Peter Lynch's Advice For Investing in 2023

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이 영상은 Joshua Castillo가 CNBC에 나온 Peter Lynch의 2023년 인터뷰 발췌를 소개하며 '잘 아는 것에 투자하라(buy what you know)' 원칙을 설명하는 교육용 해설이다. 핵심 메시지는 개인투자자가 이유를 모른 채 버스·친구·레딧 등에서 들은 종목에 돈을 넣는 것을 경계하라는 것이다. 주가가 올랐다는 것은 좋은 투자 이유가 아니며, 재무제표와 대차대조표를 직접 확인해야 한다고 강조한다. 린치의 사례로 TJX, Stop & Shop, Analog Devices, 엔비디아 등 과거 성장주 발굴 사례가 언급되며, 저평가된 두 기업 중 현금이 많고 부채가 없는 쪽을 고르라는 기준이 제시된다. 해설자는 Sears, K-Mart, IBM 등 시장 변화로 몰락한 기업 사례를 들어 지속적인 추세 점검과 경쟁 상황 모니터링의 필요성을 강조한다. 금융 섹터에 대해 린치는 2008년 위기 이후 은행 규제가 강화되었고 개별 은행 파산은 늘 있는 일이라고 평가하며, 1981년 같은 극심한 경제 위기에 비하면 현재는 나은 편이라는 입장이다. 경기 전망에 대해서는 2차대전 이후 13번의 경기침체와 13번의 회복이 있었으며, 이번 침체는 가장 많이 예측된 침체라는 점을 언급했다. 린치 본인은 미래를 예측할 수 없다고 말한다. 해설자는 항상 걱정거리는 존재하므로 리스크를 인지하되, 안전마진(margin of safety)을 두고 투자하라고 조언한다. 금리 상승(연방기금금리 5% 근접)이 기업의 변동금리 부채 이자 부담을 키울 수 있다는 점도 예로 든다. 마지막으로 초보 투자자에게 린치의 'One Up On Wall Street', 'Learn to Earn' 등 저서와 워런 버핏 인터뷰 시청을 권하며, 계속 배우는 자세를 강조한다.

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01. welcome back ladies and a gentlemen thank you all for joining me today I'm really excited to just kind of bring you a quick video uh Peter Lynch who's one of my favorite value investors you know of all time actually went on CNBC recently and did an interview with them now this is just going to be me going over a clip of it and kind of talking through the mindset and things like that and I feel like you know sometimes people people like Wonder especially when you're learning you haven't read Peter Lynch before like where is this all coming from so I'm hoping that I can kind of diagnose that and give you guys some more info today and maybe just give you a little bit more insight into mindset and kind of what I'm doing as well so if that's something you're interested in make sure to subscribe to the channel we do this kind of stuff all the time here on the channel but with that being said let's Dive Right into today's video come on over to the computer I'm just gonna share screen so you know you can watch it while I do um and you know if you have any questions though outside of what I've kind of addressed let me know down in the comments below and we are now joined by a very special guest can we call him a legend I think we're going to Legendary investor Peter Lynch he's with us from Boston this morning shares perspective on the economy markets and the work he's doing for the Catholic schools Foundation Peter of course is the vice chairman of fidelity management research and Advisory Board member of fidelity that is such a crazy 77 to 19 minutes growing it from you ready for this 20 million dollars to 14 billion dollars in 1990 at the time of his retirement buy what you know is what Peter taught us and it's so nice to see you this morning Peter good to be here so let's talk about buy what you know I'm so curious these days how you're thinking about the economy well I think people they're investing individual stocks it's it's sad they're careful when they buy a refrigerator or an airplane flight they're careful of the money and they'll hear about a stock on the bus and they'll put five or ten thousand dollars on it they have no idea what they do so you really got to be careful look at the company look at the balance sheet what is the reason the stock should be higher the suckers going up is not a good reason is your sense though that the style of investing that you pioneered is still doable and winnable today well I think looking for something different look for something that's a good story I mean who are the guest TJX a local company would have gone up 50-fold or Stop and Shop would go up tenfold or or Analog Devices or Nvidia I couldn't pronounce Nvidia so you have to find a company that's either a turnaround or a company that's going to grow like Panera or you know Family Dollar stores I'm not saying that buys now but that's what's made our you know Sears has rolled over so you know so in Kmart's rolled over IBM slowed down but we've had newcomers come along I mean that's the nature you have to be looking for new companies and look at the balance sheet if you can add five and five and get reasonably close to ten you should be able to look at a balance you say here's two depressed companies they've gone from 50 to three one comes good three of them in cash and no debt one's got three remain in debt no cash which one are you going to buy I mean that not too hard to do yeah it's crazy to me so kind of going back to his first point um one of the things that I think we've seen over the last I mean maybe I've personally seen it a lot is the fact that you actually have you know people will hear about a stock they'll hear about it on Reddit they'll hear about it on the bus they'll hear about it from their friends their family they'll just hear about a stock they'll hear their ticker and they'll you know someone will obviously like talk it up they'll say you know it went up 10 yesterday it's gonna go keep going up because that's what I think that's what I believe that's what they're hoping for that that's really what that's writing on is Hope and speculation but you hear about it and you see like people especially in 21 um you see a lot of people hear about a company they jump right into it and then they lose all their money or they lose a lot of their money and then they they think like you know you know buy the dip buy the dip buy the dip you know only buy the dip that's all we know and so you buy the dip and it goes down and you buy the dip and it goes down and then you buy a dip and it goes it keeps going down um and it becomes frustrating for people because they they don't know what to do because they followed all the rules they followed it by the dip they followed the don't be afraid they follow the you know hold while you're down kind of thing and in reality it's a lot of it comes from the fact that they don't know what they own they don't know what they own and a lot of it you know when you have that happen and you don't know what you own there's a lot of risk in it there's a lot of risk to begin with when you're investing with when you don't know what you own let alone when you do the company itself being risky like you know some of the meme stocks that we've seen come out and things like that so when it comes to that he says buy what you know that's that's that concept really comes from one up on Wall Street and it comes from a couple of others books as well but buy what you know is really saying you know rather than trying to invest in this crazy software company let's say you work in the mining industry and you're you you know you just found stocks the first time rather than investing in software that you have no idea what it does you have no idea how sticky it is you have no idea what the business model is and you're just investing because you hear a name you hear a ticker symbol and you're like that sounds good to me or it's gone up 10 this week it's got to keep going up rather than investing in that way buy what you know so if your circle of competence leaves you at just retail stores there's good retail stores and there's bad retail stores look at the balance sheet look at the financial statements look at the you know 10K 10q to figure out what opportunities are there and that's kind of what he's getting at and that's a lot of what he did was he was driving around to go look at Best Western when it first came out and first um was growing okay Best Western you know it's a hotel chain people have stayed there before you kind of know what it is you can go stay there you can go do it that's kind of the idea behind buy what you know and own what you know um and the thing is too is that the other last point that he kind of makes is you need to make sure that when you're investing in companies you're keeping a watchful eye over the trends and kind of the things that change throughout the year because again you have a company like Sears Sears dominated retail it dominated um everything in its space at that time Amazon comes along e-commerce comes along uh cheaper big box stores come along all of a sudden Sears is going under and out of business so that is part of it too you have that market cycle where businesses that you know or fundamentally sound at one point may not be fundamentally sound anymore so you can't just assume that every company that you own is going to stay forever and that's part of it too is you need to make sure paying attention you're watching the trends you're keeping up with the competitors you're making sure that you know you have these eggs in your basket you have this like little basket right here and you're watching over it you can't just like look off to the side or go looking for other eggs and leave your eggs unattended it's kind of the best way to think about it but I I really think that Peter Lynch really hits on the point every single time he talks you can go through like all his old interviews from like years decades ago and he hits on like the exact same points Peter I watch watch you closely because I was in the business back then and I don't do you remember how many snls went from mutuals to stock trade that you made just Bookoo bucks on back then I mean I don't know if you I don't know if you missed any of those and they were all big Winners they're all big Winners they were all big Winners back then I just what do you think of the financial sector right now and what happened we saw with First Republic and uh I I just like to get your Insight there since you you were so good at that sector you know we hear a terrible financial crisis and 99-1 I think every almost every major Bank in Texas went under Bank of New England one of the oldest banks in the country went under it's like you know you know in 0809 the banks were doing these no dark loans and second mortgages and Home Improvement loans that people are buying boats with it now the bank's being much more careful so we've gone through other crises some banks will go under you know 400 100 after 0809 now we have stress tests I think the banking system has improved there'll be some companies going there that's the that's the nature of it you know it's nothing like imagine 1981 with double digit inflation teleportation unemployment and people were the Japanese were going to take over the world I mean we were hopeless I mean you know there's always something to worry about I'd really been my over 50 years of doing this thank you I think I'd be worried if there was you know somebody didn't bring up something to worry about that's well you naturally business I I was joking because I'm a Reagan guy you know and I was there I started it at Merrell in 1981.

02. so I remember I remember what happened I remember my feelings in 1981 and I remember my feelings how I felt by 1995 and you had a Tailwind I had a Tailwind because of what we did we're not going to do that again we're not going to cut taxes we're not going to stimulate the private sector we're kind of headed the other way did you have a Tailwind will we ever have a Tailwind again with this generation well we've had 13 recessions since World War II and we've had 13 recoveries maybe we're going to have one if this is a recession it's probably the most predicted one ever you know I never know when we're gonna go I'd love to know the future I think I'd give it would help I'd be a better investor I'd pay five extra dollars for next year's Wall Street Journal it would really help I cannot predict the future but this one this recession is so expected so predicted maybe it's coming I don't know so it's crazy to me and that's kind of just the end of that clip but there is like an 11 minute if you go on the CNBC Pro um piece but really the final thing that I kind of want to mention for you as kind of The Listener is you heard him say um you know there's always something to worry about there really is always something to worry about and you know whether it's macro whether it's micro in your industry whether it's you know the specific company doing this or chat GPT or AI or like insert buzzword from The Last Five Years here kind of thing there's always something to worry about now it's not that you don't care about the macro it's not that you don't care about these you know Trends and Dynamics happening it's more so the fact that you're never ever ever going to get something that's just a complete layup and that doesn't have like some form of risk so you have to take into consideration there's risk in this you know business model there's risk in this fundamentals of this company money what is that risk what could happen but you have to you know be aware of what could happen and part of the things that will happen is you'll have you know up Cycles down Cycles you'll have you know up and downs in different markets you'll have real estate going up and down you'll have rates changing all of these things impact you know just the General market not just stocks not just you know equities in general it'll impact the General market so you're looking at something like the FED fund rate it's gonna hit you know five percent today because I'm recording this on the May 3rd 2023 you know if you look at it it's probably going to hit five percent which it hasn't hit five percent in like a decade and a half almost so when you see this happen you have to ask yourself you know how exposed is my company if you look at like the FED fund rate we could go in that example if my company is taking out variable interest rate debt and the rate keeps going up their interest expense is going to keep going up now if they have fixed rates at a really low rate and the Fed rate goes up and they're not issuing a bunch more debt and they're just going to continue running their company they may see a Slowdown but you're not going to come crumbling down necessarily now that's not to say that the equity price won't come down so that's part of it too where you don't know what's going to happen in the future and that's why if you invest with the margin of safety like we talk about with Ben Graham and Warren Buffett if you invest with the margin of safety in your Investments there's a little bit of wiggle room that you can play with now rather than being stuck with you know I invested out what I thought was exactly fair value the market went down because rates went up all of a sudden you know the unknown became known kind of thing so that's part of it and that's part of investing but you have to just kind of you know feel your way through it and kind of learn and read about the history so that way you're not doomed to make the same mistakes that others have made in the past and that's kind of what I've been doing is just reading and trying to read up on different Trends trying to read up on different Industries trying to read up on the value investors super investors and people you know who are do and don't disagree with and that's kind of what I've been doing recently I've actually been reading Howard marks uh Master the market Cycles uh book as well as chip Wars from Chris Miller so I'm learning about Industries I'm learning about other people's knowledge and kind of gaining that and I think that you should do that too so that's why I'm hoping that this video I hope you find it helpful and that you actually are going to be able to take something out of this and I think that if you haven't already like if you're just new to investing you're just finding me you're just finding investing in general you're just looking at a stock market investing on you YouTube I think you should go on YouTube look up Warren Buffett's old interviews look up Peter Lynch's old interviews it I think Peter Lynch is probably a little bit more approachable from a new person perspective so look up one on one up on Wall Street look up Learn to Earn by Peter Lynch he does a great job explaining a lot of the concepts that everyone else kind of talks about but he does it I feel like in a simpler Manner and it's a very you know easy to understand because again the way that he invested was buy what you own he didn't care about the next AI stock he didn't care about the teraflops on a you know old CPU or anything that is what he has said before so make sure you buy what you own learn about the markets learn about what other people have done mistakes in the past either mistakes or wins really in the past and what people are looking for as far as like Warren Buffett maybe uh Charlie Munger and people like that and that you know General group of people what they are looking for when they're looking for companies and honestly again I think a lot of it's learning so you got to continue to learn even if you have had a winner if you've had something go up a ton of a ton of percent you still got to continue learning and continue to build on that knowledge so with that being said though thank you all for joining me today I hope this was really informative let me know what you think about this style of video and also as far as the audio goes um let me know keep you know keep letting me know about the You Know audio experience as well so with that being said thank you all for joining me today and have a great day and happy investing