저자: HamishHodder · 외국인
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결론: 버핏은 주식을 '사지 않는' 것이 아니라 저평가된 기업이 있을 때만 사는 원칙을 일관되게 지키고 있으며, 2020년 3월 순매도도 원칙상 일관된 행동이라는 주장. 2020년 3월 폭락 당시 버크셔는 주식을 순매도했고, 2021년 1~3분기 13F에서도 13개 종목을 줄이고 5개만 늘린 것으로 언급됨. 이는 '공포 시 매수' 원칙과 충돌해 보인다는 시각이 있음. 버핏 주주총회 답변 인용: 현금은 자산의 약 15% 수준을 유지하며, 2020년 3월에는 500~750억 달러를 투입할 수 있었으나 투자할 만한 좋은 기회를 찾지 못했다고 설명함. 연준과 재무부의 신속한 대응(3월 23일 조치)으로 시장이 안정됐다는 점도 언급함. 영상 진행자의 해석: 버핏의 핵심 기술은 바닥 타이밍이 아니라 저평가 기업을 식별하는 것이며, 거액 자금 운용 때문에 투자 대상이 극히 제한된다는 점을 강조함. 자사주 매입에 대한 버핏 설명: 자사주 매입은 현금을 원하는 주주에게 지분을 매각해 나머지 주주의 지분 가치를 높이는 방식이며, 저평가일 때만 정당하다고 봄. 개인 투자자에게는 버핏의 원칙은 따르되, 행동(순매도)을 그대로 따를 필요는 없다고 조언함. 소형 투자자는 버크셔가 못 보는 기회를 잡을 수 있다는 논지. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않음. 금리·환율·지수에 대한 전망도 없음. 출연자 전망: 채널 운영자는 버핏 행동을 원칙의 일관성으로 해석하며, 향후 방향에 대한 직접적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
it's true guys the day has come finally and i cannot believe it but warren buffett has quit buying stocks okay well not entirely but his buying and selling habits recently seemed to deviate from his lifelong value investing principles and we should talk about it and there's been a lot of different seemingly changes to warren buffett's behavior particularly over the past 12 months but i think the most notable is the fact that he was a net seller of stocks in march of 2020 during the worst stock market crash in over a decade a decision in hindsight that seems to have been the wrong one and the change in buffett's behavior has not gone unnoticed because at the 2021 berkshire annual meeting buffett was asked specifically about it you spent years accumulating cash insisting you had your elephant gun ready the march 2020 listed equity sell-off came with promises from the us government that they would do what it takes yet you sat on your hands please help me understand what i missed so in today's video i'm going to be sharing with you buffett's explanation for not buying stocks and while it seems like buffett selling into a crash and not buying is a change of behavior it actually represents him being incredibly consistent with his principles i put a ton of effort into making this video so if you do get some value out of it i would very much appreciate it if you could take two seconds to leave a like on the video and hey if you get a ton of value out of today's video consider hitting that subscribe button to stay up to date with new content that i post in the future but with that said let's jump into the video warren buffett through berkshire hathaway has bought some stocks over the past 12 months and invested in some other things such as gas pipeline assets but for the most part he's been a net seller of stocks which is a change in behavior considering we just saw the greatest crash or greatest opportunity to invest in businesses in over a decade in march and april of 2020 when the u.s stock market was down almost 40 percent from its highs berkshire was a net seller of stocks meaning they sold more stocks than they bought and this behavior of mostly being a net seller particularly during a market crash seems like a dramatic change from the way that buffett approaches investment and there's one particular principle that he seems to be breaching by selling into a crash rather than buying and that principle is to buy stocks when there is blood in the streets in march the entire world halted to a stop during the onset of the pandemic and investors were certainly panicking with the market down so much so quickly but buffett wasn't just selling last year he continues to be a net seller even in 2021 and as recently as just a couple of days ago we got the latest 13f filing for berkshire hathaway where we could see the trades that buffett had made through berkshire hathaway from january to march of 2021 and in that filing we could see not only that the overall berkshire portfolio shrank during the quarter compared to the previous quarter but berkshire hathaway ended up reducing or selling 13 stocks while only adding to five so if you like me are a lifelong follower of warren buffett you might be wondering scratching ahead and wondering what the hell is going on why has warren buffett changed and should i change my investing behavior to mimic warren buffett in any way or is there something that i need to be thinking about in terms of my own personal portfolio and fortunately for us he was asked a question directly about him selling into the crash during march of 2020 during the 2021 annual meeting so we got to see his direct answer to this question and here is that clip for you you spent years accumulating cash insisting you had your elephant gun ready the march 2020 listed equity sell-off came with promises from the us government that they would do what it takes yet you sat on your hands please help me understand what i missed oh what we we have about our cash on hand has been about 15 percent of our our values of our businesses and uh that's that's a healthy chunk and i'd say it'll never get below 20 billion but we're going to raise that number because it's just the size and importance of berkshire uh but we we we could have deployed uh 50 or 75 billion uh and right before the fed act i mean we hit a point uh where the calls were two calls came in uh but it was two or three days nothing could happen when jay powell acted as he did that was incredibly important i mean i shouldn't say the fed acted as they did but they they moved with speed and a decisiveness on march 23rd that changed the situation where the economy had stopped the government bond market was even disrupted berkshire hathaway probably could not have gone out with a debt offering uh the day before that uh that was didn't get a lot of publicity time but there was a run on money market funds a very substantial run and uh if you look at the numbers daily numbers on that it was a repeat of september 2008 and this time i give great credit to what bernanke and paulson did but this time the fed knew that saying whatever it takes and saying it and demonstrating it which they did on march 23rd they took a market where berkshire couldn't sell bonds on the day before and turned it into one where carnival cruise lines or something like this a day or two later it and there was you know it's record issuance of corporate debt and uh companies losing money companies were closed whatever it was it was the most dramatic move that you can imagine and and at the time as i remember the chairman's saying uh you know have a little help on the on the fiscal front and then congress acted very very big again in 2008 and nine they argued about you know we don't want to give anybody those dirty banks all that sort of thing but this time there really wasn't anybody to blame so uh they had they saw what was necessary and congress responded so you had fiscal monetary policy that responded in a way that was incredible and it did the job and it did it i think it did a better job than either the fed or the treasury or anybody expecting i mean this this economy right now is 85 of it is is running in super high gear and uh people can't uh you know and and you're seeing some inflation and all of that it it's responded in an incredible way and we learned something out of 2009 and then we applied but i don't think it was a sure thing that would happen and the one thing about berkshire is we never do we never want we don't want to depend on anybody we're not a bank we can't go to the federal reserve if we need money and we've got to we've got to be sure that under any circumstances any circumstances we can't solve nuclear war and maybe we can't you know but you know branch dubois if you remember and speak our name desire said i depend on the kindness of strangers you can't depend on the kindness of your friends if things really stop i mean i've seen that in several different places and we were started we we were seeing it on march middle march everybody was drawing down the credit lines the banks did not expect that they just weren't sure they were going to be able to draw it on their credit lines 10 days later and so they just drew them down and they took the money out of money market funds we got very prompt i give great credit on both the monetary and fiscal side of what was done but i didn't think it was a sure thing that would happen i didn't know how it would be implemented and it's worked i think it's worked better than just about anybody is expected now buffett in this clip dances around his explanation a little bit so if you're still confused after watching that explanation here's the bottom line warren buffett's skill or his strategy is not in figuring out where the bottom of a crash is or where the turning point of the economy is where it's starting to turn around his skill is in identifying undervalued businesses and buying them only when they are undervalued and there is a distinct difference between those two things there is a massive difference between trying to time the bottom of the market and strategically buying businesses when the price makes sense compared to the future cash flows of those businesses because it can be the case that even after a significant market crash a broad market crash it can also be the case that you still cannot find really really good investment opportunities and this is what buffett is explaining that berkshire was unable to find really really good opportunities where he was confident that he would make money on those investments and this should come as no surprise because buffett isn't just any old retail investor he's trying to invest multiple billions of dollars tens of billions of dollars hundreds of billions of dollars in some cases which means there is a very very small pool of businesses that he could even invest into if he wanted to and even move the needle on berkshire's overall portfolio so as a result even in a significant crash it can be the case for someone investing as much money as buffered where he cannot find a really really good investment opportunity so while some people are looking at his behavior of being a net seller during march and during 2020 and even now as buffett changing his principles that he is no longer buying businesses when there is blood in the street i actually see it another way i actually see it as him being incredibly consistent because he is staying patient and not giving in to a poor deal he is waiting and waiting for a good opportunity to come around and those opportunities are just extremely rare for someone like buffett who is investing hundreds of billions of dollars and while buffett and berkshire hathaway have been a net seller of stocks for many of the past few quarters he has been buying one stock in particular at a significant rate and that is berkshire hathaway stock he has been repurchasing shares of his own stock and here's a clip from the annual meeting where buffett explains why he has been buying back so much of berkshire's shares all right this question comes from denny poland a shareholder from pittsburgh a prominent senator recently categories categorized share buybacks as a form of market manipulation you've often said that repurchasing shares at prices below intrinsic value benefits continuing shareholders could you and charlie please elaborate on the higher order effect that these share repurchases have on society and their way of their way essentially of distributing cash to the people that want the cash when other co-owners mostly want uh you to reinvest and it's a savings vehicle if the four of us sitting at this table decided we'd buy a few dairy queen franchises we formed a little company and we all put in a million dollars or something like that and we buy the dairy queen franchises and they're doing well and three of the four of us want to keep buying more dairy queen franchises and we're not done building and saving for the future and uh we're in the wealth creation business and the fourth one says listen i'm already i've gotten rich enough i'd rather take some money out and uh well there's only two ways to do it we can we can pay dividends all four of us three of us of whom don't want it and and and we can uh we can repurchase the shares at a fair price if it's just the four of us we pick out a fair price and the fourth one gets bought out of his interest uh uh a share buyback is an interesting way to distribute cash to some shareholders while allowing other shareholders who want to not get cash to become larger owners in the business and he explains the difference between a dividend where you're essentially a business paying out cash to every shareholder versus a buyback where cash is going to some shareholders right it's going to the shareholders that are selling their shares uh to berkshire because berkshire is buying them in the open market whereas the rest of the shareholders they don't receive cash but instead they receive a larger piece of ownership their shares become more valuable because let's imagine you owned one share out of 10 if they buy back two shares you now own one share out of eight you've been gone from being a 10 shareholder to being a uh 12.5 percent shareholder i had to think about that for a second but in essence you're becoming a larger percentage owner while other shareholders are able to exit the business and essentially get cash out of their investment and any sensible manager who is considering doing sherry purchases should consider this in the exact same way as if they were buying the stock of any other business so treating your own stock as if it's the same as other stocks in that you should be only buying it if the stock is undervalued if it's a good investment if you're getting a good rate of return on that investment if you're paying a small price compared to the cash flows that business will produce in the future because if it is not the case that it is worth the management team spending money to repurchase their stock then it would probably be better if the management team either spent that money to make some other kind of investment that has a better rate of return or to pay a dividend distribute cash to shareholders and then shareholders can then find a different investment to put that money to work so a lot of you if you are following warren buffett's principles might be wondering whether you should be following buffett's actions and also become a net seller of stocks or whether you should be loading up on cash or how you should be treating your portfolio and whether you should be following buffett and i think a smart way to approach it is to follow warren buffett's principles but not necessarily his specific actions and the reason why is because buffett is at a point where he is in a completely different investing environment than you are as a small individual investor as a little fish you and i there are many different opportunities that we can invest in that berkshire will never even consider because they are too small which means it can be the case that there are investment opportunities available for us that are not available for buffett and as a result you may find yourself being a net buyer of stocks in certain situations where warren buffett and berkshire are a net seller and if you are looking to learn more about warren buffett's principles and how to apply them to businesses in the stock market then consider checking out my four-step stock analysis playlist i'll leave it linked down in the description below i have about 15 videos going through each part of warren buffett's overall strategy so that you can apply that to any business that you want to at in the stock market but that is all for today's video i hope you guys got some value out of it and if you did i would very much appreciate it if you could leave a like on the video and if you want to hit subscribe you can and that way you will be notified and updated when i post content in the future but with that said hope you guys have a great day and i'll see you in the next video
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