저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 중간선거 결과로 공화당이 하원을 가져가 여야 교착(그리드락)이 형성되며, 이는 주식시장에 통계적으로 유리하다. [선거 결과와 정치 구도] 상원은 민주당, 하원은 공화당이 장악할 가능성이 높다. 공화당은 조지아 상원 결선투표 등에서 의석을 되찾지 못할 수 있다. [그리드락의 의미] 양당이 나뉘어 있으면 양원을 통과할 법안은 대체로 합의된 소규모 법안뿐이다. 대형 논쟁적 입법이 막히는 상황이다. [주식시장 근거 수치] 10월 초부터 시작되는 중간선거 해의 9개월은 미국 증시 역사상 가장 일관되게 긍정적인 기간이다. 1925년 이후 이 9개월이 마이너스였던 것은 두 번뿐이며, 마지막은 2차대전 시작기였다. 이 기간 연평균 수익률은 약 19.5%다. 유럽 주요 지수에서도 마이너스가 없었다. [심리적 근거] 미국인은 이익보다 손실을 약 2.5배 더 싫어하고, 영국 4배, 독일 6배로 유럽은 손실 회피가 더 강하다. 대형 입법은 세금·재산권·규제를 건드려 누군가는 좋아하고 누군가는 강하게 반대하는데, 반대 쪽의 손실 혐오가 더 커서 교착이 시장에 유리하다. [입법 타이밍] 대통령 당은 임기 초 2년 안에 가장 논쟁적인 법안을 밀어붙인다. 중간선거 이후에는 입법 현실이 차분해지고, 시장은 이미 그 안정을 선반영한다. 이번 해 중간선거 후 약 6.5% 상승이 있었다. [대통령 3년차] 대통령 임기 3년차는 1939년 이후 마이너스가 없었다(1939년 -0.9%, 2차대전 시작기). [결론적 조언] 정치적 선호와 무관하게 투자 측면에서는 교착 국면이 주식 수익률에 긍정적이라는 것이 핵심이다.
다듬은 글
so I get asked every few hours right about now on November 15th what the outcome of the election is and what its impact on markets is and said simply I think everybody knows what's gone on to date with the Senate uh and uh Republicans losing a seat that they may regain in Georgia may not with a runoff that's in December 6 or starting basically now and running through December 6th the House of Representatives is one where the Republicans as I speak are one seat away from taking formal control of the house there's uh currently four seats where the Republicans undecided to see each way the Republicans lead and are in districts where most of the uncounted ballots are in Republican Turf and therefore they'll certainly get over 218 they will get up to 221 there's a few more that could go either way maybe they get a little higher than that but they certainly take control of the house and what that means fundamentally is now you have the Senate controlled by the Democrats Republicans will hold a house that means that the only bills that can make it through both Chambers and go to the president's desk are things that people pretty commonly agree upon and there's not a whole lot of that so they can't be very controversial they can't be too big they can't be too scary and this is what's called hardcore gridlock the president's party has the Senate and presidency and not the house and gridlock's traditionally good for stocks the three quarters nine months that begin with the beginning of October in a midterm election year those nine months are the most consistently positive period in U.S stock market history in fact Global stock market history any way you slice it every which way good times bad times could be a nine month good run in an otherwise bad Market could be the end of a bull market which is what I think happened in October but I could be wrong about that regardless I'm going to say it's the most consistently positive nine months that nine months has only been negative twice in a period we've had good accurate stock market history and going back to 1925 and the last time was as World War II started average annual returns over that nine-month period or not quite 20 19.5 percent not only is that true in the history of major European stock indexes it's never been negative there's a high correlation between U.S and foreign and most Europeans pay a lot of attention to U.S politics the reason that this thing works is pretty simple not well understood and almost No One Believes it but that because almost No One Believes it that's part of why it works is intuitively you know in your bones and a couple of Behavioral psychologists named Richard Taylor and some are bernardsy proved this decades ago the average American hates losses about two and a half times as much as they love gains and big controversial legislation always impacts either taxes or property rights or regulation uh all of them and whoever they help like it but whoever they hinder because to help somebody you got to hinder somebody else they hate it even more they hate it more than the people that like it like it uh and for an American that's about two and a half to one for Europeans that's more than that uh again a very long time ago mayor statman and I documented using the thailer bernardsi methodology exactly the same way and data from Britain and Germany that the average British person hates losses four times as much as the like gains the average German six times as much Europeans overall are just much more loss of hers fact is as we all focus on the power of the politics of the most important economy in the world what that does when there's big legislation is it scarce but the presidents party always knows when they first take office right after the president's inauguration that in the midterms almost always the president's party loses relative power to the opposition party a little or a lot this time hardcore gridlock but because the president party knows that when the president's first elected they know that they have to get whatever is their biggest most controversial legislation through in their first two years because they can't pass it in their first two years they'll never get it passed midterms so they push push push in those first two and for all intents and purposes all big controversy legislation in American history almost perfectly comes in the first two years doesn't come in the back too after the midterms you still get talking yacking rhetoric but legislative reality becomes much calmer markets pre-priced that sometimes before the election sometimes right after this year we've had a good six and a half percent run starting the day after the election uh and Market was up before that during the quarter uh it's a strong run the fact is what the Market's pre-pricing is that quiet that comes from the gridlock that extends over into the first and second quarters of the next year the president's third year in his term we haven't had a negative third year of our president's term since 1939 which was only down nine tenths of one percent as World War II was starting again linked to that one period uh where the what I call midterm Miracle of those nine months was negative so what I want you to see is that the election you may have liked as a Democrat a little bit because it came out better than Democrats expected it to you may have hated as a republican uh because it came out a little worse overall than Republicans hoped it would in fact quite a lot worse they hoped for the Big Red Wave it didn't happen but for the stock market you still get gridlock and that's good for investment returns good for stock market returns and if I were you I would think of it as maybe what I like politically maybe what I dislike politically but what you do like stock market wise ]
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