저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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미국 경제가 심각한 위기에 처해 있으며 인플레이션이 재상승해 스태그플레이션과 대형 금융위기로 이어질 것이라는 주장. 인플레이션: 연준의 인플레이션 승리 선언은 성급하며, 유가가 최근 4개월간 40% 상승해 물가가 다시 크게 오를 것이라고 주장. 전략비축유 방출로 떨어졌던 유가는 비축량이 바닥이라 더 이상 억제 불가, 향후 수년간 배럴당 100~200달러까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 식품 등 전반적 물가 상승 예상, 현재를 1970년대 초기 단계에 비유. 금리·재정: 연준은 금리를 낮추지 못하고 높은 금리가 장기화될 것. 국채 이자비용은 국방비를 넘어 이미 예산 3번째 항목이며 내년쯤 메디케어까지 넘을 것으로 전망. 평시에도 연 2조 달러 이상 재정적자, 다음 침체 시 연간 적자 4~5조 달러 가능성. 과거 2008년 이후 제로금리와 양적완화가 현재 문제의 원인이며 되돌릴 수 없다고 평가. 고용: 노동시장 위기 우려, 다수가 투잡을 뛰고 일부는 정부 지원에 의존. 임금이 물가를 따라가지 못하며 서비스업 일자리 감소와 실업률 급등 예상. 규제·세금·소송 부담으로 고용 회피 증가. 정책 처방: 정부 지출 대폭 삭감과 규제 완화가 필요하나 현재 방향은 반대라고 비판. 대외 요인: 달러는 현재 안전자산으로 수요가 있으나 브릭스 등 신흥국의 달러 탈피 움직임이 진행 중이며, 이는 미국 경제 기반 붕괴로 이어질 위험. 러시아 제재 이후 가속 가능성. 시장 전망: 미국 채권은 역사상 최악의 약세장이 될 수 있으며 금리는 훨씬 더 오를 것. 미국 주식은 과대평가되어 사고 날 일만 남음. 금·은, 원자재·농업·에너지, 가치주·고배당주(필수소비재), 가격 결정력 있는 기업, 해외 신흥국·가치주 선호. 할인 증권사 이용 권장. 장기 전망: 달러 약세, 스태그플레이션, 채권 가격 폭락 등 금융 아마겟돈 대비를 권고.
다듬은 글
well and great to be joined right now by Peter Schiff chief chief Economist with europacific Asset Management Peter thanks for a few moments today oh my pleasure obviously lots of questions about kind of where the state of the US economy is right now give us your overall view at this point well I think the US economy is in a lot of trouble I think uh you know we're poised for a unprecedented uh you know economic collapse based on the fact that the markets um have prematurely celebrated the fed's victory over inflation um the the expectation is that the FED is close to achieving its goal of you know putting the inflation Genie back in the bottle that we're going to be back to 2% inflation and that means the FED could slash interest rates back down to the super low rates that uh people on Wall Street have uh grown accustomed to as well as the US government and American consumers but that's not reality reality is inflation is here to stay uh it's about to take a a huge move back up towards the year-over-year highs you know we went from 9% down to 3% but that was mainly because of a 50% drop in oil prices well oil's up 40% in the last four months headed much much higher and uh you know the reason we were able to get the price down before was an unprecedented dump of oil from the Strategic petroleum Reserve well it's now an all time record low we only have about a 20-day Supply there's really not much they can sell unless they want to deplete it completely uh so now there's nothing to stop oil prices from heading well north of 100 you know maybe $150 to $200 a barrel uh over the next couple years and with that going on I mean inflation's not going anywhere near 2% that means the fed's got a lot more to do on rate hikes and that means uh uh it's not a soft Landing it's a crash landing and probably a worse financial crisis than 20 eight so let me start with the inflation component because the the the FED has obviously tried to Target that 2% number for a while and I think even the perception as inflation the numbers have seemed to come down is that getting from 4% to 2% was really going to be a tough pull to get to that point correct well it's we're not even going to come close because we're going to go back up right inflation is headed much higher at least you know the the the official measures so they have no chance of of getting getting the 2% the markets just don't understand this now the FED has to you know try which means rates are going to stay higher for longer and nobody can afford it you know the if just look at the federal government interest on the national debt is now the third biggest line item of the budget it just passed National Defense but by the end of next year it'll probably be the biggest it'll probably be bigger than Medicare which is number one uh imagine that I mean we're going to be spending over two trillion dollars a year just an interest on the national debt and the next recession is going to see annual budget deficits swell to probably four to five uh uh trillion dollars a year because we're running deficits right now in peace time in a supposedly good economy in excess of $2 trillion I mean that that's never happened before what should have or could have the Federal Reserve done to change the path of this well nothing really I mean if they would have done the right thing sooner we would have had a collapse sooner the problem was uh the FED never should have bailed out the economy uh following the 2008 financial crisis the way that it did it shouldn't have slashed interest rates to zero it shouldn't have done all that quantitative easing the FED set the stage uh for the tragedy that's about to unfold and there's no way that they can undo that right the mistakes were made a long time ago now we're just having to deal with the consequences so if we're going to see oil prices that high you're talking about just an unbelievable impact on on the public in general As you move across the board oh yeah and not just oil prices I mean food prices uh you know everything's going to go up uh and so the inflation is just getting started we're we're we're at the beginning if you look back at the 1970s we're like 1971 1972 this is early days it's going to get a lot worse what are your thoughts on the labor force right now well I think the labor force is going to be in a lot of trouble I think a lot of people are in the labor force now with two or three jobs because they can't get by on one job because wages have not kept paid with prices I think we do have a lot of people that have left the labor force and they're just permanently uh you know detached from it living off of some type of government handout uh and I think that's going to be a bigger problem but also I think there's a big skills mismatch I think that uh American workers don't have the skills that American employers need that's unfortunate uh but that's you know a flaw in our educational system run by the US Government so I think that the labor force is is uh in trouble I think this next economic downturn is going to see a big increase in unemployment a lot of these jobs are in the service sector and uh you know we can't afford those jobs anymore and meanwhile you know you do have um other other things that are coming to help uh alleviate the need for for for Labor uh and as you know you have more onerous regulations taxes lawsuits and things like that associated with being an employer uh more and more employers are trying to figure out how they can organize their companies without actually hiring any people or hiring as few people as possible so the government is unfortunately making it a lot more difficult for for people who want jobs so let me put you in the in the big chair for a second and and think about maybe the first couple of things that need to be addressed right out of the gate here to try at least start it the path back in the right direction well I mean we got to shrink government I mean that's the most important thing we can do is dramatically cut government spending uh so we don't have these huge deficits anymore because that's ultimately what's been driving the fed and inflation is uh you know the fiscal deficit so they've got to go away we need to see a lot of deregulation so that businesses are not hampered uh by all of that uh red tape so that it's easier uh for businesses to survive and compete GL globally you know without all that government uh regulation to have to uh overcome but unfortunately we're we're still going in the wrong direction you know we're still uh increasing the size of government and burden that it places on the economy and on businesses and uh and so we're just making the problem worse how about outside factors outside the US and and the potential impact that they may add into this mix as we move forward obviously there's a lot of conversation uh around what's going on in China right now the European economy has still got a lot of issues with it as well yeah well you know right now you know one of the best things the US has got going for it is that other countries have problems too and so uh the way the world has generally re reacted to that is you buy the dollar as a save Haven and that enables the US economy to continue down this destructive path of uh consumption and debt but now you have you're seeing a bit of a revolution around the world a lot of the countries don't want to play this game anymore uh especially after seeing what happened to Russia and how it got punished for using the dollar as a reserve and so I think you're seeing this movement uh particularly out of the Emerging Markets The Brick Nations to divest and dollarize and that is going to be a huge problem for the US going forward as the world makes progress in its move away from the dollar because the Dollar's role as the reserve currency is what our whole economy is based on so we lose that and everything implodes because our economy can't function unless we can get Imports of goods that we don't produce and unless we can rely on the world's savings to finance our debts but if we can't do that if we have to finance our own debts if we have to produce our own Goods we we're incapable of doing that yeah sounds like the message also to investors would be uh kind of a a concerning one as well as you move forward over the next six 12 18 months yeah look investors have to realize that everything that worked during the bubble isn't going to work as the air comes out so people have to think outside the box uh don't take a cookie cutter uh you know Wall Street approach to your Investments you got to prepare really uh you know for a financial Armageddon uh you know of stagflation of a falling dollar uh collapsing bond prices I mean just look at the bond market again today I mean uh you know this is a major major bare Market I mean don't underestimate how many more years this bare Market is going to run and how high bond yields are going to rise uh this is going to be probably the worst Bond bare Market in history I think it'll end up being worse than the bare Market of the 70s and if you recall uh interest rates you know on treasuries ended that decade around 13 14% And money market rates were up around you know 20% 21% you know for t- bill so uh you know where we are now uh five five and a quarter you know in the short term four and a quarter on a 10 year to a 30-year I mean we're we're just starting even though it's already been ugly for anybody in bonds it it's going to get a lot worse but people have to get out of not just us bonds but I think US stocks are an accident waiting to happen they're much too expensive they're priced for you know a fantasy of of of what's going to take place where inflation comes back down uh we have the we we don't have recession it's like this Goldilocks economy where everything is awesome uh nothing's in is is awesome you know Goldilocks you know is going to get eaten by the big bad wolf here uh so it's not it's not going to turn out the way Wall Street believes so what I advise people to do and I've been advising this for a while now it's not like I just started this approach because I've been forecasting what's going to be happening for many many years you know because this has been a long time in the making we're just now a lot closer to the reality of this uh um you know I I didn't know that we could make it this long you know we kicked a can down the road for a long long time uh but our ability to do that is uh is running out so you got to have a portfolio that is an inflation hedge that means make sure you have gold and silver as part of your portfolio uh invest in the Mining stock but also other companies uh agriculture energy that will do well you know with a inflationary environment where commodity prices are kind of leading the way higher but also you need to own a lot of equities but not the overpriced stuff that you find in in the S&P or you know the NASDAQ 100 you got to look around the world for Value companies companies that you can buy at a low PE that pay high dividends that sell goods and services that their customers actually need and can't do without and so as inflation pushes up the price of everything they don't stop buying what you're selling maybe they'll buy a little less of it but they're going to keep buying it they're going to stop buying discretionary items so that's not where you want to be or you know you don't want to be selling things that the consumer could do without because he's going to do without it because he's got to eat you know he's he's he need he needs to you know he his home or cool it or whatever he he doesn't want to be in the dark so there are certain things that people are going to have to buy and they're going to have to pay a lot more to buy them so you want to own the companies that have pricing power and not like look what's happening now with all these cable companies uh you know and other content consumers can't afford all these streaming services they're broke and so all these cable companies content providers are are feeling that because they're they're losing their subscribers because they can't afford it they need the money for food right so they don't have it uh and so they're cutting back where they can so you don't want to be invested in the companies that that are going to you know on be on the losing end of that cutback but I find the value internationally and that's also a good hedge against the falling dollar uh so you know we I'm building portfolios for people at EUR Pacific Asset Management um that you can't really do yourself and no mainstream Wall Street firm is going to do it for you uh so if you're interested in protecting yourself from the inflation tax and and kind of prospering during this uh you know this economic period I can help you if you're more of a doer your selfer I've got five mutual funds that I own and and manage and you could buy these funds uh and any of the major brokerage firms or the discount firms some of the you know the big full service firms you know won't let me on their platform uh they just don't want the competition but all the discount brokers you know they have more of a Level Playing Field and they're not not trying to guard their their customer base from competitors right but I've got an emerging market fund which I think the Emerging Markets are going to do extremely well over the rest of this decade relative to the US got an international value fund a dividend pairs fund a gold fund right with all kinds of gold mining stocks and I have a foreign bond fund I mean if you're going to be in bonds you might as well be in short-term obligations of other countries not the US government uh which is broke and is going to inflate away the value of the of of its liabilities Peter great to have you with us today thanks for your Insight we'll stay in touch thank you sir all right take care my pleasure you got a Peter Schiff Chief Economist with europacific Asset Management
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