저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
H-1B 신청수수료는 미-인도 협상의 일부로 단기 충격이 크지만 결국 완화될 것으로 봄. AI로 코딩 수요는 줄고 생산성은 올라 기업 마진이 유지되며, LLM 경쟁은 OpenAI·Anthropic·xAI·Gemini 4강 구도로 정리 중. 중국 기술주는 밸류에이션이 미국의 약 절반이고 딥시크 이후 오픈소스 경쟁이 빠르다고 평가. 틱톡 매각 건은 트럼프식 특수 협상이라 예외적 사안으로 봄. 비트코인은 '3중 혁명'을 근거로 디지털 자산 노출을 늘리고 있다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
[. Let's go to one of our favorite tech investors. Kathy Wood, founder, CEO, and CIO of Arc Invest, joins us around the table to talk about this world. Kathy, we want to get into your tech investments. We want to get into your views, but we got to put this question to you around H-1B visas and this new application fee.
What do you make of it? What's the impact? Well, again, uh this is part of uh President Trump's negotiating process and I think he's negotiating quite intensively right now with India. Uh I think India would be uh have the biggest impact here in terms of uh you know workers in the United States. So, uh I I think this is a little bit like tariffs and it's going to capture all the headlines and it's going to uh really take uh the oxygen out of the room because there's a lot of really good fundamental activity happening in the United States relating relating to policy.
Well, a lot of that a lot of that innovation, a lot of that Silicon Valley uh kind of goodness really comes from the talent and the labor pool. We've been talking about this for quite some time in terms of how do you train your engineers, you train Americans to do a lot of what Silicon Valley depends on foreign workers to do.
Does this impact innovation in Silicon Valley and does it impact mega cap stocks, tech companies that are dependent on this? Well, from what we know of this administration, they uh ultimately want to keep students who have been educated in the US, foreign students that have been educated in the US in the US.
So really, I just think this is part of the negotiation with India and uh and that uh when all is said and done, we're probably going to loosen up uh the H1 visa uh visa program. But in the short term is it is it is that going to take have an impact on tech companies? I think what it's going to do is force tech companies to do what they're already doing and that is become more efficient.
And the other thing to to note is uh you know coding is changing dramatically. The number of coding jobs and openings has dropped dramatically because of AI. All of us can become coders. You've heard of vibe coding to meet that by the way. That's a lot of faith in God. uh you know this is natural language programming uh generative AI is prompting chat GBT to to get your programs going.
We can all do that. That's simplifying it. Uh but I do think it gives you a sense of the kind of productivity that possibilities that are possib that that will impact these tech companies longer term. Kind of takes me on to my next question. Is Chinese tech going to outperform US tech from a stock market point of view over the next year?
Well, you know, the valuations are quite different. They're they're roughly half of what they are in the United States. We're very impressed at how quickly China is moving here. I think the Deep Seek moment gave us uh an opportunity to understand that China is very focused on the open-source software movement.
We forced them into that. because our companies stopped selling into China out of fear of IP. So they've gone the open source route and are moving very quickly. Uh I think competition is a good thing. It's a good thing for the United States. It's a good thing for China. Uh I also think what's good about China recently is uh it is focused now on the idea that maybe commoditization has gone too far especially in the electric vehicle space.
Yeah. so-called involution. Uh they are thinking whatever that means whatever that means. So they're thinking that and it is true uh it is expensive to uh develop these large language models even though they say it's not it there's a lot of pre-training that takes place before you get a deep seek and uh if you're not profitable as a company uh you're you're going to have a lot of trouble competing in that space.
So I think even that is changing which is interesting. When does AI become profitable? When can I assume a margin on on AI? I and I'm talking about the large language model companies here. I huge amount of investment going in at the moment, Kathy. And everybody's scratching their head wondering does all of it deliver?
Does all of it produce a rate of return? Are we going to have to see some sort of shitarian sort of clearing of the clearing of the market at some point? What does that look like? What is your sense of kind of where we are at the moment? Well, I I think that the number of companies competing truly competing in the large language model space
has shrunk these aqua hires that open AAI and Meta uh that's all about you know other companies really not making it. So that uh so the process has already started the process has started but in terms who do you think is going to win? I Well, I think the big four right now are Open AI. Yeah. Uh, Anthropic, XAI, and Gemini.
Those four. Uh, and we don't know if this is going to be a four-h horsese race or a two- horse race. Let's see over time how they leaprog one another. And they are doing that regularly. It's very interesting. Could you ask about profitability? companies that are not hiring people. The number of new job openings is falling.
Uh they are already enjoying huge productivity increases. That's why margins have been sustained even with the tariff hit recently. In fact, tariffs being put in place. The counter to that is okay, we have to cut costs and uh that has and they're willing to pay $20 a month. Some are willing to pay $200 a month.
And those who are replacing PhDs, they're willing to pay $2,000 a month or more. Uh, and so as long as these companies get that signaling that that companies are willing to pay, they will continue to invest in this race. Kathy, you say competition is a good thing. We've talked about the landscape. Let's talk about you.
There's a lot more tech, innovation, robotics, ETFs out there now. How do you plan to compete? It's a great question, Lizzy. Uh, I think, um, our differentiation is our research. Uh, we have what I believe is the first sharing economy uh, company in the asset management space. When it comes to research, we give our research away.
We have given our Tesla model away. For example, approach. Yes. the open source from that point of view. Uh I think we have a very loud voice out there when it comes to innovation and I think uh some of the calls we've made starting in 2015 with Bitcoin uh at and at the same time roughly Tesla, Palanteer, Coinbase, Nvidia in the earliest days we were there when most people thought it was a PC gaming chip company.
So I think we've got a loud voice. You're asking about conversion because we have these other companies out there which with huge distribution. Well, thanks to Bloomberg, you know, uh we are able to share with you our research and it's research that others aren't doing in quite the same way. But when you look at the numbers, ARC's up about 40% this year.
Flows are absolutely flat. What can you do about that if great performance just isn't drawing people in? Well, what's interesting about that is most active managers are outflowing today. So, the fact that we're flat is very interesting. And what's more interesting to us and very gratifying having entered UK and Europe is that we are about about to cross $1 billion here in in Europe and the UK which uh in in two years time we acquired Rise in two years ago um is is very significant I think I think here in Europe a quarter of our reader base even before we launched was in Europe and the question was when are you coming to Europe?
So, uh we are getting the flows here in uh in the UK and Europe and we're we're really excited about the momentum behind those flows. Kathy, I want to get your take on a deal that was preliminarily announced on Friday between the United States and China when it comes to Tik Tok. Now, I think you're a unique person to to have this conversation with given your early exposure to Chinese tech stocks.
Tik Tok has now been we're still waiting for all the details, but we understand is being given seven board seats to Americans. There's a question of a licensing agreement. There's a question of some of the holders including the Murdoch or or Larry Ellison among others. What kind of precedent does that set for you as someone who is exposed to Chinese tech?
Is this the new norm or is this an idiosyncratic story? I I think this is idiosyncratic. Uh I I think during our election uh President Trump promised uh that uh he would be open-minded to uh keeping Tik Tok US. Uh it's so important to the young people and many more people uh in the United States. So I do think it's a one-off special case.
I also think it's a part of a broader negotiation with China. Uh I think if anyone can reenact a Nixon in China moment, it is President Trump. Uh he has been toughest on China. Uh everyone trusts that he will strike a good deal in everyone in the US trusts he will strike a good deal with China. And I think we're probably going to get more better than expected news longer term.
You'll hear a lot of saber rattling in the meantime, but this is one indication of that. Is Tik Tok a good investment if the US has more hold over it? And counter to that is bite dance a good investment if this is a deal that's being created. You know, the one question we always have when there is a breakup like that is does a company lose some of the network effect in some way?
Now, they were already supposed to be separate, China and uh the US. Uh we'll see. We'll see. Uh Tik Tok has uh been an amazing company has taught us a lot. This is what I mean about Chinese competition. They taught our companies a lot. I will say I will say that a company called Vine in the US was the precursor and Twitter at the time bought it was not able to activate it in the way Tik Tok has and Tik Tok ran away with that.
Would you want a piece of it? You know, we have to do a deeper dive when we get into the data room. Crypto's down a little bit. Bitcoin selling off this morning. Like at these kind of levels, are you a buyer or a seller? Well, we've been increasing our exposure generally to the digital asset space. Uh I think
uh Bitcoin has been the leader of tech. The others are following. Ether has followed now Salana uh and Hyperliquid is a new one the the new kid on the block. Uh we think this is three revolutions in one. A monetary revolution, a financial services revolution and really u in a much broader sense a digital property rights immutable property rights online.
Never happened before only possible because of blockchain technology. Okay, down by around crypto is down well the Bitcoin is down around 2% this morning. Kathy, great to see you. Thank you very much indeed.
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