저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
마크 파버는 현재 유동성 경색이 진행 중이며 중앙은행 개입이 자산가격을 밀어올렸다가 되돌아가는 국면이라고 본다. 그는 법정화폐가 장기적으로 구매력을 잃을 것이므로 금과 은을 보유하라고 권하고, 미국 정부와 정치인을 신뢰하지 말라고 강조한다. 상업용 부동산과 사모펀드 축소로 다른 자산 매도 압력이 커지고 있다고 본다. 투자자는 수익 극대화보다 손실 최소화를 우선해야 하며, 고위험 투기주는 큰 폭 하락 위험이 있고 장기 국채 같은 채권이 상대적으로 방어적이라고 주장한다. 올해 들어 장기채 ETF TLT는 약 1.6% 하락한 반면 주식은 5~20% 하락했다고 언급한다. 현금 비중을 평소보다 높이고 일부 자금을 10년물 국채(금리 4% 가정)로 옮겼다고 밝힌다. 세계적 디플레이션성 경기침체가 올 수 있고 중앙은행이 금리를 제로 근처까지 내릴 것으로 본다. 신흥국 중앙은행이 유동성 문제로 금과 국채를 매도할 수 있다고 본다. 식량위기 가능성도 제기하며, 아시아는 위기에 익숙해 상대적으로 대비가 잘 되어 있다고 평가한다. 태국 북부 경기는 매우 나쁘다고 언급하며 현지 주식 포트폴리오를 보유하지만 현금 유동성도 확보하려 한다. 중동 전쟁과 관련해 유가가 크게 하락하면 장기적으로 매수 기회가 될 수 있다고 보며, 협상이 성공하기 어렵고 전쟁이 길어질 수 있다고 전망한다. 중국이 호르무즈와 말라카 해협 개방을 지키려 할 것이라고 본다. 지정학 긴장은 핵심 물가를 높이고 원자재 희소성을 키운다고 주장하며, 자산 분산과 실물자산·에너지 투자, 현금 확보를 권한다. 전체적으로 금·은과 현금, 장기 국채를 방어 자산으로 제시하고, 주식·부동산 등 위험자산에는 부정적 입장을 취한다.
다듬은 글
I personally believe that we are in a liquidity squeeze, and it's... it's very difficult to understand this liquidity play, but when liquidity is created, asset prices go up, and as asset prices, including bitcoin, stocks, real estate, etc., go up, it creates liquidity, additional liquidity. M-hm. I think people should own gold and silver because it would be a relatively, uh, relatively good store of value in the long run, or maybe the best store of value.
But I would definitely advise anyone not to trust any government, especially the US government. Today's financial markets are going through an unprecedented period of central bank intervention and volatile liquidity cycles. While Wall Street often preaches perpetual growth, a critical look back reveals hidden systemic fragility.
Marc Faber , an experienced Swiss investor and macroeconomist, warns that global markets are entering a period of severe liquidity constraints. He predicts that standard fiat currencies will eventually lose their purchasing power entirely as central banks redouble their efforts at monetary expansion.
From an independent analytical perspective, this assessment is accurate: paper currencies historically lose real value during long debt cycles, making collateralization with hard assets necessary. Physical gold and silver remain the best protection against inevitable currency depreciation and central bank policy mistakes.
Balancing a portfolio between liquid reserves and real goods offers the strongest protection against future monetary shock personally believe that we are in a liquidity squeeze, and it's... it's very difficult to understand this liquidity play, but when liquidity is created, asset prices go up, and as asset prices, including bitcoin, stocks, real estate, etc., go up, it creates liquidity, additional liquidity.
M-hm. But when the process reverses, liquidity disappears, and in my opinion, uh, liquidity began to disappear from commercial real estate around the world, which was no longer growing, but began to fall in value. truth? And then we have the private equity problem, which some people deny, but I think we're talking about several trillion dollars here, and as private equity funds shrink, other assets need to be sold as well.
And we have the conditions, in my opinion—and most people will disagree with me— but in my opinion, we have an environment where an investor has to ask themselves, "How can I lose the least amount of money?" not how can I make the most money, but how can I lose the least, because if everything goes down, some assets will fall by 90%, and companies associated with Trump and his children will fall to zero.
Oho. But other companies, stocks, investments, and residential real estate will fall by somewhere between 30% and 50%. And some things may only drop by 10%. So an investor should look for assets that fall only slightly. And people look at me like I'm crazy when I tell them to buy bonds. But the thing is, since the beginning of the year, the long-term bond ETF, TLT, has fallen only 1.6%.
Do you understand? And stocks fell by about 5%, 15%, or even 20%. So I'm just saying that bonds aren't the best investment, but they've proven to be better than a lot of other things. Mhm. And of course, I own gold, but I do n't think people should rush out to buy it right now. I think that central banks in many developing countries may be forced to sell bonds and gold due to liquidity issues.
They are running out of money. You raised an important issue. I think if you look at it as a contrarian, the whole world is used to buying things because they expect them to go up in price. Mhm. But historically, in the long run, cash has been a good investment if you can preserve it. So I believe, as Greenspan once said when he was chairman of the Fed, the US government will pay the interest.
The only question is how much the money will be worth at that point. I think the dollar is not bad compared to other currencies, because other currencies are no better . So, as an investor, I personally hold more cash than usual and have moved some of my funds into bonds for the simple reason that I see the possibility of a global depression, during which central banks, in their usual foolishness, will cut interest rates to near zero.
Mhm. So you won't get any interest on short-term deposits. But if I can buy a 10-year Treasury bond with a yield of 4%, then for me it is an acceptable investment in the current conditions. Yes, it's not the best investment, but it's probably better than losing money overnight. My answer to this question is very simple.
Everyone should have some gold and silver and not worry about their value in the very long term . It's quite obvious to me that paper money will be worthless. They wo n't be worth anything. Mhm. If you look at the governments, at the quality of public officials that exist today in Europe and especially in the United States, how can you trust paper money?
How can you trust? Yes, you can't. And I think Walsh is a smart person, even in the circumstances in which he will find himself at the head of the Federal Reserve. Uh, maybe he has no choice but to print money. Yes. And under these conditions, I think people should own gold and silver because it would be a relatively, uh, relatively good store of value in the long run, or perhaps the best.
But I would definitely advise anyone not to trust any governments, especially the US government. Mhm. As global capital is rapidly shrinking , institutional sectors such as commercial real estate and private equity face significant downside risks. During major market reversals, smart portfolio management should shift focus from aggressive pursuit of returns to strict loss minimization.
While high-risk speculative stocks risk catastrophic declines, fixed-income instruments like long-term Treasury bonds offer relative protection. A deep global economic slowdown is likely to trigger a deflationary depression, eventually forcing central banks to cut interest rates to near zero. From a strategic market perspective, such a forecast is quite likely.
During historical liquidity freezes, holding a tactical mix of cash reserves and long-term debt provides a vital protective shield during systemic contractions. Furthermore, cash-strapped emerging economies will likely be forced to liquidate gold and Treasury reserves to meet immediate dollar liquidity needs.
Capital protection during liquidity crises at at the same time, a food crisis cannot be ruled out , when countries do not receive enough food or food prices rise so much that ordinary or working-class families can no longer afford food and basic necessities. Mhm. Do you understand? The economy is slowing down.
This should lead to lower interest rates and lower inflation rates. But the economic slowdown around the world is accompanied by shortages, which causes prices to rise, and that's probably the worst environment for poor people, which can lead to significant, uh, social problems. Mhm. But I think Asians are better prepared for this, uh, situation because they live in crises over and over again .
And in most Asian countries, we do n't actually have social security to talk about , right? So when things go badly, people have to tighten their belts. I mean, I can say that in Thailand, uh, at least here in the north, the economy is on the rocks. Mhm. In fact, it's kind of scary that business has fallen so much, isn't it?
The stock market hasn't fallen much, but it could happen. I have a portfolio of stocks in Thailand because I live here, and I'm worried that in the future you and I won't be able to transfer money, say, from country A to country B. So I want to have liquidity here in Thailand. But overall, business conditions are very poor, and many people are simply left with nothing.
Nothing. Oho. Plus, they are in debt, because this is a war that started when the world had the highest level of debt in history. Yes? You know, if you look at World War I or World War II , uh, debt as a percentage of the economy, of the world economy, was low, and now it's at an all-time high , especially, uh, for the United States going into the war.
Agree. But Mr. Trump, we have to see this very clearly. Uh, debts and loans don't interest him because he never paid anything back. Yes. Agree. His companies went bankrupt many times. He's used to borrowing money and not paying it back, especially after Trump, uh, changed the government in Venezuela.
Some countries must be thinking, "Well, could it happen that he will change us?" His mood changes, taxes, and so we don't really know the real motives for this war, except that every war is very profitable for certain people, and as long as wars continue, some people make a lot of money, including Mr.
Zelensky in Ukraine. Mhm. So I don't know, I mean, I don't know what the outcome will be. It seems to me that the market reaction is exaggerated. In other words, a drop in oil prices of this magnitude, in my opinion, would rather create an opportunity for buying than for selling, because the vulnerability of the global system still exists.
And secondly, uh, I doubt the negotiations will be very successful because, if you think about it, Iran's demands are impossible to satisfy. This is not discussed at all . Second, the US demands cannot be met, or the Israeli demands cannot be met. So the two sides are so far apart that negotiations are unlikely to be successful.
Is n't that right? And, uh, under such conditions, what is an investor to do? In my opinion, we need to diversify assets and, uh, recognize that we don't know what the results will be. We do not know how the negotiations will proceed, because we are dealing with people who may act not for purely rational reasons, but guided by the instinct of self-preservation.
Netanyahu wants war because it justifies his political power, right? Trump needs war because he cannot admit defeat. And Iranians are less concerned about the harm done to their country than about maintaining power. They know that if they surrender, they could lose power, right? So in my opinion, the war could last quite a long time and will escalate , because if you think about it, the Asians, particularly the Chinese, will not want the US to control the flow of oil to the Far East.
Is n't that right? They will ensure that the Strait of Malacca, which is even narrower than the Strait of Hormuz, remains open. And they will ensure that the Strait of Hormuz is not controlled by the US. The growth of global debt, combined with the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, is pushing the world economy towards unprecedented structural shocks.
A serious global food crisis is predicted to erupt, leading to a surge in prices for basic commodities. While economic downturns usually curb inflation, structural supply constraints will instead significantly increase basic living costs, provoking widespread socio-economic instability. Given macro-historical trends, we believe that increased geopolitical frictions almost always increase core inflation, confirming concerns about long-term resource scarcity.
Paradoxically, a significant drop in crude oil prices will offer extraordinary long-term buying opportunities as deep-seated energy vulnerabilities remain unresolved. At the same time, major Eastern economies will act decisively to protect critical sea lanes, such as the Straits of Malacca and Hormuz, from Western influence.
Building resilience to these macroeconomic challenges requires strategic asset diversification: from physical commodities and energy projects to strategic cash reserves. If this was help releas.
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