저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
뮌거는 종목 가치평가가 기계적 공식이 아니라 여러 기법과 경험을 조합하는 게임이며, 능력범위 밖의 것은 피해야 한다고 강조한다. 농장 비유로 자산 가치를 현금흐름 수익률과 할인율로 계산하는 방식을 설명한다. 버크셔 후계자 선정 방식과 대규모 자금 운용의 어려움(수익률 역설)을 언급하며, 리스크를 미리 인식하는 사람이 드물다고 말한다. 이 영상은 개별 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 예측을 포함하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
we've never had any system for being able to make correct judgments on the values of all businesses we throw almost all decisions into the too hard pile and we just sift for a few decisions we can make that are easy and uh that's a comparative process and and if if you're if you're looking for an ability to correctly value all Investments at all times we can't help you no we know how to step over one foot bars we don't know how to jump over seven foot bars but we do know how to recognize occasionally what is a one foot bar yeah and and we know enough to stay away from the seven foot bars too when you're trying to determine something like intrinsic value and margin of safety and so on there is no one easy method that could be simply mechanically applied by say a computer and make anybody who could punch the buttons Rich by definition this is going to be a game which you play with multiple techniques and multiple models and a lot of experience is very helpful I don't think you can become a great investor very rapidly anymore than you could become a great bone tumor pathologist very rapidly it takes some experience and that's why it's helpful to get a very early start um but if you're if let's just say that we we all decided we're going to buy a or think about buying a farm and we go up 30 miles north of here and we find out that a farm up there can produce 120 bushels of corn and it can produce 45 bushels of soybean per acre we know what fertilizer costs and we know what the property taxes cost and we know what we'll have to pay the farmer to actually do the work involved and we'll get some number that we can make per acre using fairly conservative assumptions and if you let's just assume that when you get through making those calculations it turns out to be that you can make $70 an acre to the owner without working at it then the question is how much do you pay for the $70 do you assume that agriculture will get a little bit better over the years so that your yields will be a little higher do you assume that prices will work a little higher over time they haven't done much of that although recently it's been good with corn and soybeans but over the years AG culture prices have not done too much so you you would be conservative in your sub and you might decide that for $70 an acre you know you would want to if you decided you wanted a 7% return you'd pay $1,000 an acre now if Farmland is selling for 900 you know you're going to have a Buy Signal and if it's selling for 1,200 you're going to look at something else that's what we do in businesses we are trying to figure out what those corporate for Farms that we're looking look at are going to produce and to do that we have to understand their competitive position we have to understand the the Dynamics of the business we have to you know we have to be able to look out in the future and like I've said earlier some businesses you can't look out very far at but the the mathematics of investment were set out by ESOP 600 BC and he said a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush now our question is when do we get the two you know how long do we wait how sure are we that there are two in the bush could there be more you know what's the right discount rate and we measure one against the other that way I mean we are looking at a whole bunch of businesses how many birds are they going to give us one are they're going to give them to us and we try to decide which ones you know basically which which uh Which bushes we want to buy out in the future it's all about and and it's all about evaluating fure future future ability to distribute cash or to reinvest cash at high rates if it isn't distributed Berkshire is never distributed any cash but it's growing in its cash producing abilities and we retain it because we think we can create more than a dollar present value by retaining it but it's the ability to distribute cash that give Berkshire its value and we try to increase that ability to distribute cash year by year by year and then we try to keep it and invest it in a way so there a dollar bill is worth more than a dollar uh you may have an insight into very few businesses I mean if we left here and walk by a McDonald's stand you know and you decided would you pay a million dollars for that McDonald's stand or a million3 or 900,000 you'd think about how likely it was there would be more competition how whether McDonald's could change the franchise Arrangement on you whether people are going to keep eating hamburgers you know all kinds of things and you actually would say to yourself This McDonald Stan will make X X Plus 5% maybe in a couple years because over time uh prices will increase a little and that's that's all investing is but the you have to know when you know what you're doing and you have to know when you're getting outside of what I call your circle of competence and you don't have the faintest idea you stated that you're looking for someone younger to possibly work at Berkshire and I was wondering if you could expand on that um and how would I apply for the job I think you just did the uh we're looking for we're looking for one or more I mean I would I don't think it's at all impossible we would might even find as three or four that we would decide to to have run some money and to take a closer look we're not looking for someone to teach I I probably didn't make that clear enough in the annual report we're not we're not going to be mentors or teachers or anything of the sort we're looking for somebody that we think knows how to do it and there are people like that out there we've heard from six or 700 uh I did hear I heard from one that had a four-year-old son uh I thought that was quite a compliment that they thought I mean I knew a caveman old son uh I thought that was quite a compliment that they thought I mean I knew a caveman could do my job but a four-year-old the uh but we are looking and and we have heard from a number of very intelligent people we have heard from a number of people that have had good investment records for in recent years and in some case sometime the biggest problem we have is whether they would scale up because it's a it's a different it's a different job to run a 100 billion than it is to run 100 million and incidentally and you can't do as well running a 100 billion as 100 million in in terms of returns you can't come close to doing it that doesn't bother us uh but we do want to find somebody that we think can run large sums of money mildly better than uh the general performance and securities and I emphasize mildly there's no way in the world somebody's going to beat the S&P by 10 percentage points a year with a hundred billion dollars it isn't going to happen but we think maybe we we can find somebody or some some group several of them that can maybe be a couple percentage points better but we really are interested in being sure that we have somebody that under conditions that people haven't even seen yet will not blow it at uh um you know anything times zero is zero and I don't care how many wonderful figures are in between so we are looking for somebody that's wired in a way that they see risks that other people don't see that haven't occurred and they're plenty cognizant of the risks that have occurred and those people are fairly rare Charlie and I have seen a lot of very smart people uh go broke and uh or end up with very mediocre records where you know 99 out of the hundred things they did were intelligent but the hundred did them in so our job is to filter through these hundreds and hundreds of applications find a couple of them that we think can do the job who are much younger perhaps give them a chunk two three five billion have them manage it for some time have them manage it in the kind of Securities that they they would scale up to a larger portfolio because and then uh uh either one or more of them will get the job turned over over to him at some point Charlie yeah our situation and looking for this help reminds me of an apocryphal tale about Mozart and uh young man of 25 or so once asked to see Mozart and he said I'm thinking of starting to write symphon Symphonies and I'd like to get your advice and Mozart said well you're too young to write Symphonies and the guy says but you were writing them when you were 10 years old and Mozart says yes he says but I wasn't asking anybody else for advice how to do it and so if you remind yourself of Young Mozart well you're the man for us we will we will come up with probably a couple of people and uh uh you know it it's it's uh I've known people over the years uh I've been in the job before I mean in 1969 I wound up my partnership and I had a lot of people that trusted me and I wasn't going to just mail the money back to them uh and you know say goodbye because they they would have been sort of a drift most of them and so I had the job of finding somebody to replace me and there were three absolutely standout candidates any one of the three would have been a great choice Choice Charlie was one of them Sandy goddman was one of them and Bill Ru was one of them Charlie wasn't interested in having more Partners Sandy was interested in in in individual accounts and took on the accounts of some of my partners and they were very very happy and they're still happy that he did it and Bill Ru set up a separate mutual fund called sequa fund to take care of all of the partners uh whether they had small amounts or not and he did a sensational job so I really identified three people in 1969 that were not only Superior money managers but that were also the kind that could never get you a terrible result and that were terrific stewards of capital now they were about my age at the time so it was a it was a universe that I was familiar with and now I have the problem that at the people I know that are anywhere close to my age we don't want anyway and besides most of them are already rich they don't care about having a job but I have so I have to look into an age cohort where I don't really know lots of people but it can be done and like I say we did it successfully with three people in 1969 and it was done successfully in 1979 with Lou Simpson for Geico and I never knew Lou Simpson before I met him down at the airport here and I spent a few hours with him and it was clear that he was the he was a steward of capital he was going to get an above average result and there was no chance he was going to get a bad result and he's been managing money for Geico now for 28 years roughly so it's it's doable it's a little more work than I like to do I'm I've been kind of spoiled but I I'll uh I've got a job to do on it and I'll do it
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