Nouriel Roubini On How Increased Yields, Defends Against Inflation?

요약 보기

결론: 인플레이션 대응은 긴축으로 경기침체를 유도하거나, 장기채 대신 물가연동채(TIPS)나 단기 국채를 활용하는 것이 방향이다. 루비니의 주장: 인플레이션을 잡으려면 정책금리를 올려 경기침체를 유발해야 하며, 1970년대에는 정책금리가 15%까지 올라 이중침체가 발생했다. 긴축은 고통스럽지만 인플레이션 기대를 꺾을 수 있다. 투자 전략: 금리가 오르면 장기채 가격이 하락하므로 40년간의 채권 강세장에서 보았던 장기채 보유는 피해야 한다. 인플레이션 상승과 금리 인상기에 수익률이 오르는 물가연동채(미국 TIPS, 유럽 유사채)나 만기 1~2년 이내의 단기채가 대안이다. 발언에 언급된 전망: 주식은 하락할 가능성이 크고, 채권도 하락할 수 있다. 원자재와 에너지 등 인플레이션 방어 자산이 필요하다고 언급했다. 진행자 설명: 1970년대 정책금리(연방기금금리) 최고치는 약 13%로 확인되며, 1974년 7월 이후 1975년 4월 5.25%로 인하되었다고 설명한다. TIP 관련 ETF(TIP, iShares TIPS Bond ETF)와 미국 국채 단기물 예시를 소개했다. 리스크: 물가연동채는 실질수익률 방어 목적이며, 단기 국채는 2년 이내 인플레이션 지속 시 유리하다. 장기채는 금리 상승 시 평가손실 위험이 크다. 이 영상은 2021년 6월 기준이며, 특정 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 가격 목표는 제시되지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. in this video nuria roubini will answer a question as it concerns how to deal with inflation and then we will react there after explaining some of the terms he mentioned there and also pointing out uh some of the financial instruments he he will mention in that video so we will play the video clip play his uh reaction first and then we will react uh thereafter question how could increase yields defend against uh inflation well two aspects of it one way to try to fight inflation is to cause a recession by raising policy rates and that's what happened in the past when with inflation in the 70s eventually we needed the bulk of this inflation where policy rates became 15 to lead to a double deep recession to kill the back of inflation inflation expectation but it was very painful so tight monetary policy eventually can cause a recession and kill inflation and the second thing is maybe the second part of the question is that of course if inflation goes higher if you are in bonds long term uh as the yield goes higher the price falls and you have a massive loss on your bond portfolio so you don't want to be in long bonds like you've been for the last 40 years of the bond bull market you want to be in instruments they're going to be repricing and give you a higher return when inflation goes higher this is inflation-indexed bonds like the tips in the u.s and similar in europe or short-term low maturity say one or two-year maximum rather 10-year maturity bond so that when inflation goes higher and policy rates rise those yields go higher they give inflation protection without having the capital losses that you get by holding long-duration bonds so that's that's the direction to go so um one of the things he mentioned there the first of them all amongst amongst many is uh policy rates so uh you and i must have been hearing a lot of pulses of rates monetary rates and all sorts of things interest rates you know we are probably by far more conversant with that you know we have credit and all that stuff credit loans and others so we we definitely understand what uh interest rates mean but indeed you know what what is the policy rate he mentioned there so so policy rate is a short-term reference rate set by most central banks like the u.s federal reserve so it is a rate at which commercial banks borrow money from the same central central banks so he mentioned that at some point in 1970s that policy rate was up to 15 so based on a brief search we have done we can see that we have a reach that was it was mentioned here that it was close to that since the federal the fed increased the bench mark rate to 13 percent in uh july 1974 which wasn't the 1973 recession it reversed cost dramatically lowering the rate to 5.25 by april 1975 so indeed you know that's uh to some extent divided of a validation of uh that so um but in any case though that what we just read now wasn't the case of that recession or or rather yes it wasn't but i mean i think then the way they may have been dealing with it with an inflation that's why it was raised and probably read led to a recession or something like that you know so okay now this brings us to some of the instruments he mentioned there you can see that it tips inflation protected bond so but this is and this is the i shares t bond etf so this is an etf not exactly the bond we would we're not exactly able to find uh the particular bond so this is as it concerns child swap you know so you can such or contact your trading platform and they will probably uh see what they can provide for you so but as it concerns uh this is a summary page as it concerns uh charles schwab you can see what's what's saying there um uh what is it called i think there are also options involved as well okay um previous uh dividend payment was 0.0.6807 uh previous paid date was june 7 2021 previous x um x date it was at june 1 2021 that is probably the date you need to have had the instrument that the etf for you to have received that dividend so um i'm indeed more you know there's a summary here the investment seeks to track investment results in of bloomberg bloomberg barclays u.s treasury inflation protected securities so this is an etf that is uh um that is an instrument an inflation protected bond or something like that so it's associated with the those those tips you know so you know that's what i'm i'm trying to point out so the other one is the he mentioned the low maturity bonds so you can see here the best of them all are these two the u.s treasuries the u.s treasury zeros you can see three months six months nine months one year 18 months two years two years you can see that so the good thing is that um they are much more flexible and in a very short time um you know things will begin to you can i mean in a version of time uh i mean if inflation is likely to come and stay as long as up to two years you know so within that time you would have uh participated gone through that inflation and also um yeah being able to end some income because uh amongst other things there's a good chance that stocks will fall according to him stocks will fall bonds might also fall you know uh but um these sort of uh bonds were not exactly the type that these are the the some of the type that will give you some protection as you pointed out in the video so and he did he also mentioned some of some other in some other assets not in this video in um in the same broad video but not we didn't play it now so he was mentioned things like commodities commodities uh energy and yeah you know those are some of the things that can you know that's those are some of the assets that you probably need to have you know in case inflation is confirmed to be uh prevailing so so let's have a look and see what this 282 year um maturity bond is talking about here you can see um it's a coupon of 0.125 maturity date is considered 15th of july 2023.

02. so quantity is uh i think 25 is the minimum you need to buy the price is 99 so not too bad not too bad so but in any case still 90 have to multiply it that's roughly 100 times 25 that's will be 2 500 well slightly less or no more than that again okay uh is it estimated total okay so 24 now okay 24 999 so um all right okay so i got that wrong so you need to you need to probably what you need to um is it i'm not sure exactly what that is but it says here prices start quantity is 25 so i want to believe that it's going to be it's going to be the minimum we can buy will be 25 i suppose but um sometimes it's usually not the case you know so but in any case let's click on that and see what it's saying over there um treasury 0.125 15th of july 2023 so what is this saying here some of the details yield to maturity is uh that is what you will be paid 0.61 percent okay so beat five speed uh beat five ask five so i think probably i'm not exactly sure i have not treated them before but in any case though you probably have a vague idea of what i'm talking about so um yeah that's how to deal with deal with uh the inflation as you explained it and these are just two of the many two of some of the assets you need to you can use to uh protect yourself against inflation as those are the tips and in that indeed in our own case we showed you etf tips and then we now show you again the low to low yield maturity and in this case the two-year low yield maturity okay so thank you very much for watching this video