저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
금·은·백금은 1971년 금본위제 폐지 이후 화폐 구매력 하락을 반영하며 단기 신고점 가능. 금광주(배릭, 뉴몬트)는 저평가로 100% 이상 상승 여지. 미국 증시는 명목상 강세지만 실질로는 정점이 지났고, 경기침체 진입 시 10년물 금리는 3~3.5%로 하락 전망. 연준 25~50bp 인하는 효과 제한적. 트럼프 경제정책은 비판적. 장기적으로 실물자산 보유 권장.
다듬은 글
The price of gold reflects the decline in the purchasing power of money since the US abandoned the gold standard in August 1971, when gold was worth $35. And now the price of gold probably reflects the rapid increase in the cost of living from 1971 to today. That's my opinion. But, as you know, markets do not move linearly.
They grow strongly, then overheat, then correct for a few years , and then resume their upward trend. Therefore, I would not rule out that gold, silver, and platinum could reach short-term highs in the near future. Gold prices continue to reflect the sharp decline in the purchasing power of fiat currencies since the US abandoned the gold standard in 1971.
The steady rise in precious metals prices is a direct indicator that the actual cost of living has significantly exceeded official economic statistics. Marc Faber, a renowned Swiss economic analy". Predicts that market forces are driving major changes. Financial assets rarely move linearly. They usually overheat, consolidate, and resume long-term trends .
Given the current macroeconomic pressures, gold, silver, and platinum are expected to reach significant new short-term highs in the near future. In the broader perspective, history shows that when central banks continually devalue paper money, physical goods remain the most reliable protection against systemic devaluation.
Owning physical bullion over a 10-year horizon effectively protects capital from constant inflationary pressure. believe the rally in precious metals indicates that inflation was much higher than what was published by the government in the form of CPI, wholesale price index, etc. Do you understand? Mm.
Gold reflects the collapse in the purchasing power of money since the US abandoned the gold standard in August 1971, when gold was worth $35. And now the price of gold probably reflects the rapid increase in the cost of living from 1971 to today. That's my opinion. But, as you know, markets do not move linearly.
They grow strongly, then overheat, then correct for a few years , and then resume their upward trend. So I wouldn't rule out that gold, silver and platinum could hit short-term highs, I would n't rule it out. Likewise, you know, if you ask me, Mark , uh, you're going to go to prison for 10 years—that's always possible, and then you need to invest your assets in one asset class, and only one; you can't diversify.
So, you can choose real estate, or stocks, or bonds, or gold , and you have to choose that and leave it for 10 years. In 10 years, when you get out of prison and want to take your assets, what would you invest in: stocks, bonds? I mean, gold would be a reasonable alternative. Maybe not the best , but I think it will retain its purchasing power.
I've never been a fan of mining companies, but, uh, let's say about 9 months ago I wrote that for the first time I was quite positive about them because they were incredibly cheap compared to the price of gold, which had risen significantly. Mining stocks have n't gone up, but they've gone up significantly this year, and I still like these companies, and I even want to explain to you why.
I think, uh, if you look at Barrick or Newmont, the stocks are up , but not that much compared to the previous highs. So I would say that this is a sector in the market—you ask me about value, what would be desirable, I think these stocks are very desirable, I think Barrick and Newmont could easily go up another 100%.
If you look at, say, the Magnificent Seven stocks, Mr. Trump's magnificent stocks , and compare their market capitalization to the S&P 500. And then you look at mining and oil companies and compare that to the market value of the S&P 500. These mining stocks are incredibly low. Mhm. Also, oil stocks are very low.
Precious metals mining stocks are currently offering a rare valuation gap in today's financial markets. While the spot price of gold is trading near historic highs, major miners remain significantly undervalued compared to past cycles and broader stock indexes. This creates a compelling dynamic where mining companies have significant untapped growth potential as capital inevitably flows into tangible assets.
Leading gold mining stocks are forecast to rise more than 100%, easily doubling in value. Mining companies have enormous operating leverage as long as bullion prices remain high . Corporate profit margins are expanding exponentially, not linearly. This margin expansion makes high-quality miners one of the most asymmetric risk-reward opportunities, far outperforming overheated tech stocks and the market in general.
Now let 's get back to the interview. I think the last 30-40 years have been exceptionally favorable for investors in American stocks. And , you know, I would say we're in a giant asset bubble, not just in U.S. stocks, but also in commodities, especially gold, silver, and platinum. That said, I wouldn't necessarily say that precious metals are in a bubble, but they are clearly in a phase of rapid price growth.
And then, since the beginning of the year, US stocks have been rising nominally, but the dollar has been weak. In other words, in nominal terms, stocks are rising, but the currency is depreciating. Yes. What I can say is that in real terms the market peaked around the time Mr. Trump became President of the United States.
The dollar was exceptionally strong until November 2024, and since then it has weakened. And if you say or argue that it was predicted that the dollar would rise, then I agree, you know, the dollar was strong, but not because of fundamentals. This was based on capital flows. In other words, the world has moved capital into US assets, so the currency remains strong.
But I think Trump has done a lot to destroy, or, let's say, undermine, the trust that people had in America. And it happens. I think he is a destroyer of values in the US. This is my opinion. And he, of course, will say, "Oh, we'll make America great again." I think it will be a disaster. his his economic policy.
I mean, Trump is a complete geopolitical ignoramus. He knows nothing about international economics and politics. Absolutely nothing. The US bond market should be rising because we are heading for a recession. I think we are already in a recession. But, of course, Trump and his henchmen will argue: no, no, we're doing great, and the economy is exceeding expectations, etc.
But the reality is that if you look at the standard of living of ordinary people, they are not doing well. Absolutely not. And wealthy people, including myself, etc., we have benefited from the rise in asset values and have been doing very well for the last 30-40 years. But ordinary people who don't have assets have suffered because their cost of living is rising much faster than their salaries.
So, ordinary people are in trouble, and ordinary people are 70% of the US economy. There are times when the market rises after a rate cut, and there are times when it falls , depending on the expectations that preceded the interest rate cut. But in the current situation, a 25 basis point reduction will not change anything.
If 50 basis points are expected, I think the bond market will react positively, but not too strongly. I mean, I think the bond market will trade until the 10-year yield is between 3% and 3.5%, because I think the economy is much weaker than the Trump team is trying to portray it to be . I think most people are not doing well economically right now .
So, is Jeff Bezos doing well financially right now? Yes. Let's say there are 500 people in the US who are doing extremely well, another 10,000 who are relatively well, and then billions who are doing poorly. Four decades of cheap credit created a huge global asset bubble, causing standard market indices to be significantly overvalued in nominal terms.
However, if we take into account the real devaluation of the currency, the peak of domestic stocks is long past. Today, the vast majority of households, representing 70% of the broader economy, are trapped between stagnant wages and rising costs of living that are eroding real purchasing power. The economy is projected to enter a deep recession due to a decline in real purchasing power, which will trigger a significant rally in the bond market and reduce the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds to 3–3.5%.
A central bank rate cut of 25–50 basis points would prove ineffective against a broader cyclical downturn. The fundamental gap between the rapid rise in asset values for the wealthy and the decline in living standards for ordinary consumers suggests structural vulnerability. As debt burdens rise and consumer spending slows, paper assets face significant downside risks, making real asset allocation and a review of fixed income strategies necessary to preserve capital. episode real assets.
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