저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 금리 인상에도 경기침체가 임박했다고 보기 어렵고, 시장이 놓치고 있는 긍정적 펀더멘털이 있다는 주장. 은행 대출 성장: 미국 은행 대출이 금리 인상기에도 견조하게 늘고 있어 침체 신호와 배치된다는 주장. 전통적으로 중앙은행은 예금비용을 올려 대출 수익성을 떨어뜨렸지만, 2020년 지급준비율 제도 폐지 후 은행 예금 대부분이 거의 무이자라 금리 인상이 오히려 대출 수익성을 높인다고 설명. 대출 확대의 부작용: 대출이 늘수록 미래 인플레이션 위험이 커지며, 연준이 인플레이션을 충분히 잡지 못할 수 있다는 점도 인정. 연준에 대한 평가: 연준은 자신이 무엇을 하는지 잘 이해하지 못한다는 기존 비판을 재차 언급하며, 밀턴 프리드먼의 통화량 준칙을 인용. 경기 지표: 실업률이 매우 낮게 유지되고, 여행 수요가 매우 강해 침체 시작 시점의 전형적 패턴과 맞지 않는다고 설명. 인플레이션 전망: 지속되는 인플레이션 문제는 나아지고 있다고 봄(별도 영상 주제로 언급). 종합 리스크: 연준이 향후 경기를 다르게 억제할 가능성은 배제하지 않으나 현재까지의 정책은 목표 달성에 기여하지 않는다는 판단. 침체 공포는 과장되었고, 이는 고용과 기업 수익성 측면에서 긍정적이라는 입장. 자산 관련 직접 방향 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
in this scary period where so many people are so afraid of so many things uh and you know what they all are you read about them all the time uh sometimes people ask me so are there fundamentally good things going on that don't seem to be much noticed and I'd like to point out a few because one of the great fears that we all know floats around the world and heavily concentrated in America and the English-speaking language is that because of the concerns about inflation at high levels the fed and maybe other central banks but led by the Fed in America will keep ratcheting up interest rates until they kneecap the economy and create recession and all the bad things that come with recession people losing their jobs and businesses getting in trouble and all that stuff and I cannot tell you that that's impossible to occur I can tell you there's some positives going on that are inconsistent with them and let me just that people don't seem to pay attention to notice you never read about you don't hear about and let me point out a few of them one of them is that we have no real history of recessions coming anytime soon when loan growth bank loan growth has been robust in the United States during this period where the FED has increased interest rates as you all know the fact is loan growth is actually increased now in traditional theory the way the quantity of money is increased in a fractional Reserve banking system is for the net banking system to increase its outstanding loans that's the actual process that's deployed and so traditionally what the Central Bank did to cut that off was to make lending less profitable by increasing the cost of Banks deposit base such that it wasn't very profitable to make loans they've largely without thinking about it lost mechanism to do that because what they used to do over time was Implement reserve requirements on Banks and they eliminated those in 2020 tied to covet fears and they've not re-implemented them uh the way they used to operate Banks now have most of their deposit base costing them almost nothing and since their deposit base cost them almost nothing as the FED raises rates it actually increases the profitability of Bank Lending motivating the banks to lend more it's a positive in this environment offsetting the concern that I cited earlier of what the FED doing causing recession now there's a counter problem there which is the more that they lend the more that actually contributes to the Future risk of inflation it doesn't solve the inflation problem the way the FED would like it to but you know if you've listened to me over the decade you've heard me say many times I don't think that the FED really understands what it's doing I don't think it's ever really understood much about what it's when I was a boy years and years ago Milton I mean decades ago Milton Friedman would have said did say that Banks a central banks should not try to deal with the economy by fiddling around with interest rates but just grow the quantity of money at a steady state and focus on the growth of the quantity of money not try to predict if this interest rate increase or decrease will do this to the economy and he said then that they would never learn that lesson and they never had but the fact is in my opinion the fact is that with that robust loan growth it makes it very hard to have recession uh there's a lot of other indicators that you can see that are not consistent with that recession concept unemployment's very low remains low usually unemployment starting to rise before you get to recession uh travel is exceptionally robust and growing that's inconsistent with the beginning recession I'm not suggesting that the FED might not figure out in the future how to kneecap the economy differently it might but so far what they've been doing does not contribute to the goal that they want to accomplish and therefore I think while we have this persistent inflation problem which I actually think is getting better and not the topic for a different video the fact is there isn't really much going on to create that recession that so many people fear is here and fundamentally that's good news for people because it's less decimating to people's employment it's less decimating to business profitability it produces the risk of business bankruptcies it's just generally good all the way around ]
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