrastructure opportunity in 2016 know is the next big wave. Okay. And so I've been building this company from a very different point of view from 10 years ago into one that's focused on that market and I think trust has been a huge part of it and our brand and our credibility.
Is trust tougher with Amazon, which you have an amazing relationship, when they turn around, they do a deal with Qualcomm that arguably could have gone to you or because this your stock is up, maybe I'm making the wrong judgment. Maybe that's a separate kind of business. Yeah. Well, I'd say this. I think it's a it's a competitive market and kind of per my earlier comment, AI's now become the market to be in.
Yes. But this is the market we identified 10 years ago. So we've been quietly and slowly and now more publicly because we've gotten bigger building that business up. We have meaningful relationships with all the big four hyperscalers. We actually do custom silicon gym for all four on optical connectivity.
We are the market category leader. We effectively invented the category with Infi which is a great company that we merged with and acquired in 2021. That team has done phenomenal and that connectivity supplies across the entire ecosystem. So we're very confident in our position and how we've evolved in this market across all the US hyperscalers and the entire ecosystem.
Well, we we should also talk about I mean I was shocked you were gave a terrific intro to Lip Bhutan in 2022 for the noise award. So it's not just optic and it's not just AI. You have tremendous relationships even say with Intel. Absolutely. We are basically the Switzerland of this entire market right now.
We work with everybody. Um, and I think the fact that we are agnostic to the XPU or the GPU and because we're the leader in optical connectivity, which is effectively a merchant product, it sells across all of the different um customers and the different types of connectivity. So, we have the broadest product line with the highest performance and that's very valuable to these customers.
Well, look, I want to congratulate you on all your success, including coming on here uh when the stock was appreciably lower, having bought a lot of stock, and just faced the music and said basically, "Yes, you're the signal. The rest was noise." Those who believed you caught a triple. Those who didn't, I have nothing to say to them.
Hey, a bunch of us, you know, myself, my CFO, and my two group presidents, we all bought stock in the mid70s. Well, people should look for that when you're trying to find a stock. Look for a conviction. Matt Murphy, Marbell, chairman and CEO. Congratulations and we'll look forward to October 6th. Thanks, Tim. Thank you.
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