저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 한 트레이더가 2018년 10월 31일 장을 복기하며 단기 매매 원칙을 설명하는 내용이다. 핵심은 저품질 종목(DXR)에 자본과 시간을 과도하게 쓰지 말고 고품질 기회에 집중해야 한다는 것이다. 뉴스레터성 종목의 '토식(toxic flow)' 특성상 급등 후 빠르게 되돌림이 나오기 쉬워 포지션 구축이 어렵다고 설명했다. 개별 종목 복기에서는 AMD, 페이스북, 아마존, 넷플릭스, 엔비디아 등 대형 기술주가 장중 개별 재료가 없으면 지수 흐름에 동조하는 '거래 수단'에 가깝다고 보았다. 페이스북은 시간외 거래에서 등락을 단기 매매했다. GE는 프리마켓 움직임이 시가 이후 반전될 것으로 예상했으나 GSL에 집중하느라 놓쳤다고 복기했다. GE 숏 포지션은 1050 부근에서 잡아 되돌림 구간에서 일부 청산했다. ERAR(ARLP 관련 언급)는 VWAP 하회 후 레벨2 반응을 보며 소규모 반응매매를 했고, 18달러 부근 저점 확인 후 되돌림에서 이익 실현했다. 전망에 대한 결론으로, 트레이더는 장 시작 후 시장이 급락하거나 급등할 때 나타나는 대형 종목의 3~5달러 이상 변동을 반응적으로 거래하는 장세라고 설명했다. 다음 날 관심 종목은 강세·약세 상대 흐름을 중심으로 보겠다고 밝혔다. 페이스북은 19~20달러대까지 단기 반등 가능성을 언급했다.
다듬은 글
what's up guys a little review tonight of the trades today like I said to start I mean my goal was to just focus on the best of the best and not really trade everything there was to to trade I had a you know a little bit of a couple I guess a couple days or week worth of you know just trading everything and just really getting off focus and not necessarily that it was bad it's just like I'm doing way too much work when I could just focus on one or two I end up missing all these you know great opportunities and so even today is a great example where I was kind of focused on GSL and I really wanted to nail this trade and my thought process was potentially off of a washout off the open and you know we got that and it started to kind of rebound and then that was it it just stuffed and it peaked out a few times and you know pretty much unwound from there so I spend my time focused today on a low-quality trade we've been talking a lot about that since traders for a cause I really liked the thought process that d4 kind of brought to the table as far as you know what type of stocks are you trading and I've kind of put that into what I do and kind of rate what kind of stocks things are if it's a low-quality play such as DXR then there's no reason why I should be committing one a lot of capital to a lot of time and in three putting a lot of conviction in the fact that you know it should go higher it can go 10 to 12 or whatever you know what 9 out of 10 or 99 out of 100 are actually going to not do the whole squeeze thing they're not going to do the whole black swan type moves and so if you focus and put a lot of energy towards these types of plays then you're going to be wasting your time and missing out on a lot of other great trades so the point here is you know DXR today i had some great trades a little bit of a chase just into this move here got some in there between before sevens and a little bit more but then I have rules a newsletter came and I actually thought they were done typically they they're done by 11:00 a.m.
but they ended up getting in there so you know the first move was a nice nice jump and they ended up holding and looking to add so when they're looking to add things stay strong because they didn't just flip it right back so and this is a newsletter that typically holds you know on average maybe two to four minutes so whatever that happens I call it toxic flow I call it a toxic type of newsletter flow there are other newsletters that are non toxic in the sense that later on in the Dave and I made mention of a newsletter that came in but I even use those words and I said it's not typically a toxic newsletter meaning they don't just flip right back to there to all those that chase the entries and so I you know use that and I actually just traded it naturally as as I saw fit and what I mean by that is I don't just go ahead and smoke the bids out as soon as the newsletter comes in so there is a decent couple little trades on this it was very very difficult though to build any type of position or any conviction just because number one there's there's no reason for it to really run they need to raise some money they're ready to go it could happen at any time so right there that does create a great short thesis so if the trend does hold then there's definitely gonna be some shorts to squeeze out but you know what's what's aggravating is a move like this or it starts to break out and then you know you do everything right and you sell some in the ramps and then just you know washes out of buck-buck 30 on you and it's just it's annoying and you don't really get that with a more natural trade or a higher quality trade because higher quality trades carry real real money volume real action and it's not just kind of based on a newsletter or two so at any rate great trade great action basically traded the washout at the ramp to wash out the ramp a little bit in here I ended up taking it off and then I traded it again into the clothes there so that was good Andy this was a reactive trade basically the same thing that I said yesterday when a market is in freefall or when it's you know breaking out and it's got three four five hundred points of range on a regular basis AMD Facebook's and Apple's Amazon's Netflix you name it Nvidia they are no longer you know they're their own trader their own you know unless they have news or unless they have earnings that day they might have a little bit of a different type of trend but for the most part in my opinion they're just trading vehicles based off of a spot and if you go back and look at the trades the last couple days I mean they're pretty much in sync for the most most most of the part most of the day there are some for example like Twitter that might have some type of relative strength like yesterday I had a little bit of relative strength as the markets coming in sure it pulled back but for the most part it held its gains and as you saw it extended those gains today so those are the types of things I look for but like I explained yesterday on the video and D was a washout type of play off the open for me so I went ahead and bought the washout and it ended up being a decent trade for me and of course you know it would have been nice to get back in there I think the only times that I probably would have got back in here is after I went back under V WAP I mean overview up and started to hold or over here late day after 2:00 2:30 where it started to trend up so we're gonna have some more good action here I think that Facebook given a lift we maybe maybe we'll see 18 1850s or even higher I mean I don't really see any reason why this thing can't go back up towards the 19's and 20s at least in the short term squeeze out some of the shorts that got a little bit aggressive and then maybe come back towards the the 17s here in a short while so that was that ge ge offered a great trade obviously major volume 344 million this is an example of me using you know my time watching a low-quality trade for the rebound when I should have been watching in a very high quality opportunity such as GE my thought process was whatever it did in the pre-market it was going to reverse into the open so you know this would have been a perfect trade and you know it it was missed because of the GSL I was watching it waiting waiting waiting waiting so either way nice little unwind and I ended up getting short into the 1050 range in this area right over here so I kind of chased it down and I was I was hoping for rebounds and I was basically gonna use this little peak here that I put it in the top at 10 70s 1075 I was gonna use that as a potential ad ad ad until it unwound so I was expecting a move like this right over here and I was hoping to kind of slowly put some on and then fade it but I didn't get into really any any good size they got 10 50s and it went down to about 10 10 and then it came back up here so I didn't want to get it caught and a reversal so I went ahead and just took it off and I said I'll wait till it resets back up I ended up leaning on it a few more times but you know nothing to nothing at home about but other than that era AR LP I had this one hit scan nice little unwinder scan you can see that there was a view op cellar throughout the day so it started to fade off and I went ahead and just started to lean on it and you know this was just a reactive trade based on what I saw so as it was pulling back and I ended up joining just to kind of get a feel in there see how it how it reacted and whatnot see if it was jumpy see if it rebounded and I like the way that it stuffed you know faded off and stuffed right into this level so I went ahead and added added added and this is all based off of kind of I guess a little bit of an intuition based on what I saw based on how the level two looked based on how it reacted so when it came back up and it stuffed and it kept on you know trying to rebound and fail fail fail fail so I was basically anticipating that it was gonna wash out under 18 so I was thinking in my mind 1770s 1750s as a possibility so you can see I was kind of prepared for that and covered into the washout I probably would have been all covered here I was actually I went to 1717 just about maybe a millisecond too late and then it swiped back up and I said you know what I'm happy with this trade I had already seen a nice swipe back up towards you know that maybe 40 50 cents up so I said you know this is this is good oh it was a was a trend join in the first place and I didn't want to get caught in a reversal I took advantage of the potential of the 18 the whole number washout and then that was it I was just you know hit and quit and leave the trade so yeah there's a little bit more but the only other thing I would point out here is just this reversal set up and you can see rebound starts to pull back hold to higher low higher low and then it breaks the prior top so this is a nice little setup and this is what I kind of look for same thing with GE and all that kind of stuff where you know you don't want to try to catch the bottom sure you can into washouts and you know sometimes that works but occasionally these are the types that are gonna you know take of all your money but this is what I look for higher lows and then look forward to break that prior top so this is something I might anticipate small and then add into the winter but as you can tell nice little rebound but I not partake in that and then other than that Facebook I just traded some after-hours I like the action this thing is just crazy I mean the the range is unbelievable but I shorted some before the close and then I just covered before the close so that's what those are pretty much a scratch trade and I was driving home and you know they came out and I got back to my computer and I I had kind of a plan that if it washed out on the on the news I was planning on playing it long just because it's it's obviously been beat down and and whether or not that's a good game plan or whatnot you know who knows but my thought process was a washout I wanted to be long and this wasn't a sighs trade I mean it added up because I ended up nailing it pretty well but it wasn't a size type trade and there was three entries here there's there's two little arrows here but um started in added added a little bit more took some off took some off took some more off I got short covered some got short and so I ended up having I think it was a 149 either 20 or 149 40 average overall short and I was down about a buck here so again I wasn't sighs but I also had just made a bunch of points on the way up so you know buck verse I don't even know what this was 141 to 146 so first five six bucks a buck is you know no big deal but anyway so I let it kind of ramp out and stuff slam down and then there their conference call was starting at 5 5 p.m.
so that was another reason why I didn't want to be sighs because as you guys know on these these calls especially last earnings I mean this thing just it had pulled back 10 and then it just did another 10 or $15 and I know a lot of people got smoked and so whatever I do trade after hours it's never a ton of Sighs just in case you know you never know so I had the 149 2149 40s a ver egde and then a cracked so right away I want to go ahead and lock some in so I miss that little washout but I made about four dollars a share there I made about six or so and then maybe about seven or eight on this so ended up being a great trade and then it cracked him rally back and you know this is exactly why I don't trade any ridiculous sighs after hours but overall fun trade good trade and you know that was that was that so goal for tomorrow will be just to really focus in on some of these runners that happen today and just kind of look for the relative weakness or relative strength for some of its peers we've got a lot of action across the board and it's really a traders market right now so you know a lot of times I like to look for the big picture moves from you know the beginning of the day to the end of the day but you know a lot of times is those be shaped recoveries and I was talking about it yesterday with Tesla where you know you you get that even today you know we're finally unwinds then it just comes all the way back up but more importantly yesterday where it's a little bit more likely to trade it but you know it finally washes out comes all the way back then it finally washes out comes all the way back so it's just that type of market that you're in that you have to be aware of and that's that so we'll catch you in the room tomorrow if you have any questions as always reach out I will be doing a webinar tomorrow a little bit after 8 p.m.
because it's Halloween so I just want to give myself a little bit of a buffer but like I said a pitcher in the rooms leave a comment if you have questions and I am here to
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