저자: PatrickDesjardins · 외국인
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팔란티어 주가가 17달러 아래로 급락했으나 희석(dilution)에 대한 우려는 과장된 것이라고 설명. 내부자 매도와 주식 전환에 따른 매도 압력은 인정하지만 실제 신주 발행 증가율은 연 3% 수준으로 둔화될 것으로 봄. 매출 성장률 30%(2021~2025) 가정 하에 P/S 배수 기준으로 2025년 주가 약 50달러 도달을 현실적 시나리오로 제시하고, 최악(P/S 15배) 시 2025년 약 35.8달러로 4년간 약 2배, 최선(P/S 35배) 시 약 80달러를 제시. 장기적으로 강세 입장 유지.
다듬은 글
hello everyone welcome back patrick here in this video we are going to look at pound here this is a stock that is in a monstrous decline right now uh the stock has absolutely no momentum and we are back to 2020 prices with a stock under 17 it actually broke one of its main support so where is the stock going we are going to address two main concerns in this video the first one is dilution and the second one is i'm going to show you like using very very simple numbers supplied by the company where the stock is going to go in the next few years along with potential share prices so let's get started right now hopefully you find this very useful i know everyone's feeling the pain right now but when you look at it objectively i still believe in pound tier and you probably will too all right guys so currently the share price is under attack under 17 the last time we saw this was back in may 2021 it may extend and recover to 25 to 28 dollars a couple times now one of the main reasons people use to explain these constant drops is insider selling which is 100 true but also dilution there is this misconception that pound tears creating hundreds of millions if not billions of shares and that's why your shares are almost worthless and the stock is going to go to zero now one of the main like articles that people are following i've seen this reference a few times on youtube before is this one from seeking alpha and this tweet from andrew b now he says biggest issue for paluteau is dilution shares outstanding when it went public 9.5 million shares outstanding as of q2 1.89 billion 100 increase in shares all right now if you see this and you don't really understand like the difference between float shares ascending and uh the fully diluted shares then you're going to feel like hey they're taking us like for granted they're just going to print uh shares into oblivion and the company is not going to be worth anything but that's not really understanding what's going on when you're talking about dilution to make it really simple if you have a company that has 10 shares and they are creating 10 more shares well then you know your 10 shares are not worth as much as they were before but what are we talking about shares outstanding like he is right here is confusing the two let's say you have 10 shares and there are only two shares are being traded right now but then new shares come into the market right so you go from two to let's say eight like with pound here well all of a sudden these new people there that their shares are tradable and they're selling it onto the market well that's going to put a lot of selling pressure because paluteer never like made it a secret that for them uh going public was a liquidity event you had all the insiders of the company the employees the executives that shares of the company that they could not actually cash out from by going public now they they can sell it to other investors get some money do whatever they want with it whether it's like invested in something else or actually like buy stuff with them right so it is a liquidity event for them there are more shares in circulation than before it is causing some selling pressure and that is making the share price go down by the same time the company is not diluting the shares by one percent per year especially in the future all right so you can look at the different filings it's kind of boring so i'm not going to go through all of them with you i just need to absolutely like show you uh the basics so you understand it so if you look at it uh december 31st 2020 class a shares outstanding 1.5 billion and it did go to 1.9 billion by september 30 of 2021 so there is more shares in the market than there was before by the same time class b shares goes from 249 million to 89 million right so there's two thirds of the class b shares that are now gone so over time you know shares are converted from the insiders they're sold onto the market but then you don't have to worry about them anymore this is slowing down very rapidly so if you look at this one this is really interesting alex carr back in 2009 was afforded uh or 2009 was 61 million options and then 2011 was eight million options and look at how these expired at the beginning of december 2021 and look at what happened to the stock in the past two months right it has been massively uh going down so there has been a lot of insider selling remember when elon said that he had to pay taxes so he got a lot of shares had to pay taxes so he dumped a lot of them on the market and that did have an effect on tesla exactly the same thing is going on with pound tier it's not them creating new shares right a little like this one with the options but not like billions of new shares in the market now you can look at the executive compensation between now and 2030 if you want to go a little bit deeper into this i'm just going to sum it up for you this is a chart by morgan stanley when they do their projections it's just going to explain how this all works so look at how in 2020 they had 986 million shares and this as the guy said in the article from seeking alpha did go to 1.9 billion so that is a lot more shares of the market and we have felt that right the share price has gone down but look at 2022 and 2023 this goes up to 2.0 like basically 2 billion and 36 million shares and then in 2023 it goes up to about 2.1 right so it is slowing down drastically and then if you go look at the diluted shares meaning all the shares of the company including the ones that are not being traded this goes from 2.3 billion uh this year or 2021 rather to 2.4 billion in 2022 and also 2.4 billion in 2023 so they predict that it's going to go up about three percent from uh per year going forward so not going to double by 100 every year now once you understand this we can actually go look at the actual numbers to figure out what's going on with the price and where it's actually going to go in next few years and i feel like this is going to be very reassuring for you all right guys are you ready for some goofy numbers are you gonna put a smile on your face so here it is back in june of 2021 the stock was trading at 40.72 price of sales ratio this has been shrinking since then december 3505 then december 12th it was at 24.65 as the share price drops the price of sales ratio is going to get lower and lower you're going to see it in my little model that i built we're also going to use 30 revenue growth for 20 21 through 2025 that's the numbers supplied by the company and they almost promise us those numbers they've been really working hard on building their commercial division we're also going to be using 1.52 billion revenues for 2021 we don't have the fourth quarter results yet but let's assume it's around there so when i built this little model here you're going to see the numbers get high very very fast so 2021 1.52 billion revenues this could go as high as 4.3 billion in 2025 30 compounding is very very quick growth right so the numbers are high the stock could uh the company rather could generate as much of three times more revenues in 2025 than they did in 2021 right so that's very very fast growth well you're going to see the stock price actually increase all right so if we use the price sales ratio of 21.97 which is where it is right now you're going to see that the current price to the current share price right was around 17.59 that's kind of what we saw in the past few weeks right so it kind of makes sense that share price based on this current prices sales ratio and this revenue well what happens when the actual revenues go up while the share price has to go up too if we follow the same price to sales ratio so this year could be about 22.87 based on 2 billion revenues and that would be kind of disappointing right a lot of us like i've bought in the 20s so we would be breaking even maybe still red a little bit and that would not be a great year for us however if we go all the way down to 2025 while then that same price of sales ratio that we have right now would equate to about 50.25 share price right so for most of us it would be a double or triple so i know it's not as exciting as me saying hey it's going to 10x but these are very very realistic numbers maybe at that point the stock is going to be different maybe it's going to grow faster slow down a little bit maybe it's going to be based on pe ratio rather than price of sales ratio we don't know quite yet these are the numbers that we have and to me 50 by 2025 is very realistic now let's use a best case scenario and a worst case scenario like if everything goes to what happens well if everything is very euphoric at 35 price of sales ratio keep in mind this happened before right that's where it was in june that's where it was in september right happened multiple times in the past the stock went uh crazy and went high right so here i had 28 dollars and if you notice we actually reached that before so it's not impossible whatsoever well at 35 price of sales ratio this year could actually end at 36 dollars then 2023.47 61 and then 2025 we could go as high as 80 dollars which would be a 4x for most of us now what happens if worst case scenario it goes even lower right currently we see like that multiple compression well what if it goes to 15 instead of uh where it is right now at 22 right well that's when the numbers get pretty bad but again not catastrophic time is on your is in your favor so uh the fair market value like the real value of the stock with a 15 price sales ratio would be around like 1630 in 2022 based on a two billion dollar valuation all right so again like we wouldn't be having a very good year but again that's why like the market's not necessarily about just always timing and it's almost it's also the time that you're in the market by 2025 worst care scenario we would be at 35.80 so everyone that's bought into the stock so far pretty much would be uh profitable at that point for me it would be a double now a double in four years you know it's not really sexy but i'll take it at this point right the stock has no momentum when you look at the worst case scenario and it's a double in four years can you really complain about it that much and i know it feels terrible right now but you have to look at it objectively you guys can actually do the same model if you want like let me know in the comments if you get different results if you think that my assumptions are wrong but again i'm showing you like 15 and 35 the two extremes and the current price of sales ratio so let me know what you guys think i hope it actually helps you understand a little bit more about pound tier i'm still bullish about the company even though right now it's i'm feeling the pain but i'm gonna stick with it i think it has a pretty bright future and i'm very very encouraged with their growth in the commercial space i'll see you guys in the next video
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