저자: TomLee—제목기준출연자,소속Fundstrat · 외국인
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Tom Lee가 CNBC에서 향후 8주간 투자자 주의를 촉구하며 S&P500 7~10% 조정 가능성을 언급. 9월 고용지표와 9/18 FOMC 금리 인하 여부가 변수. 진행자 Money Vest는 9월·10월 계절성상 약세 가능성과 조정 시 매수 기회를 강조. S&P500 P/S 2.9배, P/E 23 수준으로 역사적 상단. 11월 선거 이후 연말 강세 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
what's up everyone it's car with bunny vest so Tom Le was on CNBC just a few minutes ago so this interview just ended uh less than about 30 minutes ago so I had the time to essentially go over it and take some notes and break down exactly what he said and it's actually to my surprise was word for word what I have already addressed in my previous videos this is actually no kidding I mentioned this in the last two dates that I've sent out on YouTube this was from the long weekend and I talked about how there is opportunities coming and be ready for when they're when they get here right when when the markets actually give us those buying opportunities be ready and this right here is the video that he essentially had on CNBC so he was earlier uh he was there today earlier investors should be cautious for the next eight weeks and he's actually expecting some Market turbulence with about a 7 to 10% correction in the market uh in the next 8 weeks here so this is actually quite interesting because as we know that Tomley tends to be a little bit more of a perable and since 72 to 85% of the times markets tend to move higher depending on the different time frames that you're looking at he is obviously more right than wrong because markets continue to push higher as there is earnings growth productivity growth and markets tend to on a long-term basis keep pushing higher but I think it's really important to take note when Tomley is actually sounding cautious or sounding the alarm for us to be a little bit more careful however he also does mention that there is going to be a buying opportunity for all investors to once again go long a lot of that's going to depend on what happens with the jobs report that comes out later this week on Friday as well as the uh federal reserves meeting on September 18th so the rate cut is very much priced and baked into the market here so definitely do check out that video if you have the time but this right here are some of the more important things that he discussed and those are a lot of things that we have already talked about on the channel before I've mentioned you know be ready be prepared I'm raising my cash exposure once again to get ready to buy another uh potential correction or pullback in the markets considering how elevated we are from a earnings standpoint from a valuation perspective as well as from a technical analysis standpoint uh not to mention the money vest index the volatility everything is really suggesting for some pretty extreme readings that we are getting in the market so market growth fears will persist and the market cares more more about the unemployment ratees and the initial claims as we have already discussed a lot of that you know the markets are really fixated on where the unemployment is because that's really what's going to dictate whether we get a higher rate cut in other words a more aggressive rate cut or just about a 25 basis point rate cut or if the Federal Reserve is going to backpedal that rate cut allog together if these strong jobs reports continue so this jobs report will be a nice strong bounce back higher is what Tomley mentioned but he also said but hopefully it's not too strong because that might Force Force the FED to backpedal on rate cuts and that's actually quite interesting because you know the Federal Reserve is in a very very tough situation tough position and and you know Jeremy uh Jeremy seagull from Wharton also mentioned that the Federal Reserve is really risking uh you know the economy by not cutting rates sooner because they've already missed the boats in other words they're a little too late in cutting interest rates and they're really just playing with fire to let the economy go on for a little bit longer to see how far we can go with these higher interest rates and then they're going to finally make the decision of cutting interest rates so you know it's kind of an interesting situation for the FED because if the jobs report comes in too strong right that's good for the economy but that's really going to force the FED to re-evaluate right how the situation is uh with respect to the economy with respect to spending and the consumers and all that stuff um and that's going to really Force the FED to maybe backpedal on rate Cuts altogether which is obviously going to create this Market Dynamic where the markets will have to repic interest rate cuts out of the markets and that won't be good um but of course if you get an unemployment rate which is accelerating higher so 4.4 4.5 if that starts to get worse that may not be great news for the economy right because that's going to be signaling more you know probabilities of a potential recession but it's going to be good news for the market and for the Federal Reserve because then again we'll be pretty much locked in on at least a 25 basis point cut if not more he also Goes On by saying that investors should be cautious uh for the next 8 weeks so so 8 weeks in other words 2 months September and October our seasonality analysis tells us that September towards the last week of September tends to be more severe um in terms of the market selloff and October tends to be a bottom for the market as we've already witnessed in the last 3 to four years and even going back further and also uh in in an environment where summer July through August we are up 5% at least October 18th to October 28th so those are the 10 days that actually tend to be more brutal because there's been more times we've been down in those 10 days than we' have been up in fact I think that ratio is about 4 to 18 or 4 to 19 I think something like that we broke that down in our yesterday's video so definitely do check that out but he's essentially cautioning investors to be careful for the next 8 weeks and markets have been up seven of the eight months so it's an incredibly strong Market the next 8 weeks people get a chance to buy just be ready to buy that dip something that I've mentioned in my previous updates and two things that they are watching very quick closely that's front Strat is Bitcoin and energy Bitcoin for risk on and riskof environments and energy for election outcomes um and 7 to 10% correction is possible that's what he mentioned I think that was quite the headline there with a 7 to 10% correction according to Tom Lee is possible and we should expect Market turbulence and I think investors will get a buying opportunity 5% pullback is very likely and we'll find out more from the jobs report and I'd be buying that dip on Friday is what Tom Le essentially mentioned um this right here is another really interesting chart that I want to go over so we cover the price to earnings multiple but Charlie Bilo is here is talking about the price to sales multiple for the S&P 500 which I think is also really important for us to look at because right now we're trading at 2.9 times sales and that's nearly double the historical median in approaching its peak valuation from fourth quarter 2021 so if you take a look at where we are we were at 2.09 uh during the 2022 selloff that's where we kind of bottomed out and we were at well over three in the beginning of that selloff of 2022 and we were at just over 3.04 at the end of 20121 right now as it stands we are at 2.93 which again is double almost double the historical median and average values for price of sales price of sales is nothing but the overall market cap of the S&P 500 which I think is sitting at just under $50 trillion and these sales generated by all the companies right all the companies that are part of the S&P 500 so you know we're looking at what $50 trillion in market cap and again we're at about 2.93 so again you you do the math here so 50 divided by 2.93 we're looking at about $17 trillion in sales for S&P 500 companies right because S&P 500 companies right now are trading at 2.9 times that's a multiple of their sales right because that's the collective valuation of S&P 500 which again you'll notice is a pretty extreme level altogether we can also look at the price earnings which is now at over 23 so we're in the 90th percentile um at the moment as well based on those valuations and this right here is Ryan detri also suggesting that September 2nd 2023 September 2nd 2024 the S&P 500 both the were up well in the double digit 17 or 18% and last year and this year look a lot alike so far and really suggesting for the idea that September may not be the best month for the market September and October where we do see a little bit of weakness here but again going into the last quarter of 2024 especially when you consider election outcomes in November uh could be a very very strong time to be uh to be a buyer in the market and of course trading to the long side where we can see a very blowout uh blowout close for the markets altogether so there's a lot of um you know essentially there's a lot of um consensus basically a forecast that September October and now we've even gone Tom Lee on board with that same type of analysis is what we've talked about from a seasonality perspective that that things can get turbulent volatility could be higher markets can see a little bit of that um of that pullback or a dip anywhere from 57 to as much as 10% and that's only going to create buying opportunities and I really want everybody watching this channel to be prepared right to be ready for when we do see one I'll keep you guys updated with the money vest index with volatility with different percentiles and different things that we're looking at from the money vest dashboard to then take advantage of those dips uh and of course close out the year fairly strong after the election and again November December December being one of the strongest months for the markets altogether so hope you all enjoyed this video found it helpful lso share these videos with your friends and family other Traders and investors that can benefit from the message of these videos and as always
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