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엔비디아 주가가 최근 2주간 약 20% 폭락했으나 장기적으로 여전히 유망하다는 주장. 반독점 조사 우려는 근거가 약하다고 반박하며, 2년간 1,000% 이상 상승한 성장성과 90% 데이터센터 GPU 점유율, 75% 매출총이익률을 근거로 제시. 9월은 역사적으로 약세 달이라 단기 변동성은 있으나 장기 투자자는 달러코스트 애버리징으로 대응해야 한다고 강조. 엔비디아 장기 전망은 긍정적으로 유지.
다듬은 글
I've been calling Nvidia the best AI stock to buy now because their chips power the entire AI Revolution from self-driving cars and humanoid robots to large language models and the supercomputers that train them but Nvidia stock has been crashing hard going down 20% in just the last 2 weeks and whenever I see that kind of collapse end for Nvidia stock or are there cover why Nvidia stock is crashing right now I'll share some really important Market data that long-term investors need to understand and of course my latest outlook on Nvidia stock based on everything going on right now there's a lot of ground to cover so let's Dive Right into why Nvidia stock is crashing last week Nvidia had the worst day out of any company ever in the history of the stock market when it went down by 9.5 5% in a single day that means Nvidia lost an insane $279 billion in market cap in a 24-hour period that's more than the entire value of AMD and three times more than all of Intel is worth today ouch and surprising absolutely no one my recent video covering nvidia's latest earnings call got flooded with concerns and criticism on YouTube and on Twitter the truth is you're right to be concerned after such a sharp Decline and it's my privilege to be the go-to guy diey for all things in video stock so I did a little digging and I found two important things that are worth talking about the first is a legal issue so keep in mind that I'm not a lawyer or an expert in Anti-Trust laws in any way I'll give you the facts first and then I'll share my opinions separately that way we can keep things straight a recent Bloomberg article reported that because Nvidia has such a dominant position in the AI chip Market the US Department of Justice sent subpoenas to Nvidia and its Partners seeking evidence of anti trust law violations which are the laws that protect markets from monopolies and consumers from unfair business practices these requests bring the government one step closer to launching a formal complaint against Nvidia over concerns that they're making it harder to switch to other chip suppliers and penalizing buyers that don't exclusively use their AI chips part of the probe also focuses on nvidia's acquisition of run AI which makes software for managing AI Computing since that might make it more difficult for customers to switch away from nvidia's Hardware Regulators are also inquiring whether Nvidia gives preferential Supply and pricing to customers who use their technology exclusively or by complete systems Nvidia responded by saying that their market dominance stems from the quality and performance of their products quote Nvidia wins on Merit as reflected in our Benchmark results and value to customers who can choose whatever solution is best for them the success of nvidia's gpus along with rival chip makers struggling to provide alternative chips has made Nvidia a crucial part of the supply chain for some of the biggest companies on Earth Microsoft and meta platforms spend more than 40% of their Hardware budgets on nvidia's Solutions and the h100s were going for as much as $90,000 a piece during the peak of the shortages for nvidia's h100 chips there are also broader regulatory questions about nvidia's practices access to AI capabilities have become a key Focus for government around the world becoming more and more vital to economic strength and National Security oh yeah and as of this recording Nvidia denies having been subpoenaed at all which prompted blomberg to publish a new article and clarify what they actually meant whoops all right so those are the facts as they stand right now here's my personal opinion on them overall I actually think this is great news yeah let me explain I've made almost 50 videos covering Nvidia and I always mention the same few things nvidia's massive 90% share of the data center GPU Market their Skyhigh 75% gross margins and their quickly expanding total addressable Market as more kinds of companies adopt accelerated Computing as a result Nvidia stock is up by over 1,000% in the last 2 years and up by over 100% year-to date even after this latest drop given those insane stats it would be pretty crazy if the justice department didn't look into Nvidia in fact every shareholder should want this this to happen if something shady is going on we want to know about it and if nothing shady is going on we want to know that too so let's pretend that Nvidia did get subpoena that an official doj investigation is underway and let's address everyone's concerns by walking through blomberg's main data points one by one and speaking of data and if you're getting lots of too that's why I decided to reviewed over 38,000 listings for me so far and everything that they've done I just got my sixth report and delete me found hundreds of pieces of my personal information across 40 27 separate data Brokers not just my name and address but my mom's and my fiance' my information and I get my own privacy advise a big here's a fun fact it's not illegal to be a natural monopoly like when you have trademarks or patents an example of a natural monopoly is asml the company that designs the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines used by tsmc to make nvidia's chips what's actually illegal is using your power in a specific Market to stifle competition and hurt conser consumers through things like exclusive dealing predatory pricing price discrimination and so on for example Google paid Apple 20 billion in 2022 alone to be Safari's default search engine and over $50 billion in traffic acquisition costs in the last 12 months so it can be argued that Google's 90% market share in search is due to the depth of its Pockets not the quality of its service in fact that's what's being argued in the antitrust case against Google right now which they're currently losing now let's talk about Nvidia according to the Bloomberg article the doj is investigating three antitrust Claims One Nvidia is making it harder to switch to other chip suppliers two Nvidia gives preferential Supply and pricing to customers who use their technology exclusively or buy their complete systems and three Nvidia penalizes buyers that don't exclusively use their AI chips all three of these claims are great examples of illegal monopolistic Behavior and in my opinion all three will end up being dismissed because Nvidia can easily prove that's not what's going on first Nvidia isn't making it harder for data center operators to switch to other chip suppliers Big Data Centers are already giant portfolios of hardware and software from a wide variety of vendors most of which I cover right here on this channel Microsoft Azure Google cloud and Amazon web services all make their own AI chips for training and inference and they all have long-standing Partnerships with MD and Intel both of which also make their own AI chips that accounts for 45% of nvidia's data center Revenue right there the other 55% comes from internet service providers large companies running internal data centers or supercomputers and governments investing in Sovereign AI just for the sake of argument let's say all of these kinds of customers pick one and only one Hardware ecosystem kind of like how we pick between iPhones and Androids today Apple doesn't have an unfair Monopoly just because they're the only company that makes iOS devices since consumers are free to choose an alternative but if you do switch from iPhone to Android you lose out on Apple's App Store and their Integrations with other Apple devices even if certain Android phones are meaningfully more powerful consumers still may choose not to leave Apple's ecosystem the same is true for NVIDIA Nvidia isn't behaving in a way that makes it hard for their customers to switch to other chip suppliers it's hard to switch because doing so means giving up nvidia's Hardware stack their entire Cuda ecosystem their acceleration libraries software packages and their massive network of developers by the same token Nvidia also doesn't give preferential Supply or pricing to customers who use their technology exclusively or by their complete systems what they actually do is bundle products and services to encourage more sales add incentives for bulk orders and offer value added services to help their customers get the most out of nvidia's hardware and software all of which are normal business practices that consumers encounter every single day the claim that Nvidia penalizes buyers that don't exclusively use their AI chips doesn't make any sense either Jensen Wong said that he prioritizes customers who can use nvidia's products in ready to go data centers as soon as he provides them that policy is designed to speed up AI adoption and prevent GPU stockpiling at a time where demand far exceeds Supply if a potential customer has a data center that's largely incompatible with nvidia's chips it's harder to get them up and running but Nvidia is actually coming out with solutions to help with that too like their Spectrum X ethernet networking products which help ethernet-based data centers leverage nvidia's technology without forcing them to use infiniband all right I spent a lot of time covering the antitrust Probe on Nvidia Point by point because that's what shareholders are probably worried about the most but that's not the only reason that Nvidia stock dropped by almost 20% and this is the data that long-term investors really need to understand September is by far the worst month of the year for the stock market it's the only month where the Dow Jones Industrial Average the S&P 500 the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 all post a net decline for the month and their biggest overall declines for the year on average and over the last four septembers the S&P 500 has fallen by 3.9% 4.8% 99.3% and 4.9% respectively on top of that the US economy is starting to show some signs of stress and institutional investors are worried that could make companies think twice before investing in AI which they view as a promising but risky and unproven technology that means investors watching this channel have a huge leg up on the rest of the market right now because you already understand that AI infrastructure gives companies massive Returns on their investment whether or not they're used it for AI since accelerated Computing gives data centers up to 25 times lower compute costs or 84 times better Energy Efficiency over traditional cpub based servers every company that runs servers wants in on this massive leap in compute power and efficiency because it lowers their costs outright or it lets them do way more for the same amount of money and now we've come full circle because that's the exact same reason that Nvidia has a 90% share of the data center GPU Market in the first place that's why they have 75% gross margins and why their stock is up by over 1,000% in the last 2 years and over 100% year-to date even after this latest drop and as long as Nvidia acts inside the law the answer to that incredible performance isn't for the government to break them up it's for new chipmakers and AI companies to compete nvidia's margins away in a fair and free market whether that's amd's gpus broadcom's as6 or a new chip entirely all of which I'll be covering right here on this channel and So based on everything I just covered here's my latest outlook on Nvidia stock here's my updated outlook on Nvidia stock I hate to disappoint all the Bears out there but everything I said in my recent video covering nvidia's latest earnings call and their long-term growth is still true and just to be clear this isn't a day trading channel so long-term means more than 6 days and if you look at nvidia's price chart over the long term you'll see that a 20% draw down is nothing new I shared this chart in a recent video but it applies even more today also I made this before nvidia's 10 for one stock split so just pretend the price says $82.5 instead of 824 if you invested $10,000 in Nvidia when they went public in 1999 it would have grown by 1,000x and be worth over $10 million in 2024 that's a 32% compound annual growth rate for 25 years straight crushing the returns of the S&P 500 and remember even though Nvidia stock is down by over 20% in the last few weeks it's still trading at around $100 per share so you'd actually have around $122 million today if you could hold it that long here's another version of nvidia's price chart but it shows every dip correction and crash that nvidia's ever had until the second quarter of this year the top of this chart is 0% which means nvidia's stock made a new high and is 0% off its peak everything below zero shows how far it's dropped and how long it took to recover and make a new high so Nvidia stock has corrected by 10% or more 31 separate times or once every 10 months on average it's crashed by 20% or more 18 separate times not including this one or the one from last month that's a full-on crash of Nvidia stock every 17 months on average it crashed by over 30% 11 of those times which means that it had to recover by almost 50% to reach a new high all 11 times five of those times it crashed by 50% or more which means it had to double just to break even and it straight up collapsed by 80% twice once during the dotom bubble and again during the financial crisis my point is these two price charts are actually the same chart which means investors can't get the insane returns in the top chart without surviving the volatility of the bottom one and video stock is down by 5% today right as I'm recording this video but don't forget that volatility swings both ways a little over 1 month ago on July 31st Nvidia stock had its Best Day Ever it added a whopping $329 billion in Val value and went up 133% in a single day as a $3 trillion company this is why I dollar cost average into all of my positions over time the lower the stock goes the more I win since I get more shares for my money the higher the stock goes the more I win since I get more money for all the shares I hold and unless I'm somehow day trading or about to retire I shouldn't care about the day to-day price action of my stocks in fact I'm more focused on the stocks I don't yet have enough of that I want to buy at these prices and of course I'll update you right here when I do so stick around and if you want to see the stocks that I've been buying recently
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