저자: ChristopherUhl · 외국인
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Charlie Munger·Warren Buffett 발언 인용 기반 투자 교훈 영상으로, 핵심 결론은 '작은 손실은 감수하고 비대칭적 레버리지로 큰 수익을 노려라'이다. 발언 내용: 한 번의 큰 손실을 만회하려면 10번의 수익이 필요하므로 작은 손실은 반드시 제한해야 한다는 주장. 젊을 때는 주식시장 방향이나 장기채 금리 예측처럼 비효율적이지 않은 게임을 피하고, 신약 파이프라인 비교처럼 아무도 제대로 분석하지 않는 비효율 시장에 집중하라고 조언. 근거 사례: LTCM 붕괴(Black-Scholes 모델을 만든 학자 포함에도 실패)를 들어 99% 승률 전략도 치명적 실패가 가능하다고 지적. 1990년대 RTC 부동산 처분 사례를 들어 매도자는 경제적 이해관계가 없어 서둘렀고 매수자는 신중한 상황이었던 불균형에서 기회가 생겼다고 설명. 언급 종목: 개별 종목 언급 없음(제약사 파이프라인 비교는 일반 예시). 예측 발언: 시장 방향·금리 예측 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 자신의 트레이딩(아이언 콘도르 등 리스크-리턴 구조)에 적용해 '작은 손실 감수, 비대칭 레버리지 활용'을 강조하며 영상을 마무리함.
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so you have to take those small losses in order to make the big wins worth your time because if you have one loss it takes 10 wins to make back you're destined for failure lyr.com l're going to be listening to charlie munger the number one thing to do to be a great investor now that sounds like something you want to learn you're in the right spot so let's get right into it one drug company has a better drug pipeline than another you want to go when you're young someplace it's very inefficient and you shouldn't be trying to guess whether the stock market is going to go up or whether long-term bonds are going to change in yield i mean you don't have anything to going in that kind of a game subscribe to my channel matthew monahan from palo alto california mr buffett mr munger first of all i want to thank both of you so for so freely sharing your wisdom and knowledge over the years even though we've never met in person i consider you both to be close personal mentors and attribute your teachings and philosophies to any success by the way that's super critical key and important is um surrounding yourself with people you want to learn from and be like i uh there's this great quote that says you are the average of the five people you spend your time with totally totally agree and i appreciate that i have become one of those people to you and to me i look for other people to do that right so we so a rising tide lifts all ships and and that's exactly how i feel about this podcast you're listening to me i'm listening to other people we're all growing together but um i recently heard something today it was like your self-image how you view yourself is like a thermostat if you set the thermostat at 80 it doesn't matter what comes at it you could open the door in the freezing weather and the heat will kick on you can open the door in in the middle of summer and the ac will kick on it will always try and come back to an equilibrium point but when you are around these other people it raises your set point maybe instead of being 80 you're now 84.
maybe another couple years go by you've learned a lot you're finding new people to be around you've left your old friends you found some new friends maybe that 84 becomes an 88 and little by little you grow into the person that you want to become because you're surrounding yourself with the people that you want to become so that's it for today's episode i'm just joking actually i i do feel like that was a a decent little thing that he said there and uh we're talking about success i've had in business so far so thank you here's my question for a 23 year old with high ambitions some initial working capital and a genetic wiring as you call it for disciplines like investments mathematics and technology what do you foresee as the significant areas of opportunity over the next 50 even 100 years and if you were in my shoes what would be your approach and methodology for really learning tackling and mastering these areas of opportunity for the purpose of massive value creation well i i i remain very i do want to point out that charlotte mongers over here just like snacking down on stuff it's not the first time he's had a 23 year old ask him hey how do i agree how do i be great and frankly when you get the chance to talk to somebody like lauren or davidson as i did was when i was 20 years old i probably learned more from laura davidson in those four or five hours than i learned in in college with the you know exception of learning some accounting or one or two subjects like that so you just want to soak it up if you have those qualities you talked about you'll see the areas as you go along i mean we have charlie and i probably you know we made money in a lot of different ways some of which we didn't anticipate you know when we were 30 or 40 years ago but we did have the ability to recognize some we didn't have the ability to recognize others but we did know when we knew what we were doing and when we didn't and we just kept looking we had a curiosity about things you would know at a time like a long-term capital management crisis for example that there were going to be ways to make money i mean it just they were going to be out there and all you had to do was just read and think uh okay so just to give a little bit of background steve burns one of my friends he loves talking about long-term capital management uh basically they sold out of the money options and uh they basically said that there's no possible way this could ever work against them there's no possible way that our strategy can blow up because we have a couple of the guys who made the black shoals model it's like we have black and shoals here and uh not only that they had like phds and they had some of the the greatest investors in the world in long-term capital management and it blew up so that's that's where warren warren's point is going here is that you know it anything can happen right and even on a strategy that has a 99 win rate there's that one chance that things could not work out your way eight or ten hours a day and you were going to cover a lot of possibilities probably a very high percentage of them good and some of them sensational so you can't really lay it out ahead of time you can't you can't have a you can't have a defined roadmap but you can have a reservoir of thinking looking at different kinds of businesses looking at different kinds of securities looking at markets in different places and you will then spot a reasonable number of things that come along you won't spot every one of them we've missed all kinds of things but the biggest thing too is to have something in the way you're programmed so that you don't ever do anything where you can lose a lot i mean our best ideas have not been better than other people's best ideas but we've never had a lot of things that pulled us way back so we we never went two steps forward and one step back we probably went two steps forward and a fraction of a step back but but avoiding the catastrophes is a very important thing and it will be important in the future i mean you will have your chance to participate in catastrophes charlie warren's point here is that the asymmetrical leverage of what they do this is just like buying a call option there's only so much you can lose but in theory you have infinity to win that's the style of trading that i trade is that you've got to limit your losses no matter what you have to limit your losses you don't want losses to work exponentially against you you want your winners to work exponentially for you so you have to take those small losses in order to make the big wins worth your time because if you have one loss it takes 10 wins to make back you're destined for failure yeah and of course the place to look when you're young is in the inefficient markets you shouldn't be trying to guess whether you know one drug company has a better drug pipeline than another you you want to go when you're young someplace it's very inefficient inefficient you shouldn't be trying to guess whether the stock market is going to go up or whether long-term bonds are going to change in yield i mean you don't have anything to going in that kind of a game but you can have a lot going in in in games that very few people are are playing and maybe whether even got their heads screwed on wrong in terms of how they're thinking about the subject the rtc was a great example of a chance to to make a lot of money uh i mean here was a seller of ten hundreds of billions of dollars worth of real estate where the people that were selling it had no economic interest in it were eager to wind up the thing you know and they were selling at a terrible time when the people who had been ventures in and lending were no longer lending the people who've been venturesome in in the equity end of real estate had gotten cleaned out so you had a great background of environment and then you had you had an imbalance of intensity in terms of analyzing situations between the seller which was the government with a bunch of people had no economic interest in it were probably eager to wind up the job and buyers on the other side who were of the generally cautious type because the more ventures in time had taken themselves out of action so and there were huge amounts of property so you get these opportunities and you'll get more i mean there won't be any scarcity of opportunities in in your life although there will be days when you feel that way awesome so yeah this is actually a a really great trading video sometimes these videos don't work out so much to my favor because i don't watch them ahead of time but this really was and it's because like you said the asymmetrical leverage and that's exactly the point that they wanted to get across here take two steps forward half a step back a quarter step back don't take two steps back don't take two steps forward and then three steps back don't sell the iron condor that has a ten to one risk return relationship and you let it go and now you have to have ten trades in a row go right in order to make up for the one that went wrong i say that with passion because that's how i blow my account the first time so listen the point of the today's lesson is find the asymmetrical leverage listen to these two guys charlie munger and warren buffett they feel like they probably have something that they know what they're doing but really the key here is take two steps forward a quarter step back and use that asymmetrical risk return in your favor once you do you're going to be set up so hey listen i hope you found this useful if you did make sure you smash the like and uh tune in next week for more tools tips and tricks we upload every single week don't be trade faster and trade smarter and i'll see you next episode
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