저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 버블 붕괴가 아니라 지정학적 위험회피에 따른 일시적 조정이며, AI 인프라 수요(약 4조달러 지출 전망)는 견고하다는 주장. 엔비디아·크라우드스트라이크·앱러빈을 조정 시 매수 기회로 제시. 엔비디아는 2027년까지 1조달러 이상 매출 기회, 순이익률 58%+ 및 PER 약 21배를 근거로 제시. 크라우드스트라이크는 ARR 52.5억달러(+24%), 구독 매출총이익률 81%를 근거로 제시. 앱러빈은 EBITDA 마진 84%, FCF 마진 79%, 2026년 FCF 약 58억달러를 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
I don't think you know if this is something that's shortened, it doesn't change. Obviously it's prolonged then it becomes a bigger, you know, issue relative to demand. Look, I think the more immediate Middle East was going to be, you know, out really outside of US and China. That was going to be one of the biggest areas in terms of data center builds, UAE, you know, in terms of everything going on in Saudi, you know, Nvidia is going to be a huge player there as well as US tech.
But I just think broadly it speaks to like look, this is the demand trend that's not stopping based on geopolitical, but it's a risk-off environment relative to tech. So I would almost view it as it's much more disconnected relative to what's happening in the stocks to the actual demand. We saw that Nvidia this week, saw it at Palantir last week, and I think it continues to be especially in software, the sell-off here continues to be massively disconnected from what I believe the ultimate narrative will be.
That will be the hearts and lungs of the AI revolution. The headlines are screaming that the AI bubble is bursting, but the cold, hard data tells a diametrically opposed story. We are currently navigating what Wedbush's Dan Ives calls a white-knuckle market phase, where irrational panic is masking a fundamental industrial shift.
Let's be clear. The current market choppiness isn't a failure of AI technology or a cooling of demand. It is a classic geopolitical risk-off reaction. Historically, macro shocks like the current Middle East tensions act as a massive filter, shaking out the tourist day traders and retail investors while seasoned institutional capital positions itself for the inevitable recovery.
We saw this exact playbook during the April 2025 Liberation Day sell-off. Those who succumbed to the noise missed a historic recovery. While those who understood the disconnect between price and value made a fortune. The fundamentals of the fourth industrial revolution remain bulletproof. We are looking at a projected $4 trillion in AI-related spending over the next decade with $700 billion in checks already written by global hyperscalers.
The hearts and lungs of this movement, the semiconductor and infrastructure giants, are seeing demand curves that defy historical cycles. This isn't a bubble popping, it is a godsend entry point. Once the geopolitical dust settles, the high-flying names leading this revolution will likely never be this on sale again.
Today this thesis, focusing on infrastructure dominance, software resilience, and the mission-critical cybersecurity layer. Let's begin with the undisputed king of the hill, Nvidia. Ticker symbol NVDA. While the broader market seems to be caught in a cycle of hesitation, the actual data coming out of Santa Clara paints a picture of a company that isn't just leading the AI revolution, it's architecting its entire economic floor.
We've seen some recent jitters, but when you look at the fundamentals, the disconnect between the stock's current valuation and its operational reality is staggering. During the most recent GTC event, Nvidia unveiled a roadmap that targets a massive revenue opportunity exceeding $1 trillion through 2027.
This isn't just speculation, it's backed by the transition from the Blackwell architecture to the next-generation Vera Rubin systems. What's truly compelling here is the shift in the business model. Nvidia is moving beyond being a simple hardware provider to becoming the master of token economics. By driving down the cost of intelligence to roughly $6 per million tokens, they are making AI inference so affordable that we are likely hitting an inflection point where the volume of AI-generated content explodes globally.
The numbers are breathtaking. In the fourth fiscal quarter, Nvidia delivered 70% revenue growth with a normalized net margin of over 58%. Looking ahead, those margins are projected to expand even further to 64%. To put that in perspective, Nvidia's net income margin is nearly 10 times the sector median.
Despite this elite profitability, the market has allowed the forward price-to-earnings multiple to compress to around 21.4 times. For a company projected to grow earnings by nearly 74% in fiscal 2027, that puts it firmly in growth at a reasonable price territory, trading almost in line with the broader S&P 500.
The original Vera Rubin is on track to ship in H2 2026, and the integration of specialized chips for inference will only solidify their lead. While some fear a cyclical downturn, the reality is that demand is shifting from a one-time training binge to an ongoing efficiency load across healthcare, banking, and sovereign nations.
Moving from the hardware backbone to the essential immune system of the AI age, our second pick is CrowdStrike. Ticker symbol CRWD. Dan Ives refers to this as an epicenter play because as AI increases the sophistication of cyber threats, the defense must be even smarter. While the stock has seen a 25% retracement from its recent highs, the underlying data suggests this is a white-knuckle disconnect.
CrowdStrike has evolved into a cloud-native powerhouse that uses a single-agent architecture to create a global flywheel effect, where an attack blocked on one endpoint instantly trains the protection for every other customer on the network. The hidden growth engine here is the Falcon Flex licensing model.
CrowdStrike ended fiscal year 2026 with a massive $5.25 billion in annual recurring revenue, ARR, representing 24% year-over-year growth. But the real story is in the reflex transactions. Customers aren't just staying, they are expanding at a rate that defies traditional SaaS logic. Those who adopt Falcon Flex see an average ARR lift of 26% within just 7 months.
For the most committed cohort, that lift jumps to 48%. We are seeing a massive consolidation trend where 24% of customers now use eight or more modules, proving that CrowdStrike is successfully landing and expanding within the world's largest enterprises. Financially, the business is a cash flow machine.
CrowdStrike maintains a subscription gross margin of 81%, which allowed it to generate $1.24 billion in free cash flow for fiscal year 26. While critics point to a 109-day sales cycle, these are actually symptoms of the massive enterprise deals they are now winning, like the software buyer who recently scaled from a six-figure contract to an $86 million agreement.
With next-gen identity and cloud businesses growing at 45% combined, the transition to an AI-driven world makes CrowdStrike's protection more critical than ever. This isn't just a software stock, it's the mandatory utility of the fourth industrial revolution. To round out our buy-the-dip portfolio, we turn to a company that is arguably the most mispriced growth story in tech today, AppLovin.
Ticker symbol APP. This stock embodies the opportunity created when macro fear overshadows operational excellence. While the share price has nose-dived nearly 40% from its late 2025 peak, the fundamental engine of this business is actually accelerating. AppLovin is currently reporting a rule of 40 metric of over 135%, a figure that is virtually unprecedented in the software sector.
The core of the bull case is Axon 2.0, AppLovin's proprietary AI-driven advertising engine. In Q4 2025, the company delivered a stellar performance with revenue soaring 66% year-over-year. But the truly elite data point is their profitability. AppLovin achieved an 84% EBITDA margin and a staggering 79% free cash flow margin.
This means for every $100 the company brings in, nearly $80 drop straight to the bottom line as free cash. For the full year 2026, estimates for free cash flow have been upwardly revised to approximately $5.8 billion. The market is currently pricing AppLovin at a forward PE that reflects a total misunderstanding of its scale, especially considering EPS grew by over 100% in 2025.
With Wedbush maintaining a $650 price target and other analysts summer 2026, the valuation disconnect is massive. AppLovin is now aggressively expanding Axon 2.0 beyond its gaming roots and into the high-growth e-commerce sector. By leveraging strategic partnerships like the one with Stagwell, AppLovin is diversifying its revenue and positioning itself as the third major power in digital advertising alongside Google and Meta.
At these levels, you're looking at a dominant AI player trading at a significant discount, a textbook setup for the patient, data-oriented investor. The path to wealth in the stock market isn't found in following the herd, it's found in identifying the godsend disconnects between price and reality. As Dan Ives makes clear, the fourth industrial revolution is not a theory, it is a $4 trillion reality fueled by the hearts and lungs of companies like Nvidia, CrowdStrike, and AppLovin.
The geopolitical noise will eventually fade, but the structural demand for AI, cybersecurity, and intelligent advertising is only getting started. Don't let short-term volatility blind you to long-term dominance.
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