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I'm taking a big gamble. Good evening, this is Shiawase from the surprisingly chicken-friendly seminar. Will soxl really go up? Because soxl fell by as much as 88% in 2022. By the way, this is a basic question, but what exactly does soxl invest in? There is no company called soxl, is there? SxL invests in the IC Semiconductor Index.
It is designed to move three times the daily movement of this IC Semiconductor Index. 30 companies are selected for the IC Semiconductor Index. In order to be included in these 30 companies, one must meet some pretty strict conditions. For example, a market capitalization of over 100 million US dollars, a real estate ratio of 5% or more, monthly sales not falling below 1.5 million shares for the past 6 months, and being among the top 30 stocks by market capitalization.
So only the following top-tier companies that meet these strict conditions can be included in this IC Semiconductor Index. It's not a market capitalization-weighted average, so it's designed to avoid concentration on a single stock. But even so, it's falling now, isn't it? It's not going up at all, is it?
I'm sure there are people who are angry like that. So why is it falling? Hey, hey, sis, I'll tell you the reason, so why don't you take a break for a bit? There are various reasons, but it's probably the flow and demand phenomenon unique to the semiconductor sector. Demand for PCs, smartphones, and cryptocurrency mining has slowed down.
That's why the semiconductor index has fallen, and SOXL, which moves three times as much every day, has also fallen sharply. But will this decline in demand continue forever? What was it like in the past? That's right, the demand for semiconductors has been steadily increasing, as shown in this graph.
And there are handtire cycles here and there. The economy also has its ups and downs. So, there are times when the demand for semiconductors slows down. But in the long run, it has continued to grow steadily. Even if you pull up other data, the market size of semiconductors is Basically, there are dips here and there, but in the long term, there has been an upward trend, and despite the ups and downs, the market size has continued to expand.
In the long term, it has been on an upward trend. Furthermore, massive investments, and I mean enormous investments, are steadily progressing in the semiconductor sector. Intel will invest $30 billion to expand its production capacity. Micron Technology will invest $100 billion, the largest investment ever in the New York State market, to expand memory chip production, and moreover, memory chip production within the United States.
This investment alone is said to create 50,000 jobs, and this flow of investment is further boosted by the semiconductor industry support law, a bill championed by Biden. So the whole country is supporting investment in the semiconductor sector. But that's not all. Technological advancements in semiconductors never stop.
There are countless examples of this, but to give just one example, Bridgestone will start producing tires with anti-chip technology from next year. This will allow them to extend the lifespan of the tires and maintain them at the appropriate time. It can be inspected, and it's also environmentally friendly.
Can you believe it, everyone? These are tires with semiconductors in them. It's completely unrelated. Tires, which you thought were just lumps of rubber, are evolving this much. Semiconductors themselves are evolving, and products containing semiconductors are also evolving rapidly. And we can see semiconductor stocks rising.
I mean, it's not just semiconductors, stocks of everything are cheap right now, and one of the biggest reasons for that was the messiness of China's economic measures. However, with the Party Congress approaching and popularity restrictions coming next year, and retirements, there are reports that the people responsible for China's economy will all retire and be replaced by younger generations.
There is a high possibility that the Chinese economy will make a major recovery. And many people think the cause of this decline is interest rates. That's right. However, the GO central bank recently stopped the interest rate hike from 0.5 to 0.252. This has raised expectations that the global economy and central banks around the world will end the interest rate hike cycle sooner than expected.
Of course, of course, of course, America The Fed members have different views. Just because Australia has narrowed its interest rate hikes doesn't mean the US will follow suit. But this is a dot plot chart showing the Fed members' forecasts for future interest rates. Interest rates will reach a peak around 4.75 in 2023, with some fluctuations, just before 5%, and the board members themselves are predicting that the terminal rate will reach that peak.
And the FF rate will continue to fall in 2024 and 2025, meaning that 2023 may be the next peak. The peak is in sight. Perhaps in anticipation of this, or perhaps because the stock is undervalued, it could be both. But as the stock price of SOXL falls, the trading volume increases more and more. Of course, there is some panic selling, but even if there is selling, it wo n't happen if there are no buyers.
The fact that so many transactions are being completed indicates that there is a movement to buy in at the bottom, that there are many people who are buying because it is cheap, or buying in preparation for future bombing. And then there is... Is it inflation? It will subside someday. But everyone's common wish is that inflation subsides as soon as possible, isn't it?
This is the year-on-year change in the US Core Pi Consumer Price Index. It has been said that it has been moving south, but what do you think? The previous figures have jumped quite a bit, exceeding 6 percent compared to the previous year. Now, what will the results for October 13th be? Of course, they are not yet out as of the time of creating this video.
However, if the October figures are what they are, and this detailed year-on-year change in Pi moves south, it will be one big piece of evidence that inflation has peaked. When that happens, the stock market will roll up significantly, and this is something to look forward to. And within that, the stock market as a whole will rise, but among them, the explosive power of SOXL, which is a super-growth sector like semiconductors and has 3x leverage, is tremendous.
Remember what happened just recently, during the COVID shock. At that time, semiconductor stocks SOXL also fell to $3.57. At that time, I thought that SFX long was over. No, they said the American economy was finished, the world was ending. But what happened? Well, as you all know, SOXL rose from 3.57 to 74.21, a staggering 1980%, more than 20 times the initial value.
So, even if there is some risk of a decline in the near future, I will keep buying and holding on, because I am confident in its long-term growth. Now, I will show you my favorite slides, my usual four slides. Semiconductor growth shows no signs of slowing down. It is said that by 2050, it will exceed $1 trillion.
In fact, some believe it will exceed that by 2030. The semiconductor market is expanding rapidly, and the number of people using semiconductors is also increasing. The world population is said to be 10 billion in 40 years, and of those 10 billion people, only 3 billion currently have the financial means to use semiconductors, but that number is expected to increase to 7 billion.
By then, semiconductors will be used in everyday life. We may be entering an era where most things contain a reaction mechanism. When that happens, the amount of semiconductors used per person will increase rapidly. In other words, it's no exaggeration to say that demand will increase exponentially.
Furthermore, the stock market is growing overwhelmingly compared to any other asset class, such as bonds, gold, or cash. Stocks have grown 700,000 times in their 220-year history. That means if you had invested $1 220 years ago, it would now be worth over $700,000. That's why I stay in the US stock market and keep betting on it.
And you should n't run away from the market. Why? Because even when people say the stock market is going down and crashing, there's a big surprise. Look at this green line. This green line usually appears during major crashes. This green vertical line is the day when stocks suddenly surged. Just because it's crashing doesn't mean you should take advantage of everyone who isn't in the market on that day.
If you take advantage of everyone, you'll miss out on more and more returns compared to institutional investing. The more days you spend away from the market, the more your stock market returns will decrease dramatically. In fact, according to a British study, which is very well-known, the people who make the most money are those who hold onto their assets without buying or selling them.
This is data from a very wealthy study. But even so, SOXL's volatility is intense. It's as volatile as a typhoon. That's because it's an ETF that invests in a specific sector, semiconductors, and it also moves three times faster than its daily price fluctuations. It's only natural that the volatility is high, which is why I repeatedly say that dollar-cost averaging is the basic strategy.
With dollar-cost averaging, you can buy more when the price is low. So, is SOXL's price movement volatile or calm? It's volatile, is n't it? If so, there will be many shooting phases, which means that the volatile SOXL and dollar-cost averaging, which allows you to buy more when the price is low, are a perfect match.
I hear some people saying, "Can you really make money by investing in regular contributions?" But you can make money by investing in regular contributions, and you can aim for solid returns. Even with this much of a crash, if you had continued to invest $100 in Soxl for 10 years, it would have increased 3.77 times.
If, by any means, there is a chance that the market will recover its highs again, I am confident that I will be there. If it were to surpass these highs, it would be an incredible return, 3.77 times, which is almost laughable. That's why, that's why, that's why I will continue to invest in Soxl. So, what will you do?
Okay, that was a great session. I think many people have lost faith in Soxl investment. I hope that this has given those people a strong desire to take on the challenge themselves. I think there are times in life when you have to take risks. For me, now might be that time. But right now, in this modern society, there is a very powerful weapon, a convenient tool called Soxl, to take risks and win those risks.
We are fortunate to have such an investment environment, so I can say that we are blessed. Therefore, I will continue to invest in the long term, long term, long term, long term, long term, in the competition, up and down, in the long term, long term, long term, long term, long term, long term, long term, and how to turn S into XL.
To that end, I will continue to face the market every day, respond to the market, and so on. Thank you very much for watching until the end today. In the description of this video, which you have watched up to this point, there is an opportunity to talk with me at a free seminar. Since Sunward Trading has taken part in this seminar, I will paste the URL for both seminars and application in the description of this video, so if you are interested, please take part. Thank you very much for watching until the end today.
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