저자: JoshuaCastillo · 외국인
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넷플릭스 1분기 실적 발표 후 주가가 시간외에서 약 25% 급락한 상황을 분석하며, 가입자 순증 부진과 계정 공유 문제를 핵심 악재로 제시함. 실적 요약: 매출 약 80억 달러(전년 대비 약 10% 성장), 영업이익 약 20억 달러(영업이익률 25%), 순이익 약 15억 달러, 희석 EPS 3.53달러로 추정치를 소폭 상회. 가입자 부진: 유료 가입자 수 2억 2,164만 명(전년 대비 6% 성장)이나 순증은 -20만 명으로 기존 가이던스(+250만~400만 명)를 크게 하회. 러시아 서비스 중단 영향이 약 70만 명이며, 이를 제외하면 실질 순증은 약 50만 명 수준. 성장 둔화 요인: 코로나 기간 수요 선반영, 계정 공유 확산(약 1억 가구 이상이 공유 계정 사용), 선형TV·유튜브·아마존·훌루 등과의 경쟁, 경기 둔화와 인플레이션, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 등 거시 리스크. 계정 공유 유료화(라틴아메리카 3개국 시범 도입)를 중단기 기회로 제시. 주가 전망: 시가총액이 약 1,510억 달러에서 25% 하락 시 약 1,130억 달러, 추가 하락 시 100억 달러 이하 가능성 언급. 52주 고점 700달러 대비 약 60~65% 하락, 다음 날 시가 258달러 부근으로 예상. 이익 대비 밸류에이션(PER 약 20 수준)이 낮아져 기회가 될 수 있다는 관점이나 명확한 매수 권유는 없음. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 넷플릭스가 생활 속에서 더 고착화(sticky)될 것으로 보며, 자체 제작 콘텐츠 중심 전략이 유효하다고 평가. 이익 감소 가능성 및 현금흐름 투자 방향을 지속 관찰할 필요 언급. 빌 애크먼의 매수 가능성을 언급하나 본인의 직접 추천은 아님. 리스크: 계정 공유 단속 시 단기 이탈 가능성, 구독 해지율(넷플릭스 약 2.4%로 경쟁사 대비 낮음) 추이 관찰 필요, 경쟁 심화에 따른 장기 성장 둔화 우려.
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all right y'all welcome back thank you all for joining in if you didn't see today if you're not part of the market or if you're just getting home today um just what's on the screen right now um i don't have the ticker just quite yet but let me just zoom out a tiny bit uh netflix so netflix is down 25 after the market 25 and i mean even on us on a year-to-date chart it's down give or take uh what is that i don't know from almost 600 it's down to 258 so it's about 50 60 just about so if you guys are wondering what happened today we're gonna go through it today make sure you guys stay tuned if you guys like any videos like this let me know down in the comments below as earning season comes up i'm hoping i get to make a little bit more of these i have no plans for a video today i like to do a little bit more of the ones with the actual camera but again this happened a little bit faster than i thought i was going to go to so first things first they had their earnings today their earnings were meh at best they weren't amazing they weren't you know i i don't think they were as terrible as people thought they were but uh they weren't the best so let's hop right into the earnings release that they had so i'm not going to go over every little thing if you want to just go on their investor relationships website the shareholder letter that they put out i was going to go over some of the key things that i really noticed and some of the things i wanted to touch on so the first thing that they said was our revenue growth has slowed considerably as a result in forecast below show streaming is winning over linear as we predicted and netflix titles are very popular globally not surprising there however our relatively high household penetration when including a large number of household sharing accounts combined competition is creating growth headwinds um that's interesting uh household penetration so they're talking about um you know you have one person that owns the account and then it gets shared it's not even just households like an actual like people that live within a house it's across different states possibly across different addresses just within the same city a lot of people share accounts this is something that netflix has touched on and a lot of consumers aren't too happy about but i mean netflix is going to do what knife is going to do to benefit the company so you can see for the quarter their revenue was uh eight billion and then obviously that year over year growth is just shy of ten percent operating income of almost two billion you got a operating margin 25 percent you get a net income of 1.5 billion and then you got diluted eps of three dollars and 53 cents and i believe this was slightly above what the uh estimated was i think the estimator was like somewhere like 250 260 um eps so that's pretty good there but this is really where a lot of people were concerned so the global streaming paid memberships is at 221.64 and what happened was that year-over-year growth is six percent but they had a paid net additions it's actually a loss so they lost people and they plan to lose more people as they guide forward and i just want to compare this really quickly to what they had originally said um so let me just show you what that looked like before so on the left you have the q1 2022 actual numbers and then on the right this is from their q4 letter q1 forecast so they estimated 7.9 they hit 7.86 they had a 10 uh year over year growth that's a nine point eight percent obviously um and then on their net income their net income was a little bit higher than what they had originally forecasted but here's what happened they estimated they're gonna get 2.5 net editions and they got negative 0.2 and this is talking millions this would be um 200 000 300 000 people but the really the big component in all of this is that i think that what we're starting to see is netflix is realizing okay we're hitting all the households but letting people have multiple accounts or multiple profiles underneath an account is becoming an issue um and they had they did do some testing with passwords and making sure that people had to like confirm like a uh you had to confirm a code to your computer code to your phone or something like that to make sure that it was actually you watching it um they did test it out with some people but what they believe is that their key to success is our ability to create amazing entertainment from around the world present it in highly personalized ways and win more viewing than way more viewing than our competitors that's really how their plan as far as like what they're trying to do and go out and do so that's really like the big component of why it's down so much is just the you know the amount of people that didn't sign up and the amount of people they plan to still lose and i'm gonna touch on here in a second why what really led to that but let's look at their growth outlook real quick so first um these are kind of the four things that they can see so now we believe that our four main interrelated factors that work first it's interesting increasingly clear that the pace of growth in our underlying addressable market is probably dependent on factors we do not directly control like the uptake of connected tvs the adoption of on-demand entertainment and data costs we believe these factors will keep improving over time so that all broadband households will be potential netflix customers second in addition to our 222 million paying households we estimate that netflix is being shared with over 100 million additional households including over 30 million in uk since the united states and canada account sharing as a percentage of our paying membership hasn't changed much over the years but coupled with the first factor means that it's harder for us to grow memberships in many markets an issue that was obscured by the coveted growth so we're talking when they say in covert growth talking about a lot of covid pulled forward a lot of the demand that they would have seen you know over the next couple of years a lot of it got pulled into 2020 because people are all at home but one thing they did mention was third competition for viewing with linear tv as well as youtube amazon and hulu have been robust for the last 15 years however the last three years as traditional entertainment companies realize streaming is the future many new streaming services have launched while our us television viewing share for example has been steady up steady to up according to nielsen we want to grow that share faster higher view share is an indicator of higher satisfaction which supports supports higher retention and higher revenue so i mean you can see it here they've kept that market share over time and i mean it's up a tiny tiny bit and i'm going to show you guys a turn right here after we go through the letter but the fourth factor is the macro factor so including sluggish economic growth increasing inflation geopolitical events such as russia's invasion of ukraine and some continued disruptions and covert are likely to have an impact as well so i just want to touch on this real quick so the sluggish economic growth i think one of the i guess losses or things that happens with netflix is you pay monthly um and you can cancel it at whatever time i mean that's a benefit for the consumer but it's not a benefit for the company versus if you buy a cable package you have to sign up for a year sign up for two years whatever it may be so people can't just you know cut cape i mean they can but they're not getting that money back and it's probably going to be put as debt on their um items increasing inflation again if push comes to shove food's going to come before netflix netflix is a want not a need even though it has replaced a lot of things it's a want not a need third one thing is that russia's invasion of ukraine it really proves that if geopolitical events keep happening like this like if another country gets raided um they actually lost viewers from russia obviously so that is one thing that i also wanted to point out which i think is very concerning now back to what i was talking about earlier with the whole sharing and the account sharing another focus is how to best monetize sharing the hundred plus households using another households account they think that this is a big opportunity again they've touched on this multiple times that this is an issue as far as revenue growth goes and getting paying customers i do think that personally if they start banning shared accounts or they make you they make it really hard for you to share an account people will probably drop off on netflix for a little bit but it'll likely come back in over time as people just kind of go like all right i want to watch whatever show i want to watch or what will end up happening is people pick one of the streaming services or two uh especially because right now netflix is you know weight is almost double or triple no it's almost double um disney plus disney plus is 7.99 and netflix is 15 16 and it's going up so as far as what they can do they need to really penetrate more households or really just have more people signing up for these accounts for them to make more sales especially if they're going to be charging people you know 15 16 bucks or even more depending on what you're trying to do so again the sharing likely helped fuel our growth by getting more people using and enjoying netflix and we've always tried to make sure within a member's household makes sharing within a household easy with features like profiles and multiple streams while these have been popular they've created confusion about when and how netflix can be shared with other households so early last year we started testing different approaches to monetizing and sharing and in march introduced two new page sharing features where current members have a choice to pay for additional households in three markets in latin america there's a broad range of engagement when it comes to sharing households from high to occasional viewing so while we view we won't be able to monetize all of it right now we believe it's a large short to midterm opportunity as we work to monetize sharing growth and arm revenue and viewing and we will become more important indicators of our success of membership growth so that again is it's one of those things where they're going to do it it's just when and i think that if you're looking at this company and you're seeing this drop and you like the valuation you like the prospects i do think that netflix as a company has become more and more sticky in people's lives not that people won't ever get rid of it or aren't willing to get rid of it but i think that as far as you know people dropping it i think netflix is only going to get better on their paid um content and what they pay for rather than licensing other people's content i think that that's a very very big opportunity that could probably present itself um given that you know you believe this story so the last thing i want to touch on at least for right here is this paid net editions so again they're paid net editions they 0.2 million so they lost 200 000 people compared against our guidance forecast of 2.5 to 4 million people added in the same quarter suspension over service in russia winding down of all russian paid memberships resulted in 0.7 million impact so 700 000 people were impacted on that paid net ads so realistically their paid net ads was really more so five hundred thousand not necessarily uh the you know the negative two hundred thousand that we saw but again this does speak to the fact that you know their forecasting was way off but who could have predicted the whole russia ukraine situation so it is something to note but you'll see here in a second um what it looks like by each uh region and then again they had a pretty good you know cash generative uh quarter they have some good free cash flows up obviously and then uh they kind of expect the same thing uh going forward for this year and again they're forecasting that so what happens in reality depends on you know just different situations that are happening in the macro market so looking at the regional breakdown of their letter the revenue uh you can see what their what their revenue is for q1 2022 versus the last four quarters or i guess technically the previous four quarters um again if you look at the net editions you had a bunch of regions that were losing people so you had you can lost 640 000 people emea lost 300 thousand people latim last 350 000 people apac added 1 million so as far as you know paid memberships go it's possible that apac ends up being one of the pushes that they need but we're going to see they're doing a great job though of trying to introduce international films because normally we export films to other countries but they're trying to create more content that's relatable to those people that live in those countries so squid game was a really big one where you know it was a korean film but a lot of people here in america really really liked it and it was huge hit across the globe really and i think that if they can get more hits like that where it's not just a regional um show it could be you know across many different regions i think that could be very beneficial for a lot of people going forward so last thing i want to touch on is their uh just their statements so obviously you can see their revenues versus the last um last couple of quarters and then obviously you have their eps so you have q4 2021 and then the year over year would be march 31st 2021 again you have their balance sheet so their balance sheets going up sadly and that's always great one of the things i liked was that they got rid of their short-term debt that's always really good to see that and then obviously the long-term debt is ticked down just as just a smidge just a smidge but you do want to see their debts go down you don't want them to be too over leveraged especially because they're building a lot of shows right now so you need tho they need the debt to fuel these shows and licensing and stuff but you want to make sure that they're taking on debt that's going towards things that actually return value to the shareholders and value to the company overall and then one of the things that i liked was the obvious every statement of cash flows but at the bottom here they laid out their free cash flow so they did it by each quarter as i mentioned earlier so you got your current quarter march 31st 2022 q4 2021 and then you got march 31st 2021.
so obviously you know around what is this thousands 800 million dollars worth of free cash flow for the quarter that's pretty good um they can keep that up you know you have two or so billion dollars free cash flow by the end of the year but again they're gonna make huge investments into different infrastructure and things so i would definitely watch the statement of cash flow and just sort of the free cash flow and see where it all goes or at least understand you know if they're gonna go negative like this you need to understand what that money is getting put into because again they have to create a lot of shows they have to license a lot of shows so this money is kind of going all over the place so as far as this company goes what is evaluation so the market caps 151 billion obviously if you take that out the market caps gonna come down 25 so let's just take that uh times it by 0.75 so it'll be about 113 tomorrow i my guess is that by the end of the week it'll probably be sub 100 which that would honestly be crazy they hit below 100 on the market cap i think this was i think i was reading earlier that this hadn't had like this hadn't hit this price since 2018 some point i was just kind of crazy to think about their pe is obviously going to drop along with that probably be around 20 and as they you know kind of move forward we're going to see what it really is their peg ratio is always going to drop i mean everything in here is going to drop price drop 25 as you can see up here so not super surprising their their ratios aren't terrible um that's what i'm saying i think this might be an opportunity for some people if you understand sort of the macro environment that they're competing in now because a lot of companies are truly getting into uh the streaming so it'll end up my guess end up becoming like the whole cable service ended up doing you know it grew really really big and then it tapered off because you know there's only so much only so much money that people are willing to put around again all this stuff doesn't really take into uh the current numbers today but one of the things i did want to note uh where is it up here so 52 week high was 700 oh my god 52 week high was 700 and they're gonna hit 258 opening tomorrow um that's that's that's pretty crazy so down 60 65 percent since the 52 week high that's not good so i just wanted to touch on this really quick too we were talking about this in a discord that i'm in uh the active churn rate so the active churn rate for you know netflix and disney plus are the two lowest on this chart netflix is at 2.4 so um really what the churn rate is talking about it's referring to you know the amount of people that are sort of getting like how much they're getting rid of um and just how much how much customers are really going through so with netflix at the lowest and surprisingly apple tv is at the highest i six percent seems to be the average between all of them and i'm curious to see over time if netflix keeps ticking up or if netflix stays where it is or how that competes because i think that the churn rate is definitely a big component of how you see this company doing well going forward so this is something i would definitely pay attention to you i got this from streamable.com they actually released this on january so this doesn't even take into account the last couple of uh months but it's something i wanted to touch on because i think that's very important that you see the churn rate and it's just something you follow if you're getting into streamers or any sort of uh company like this make sure you're watching this because this is something really big that you should be paying attention to um as you know i'm in discovery uh or taking warner bros discovery of the emerge so hbo max and discovery plus is something i follow um but if you're into disney disney plus and hulu are definitely something you want to follow as well anyways y'all i hope y'all find some you know good answers here and see if uh read that 10k or 10q and make sure to go through the earnings and all the things see if this is an opportunity for you i'm going to be going through this um probably in the next couple of weeks just to see if there's anything there bill ackman is currently in this now too so i i wouldn't be surprised to see him keep buying um especially as this dips 25 tomorrow and then it's probably gonna go down for the rest of the week so i wouldn't be surprised but i hope you all had a great day good luck on your earnings make sure you guys are reading them call or reading those letters and listening to those calls let me know if you guys have any comments down below if you have any suggestions anyways y'all take care have a great day
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