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Tesla stock has been on an absolute tear in 2023 and you can see on your screen Tesla has been a monster since 2011. in 2020 the stock was up 743 percent but last year in 2022 the stock was down 65 let's break down Tesla stock show you some of the highlights and future growth opportunities then we'll look at fundamentals and some bold price predictions from people like Kathy Wood from Ark invest and we'll also look at a chart to see where the stock is headed in the short term is Tesla stock a buy now let's dig in so Tesla's up over a hundred percent year-to-date today it's down about five percent trading at 244.29 it's up 26.46 over the past month year to date 125.99 over the past year the stock is basically flat 52-week low 101.81 52 week high 314.67 this market caps right about 782 billion dollars in the PE ratio 73.53 so of course after being hammered in 2022 the stock is up big year to date Tesla is one of the largest technology companies in the world but it's also one of the most polarizing stocks in the world because of CEO Elon Musk so what are some reasons to be bullish about Tesla longer term the list is actually quite long and I'm not saying the stock is cheap here by any means but when you look at Future growth opportunities there are a lot of different hands and different pots at Tesla as you know Tesla has already established itself as a market leader for electric vehicles in 2022 Tesla delivered 1.31 million vehicles that number's up 40 percent from 2021.
when you look at the Legacy car manufacturers like Ford Ford only sold 61 575 Vehicles last year and General Motors the largest car manufacturer in the United States only sold 39 096 Vehicles last year so Tesla in the United States when you think of market share absolutely dominates electric vehicles so so Tesla is really just scratching the surface when you think of EVS in 2022 13.7 million light Vehicles were sold in the United States and 67.2 million cars were sold worldwide so electric vehicles last year only represented about 14 percent of sales globally for some additional perspective in 2020 only four percent of global Vehicles were electric and the iea expects 14 million EVS sold worldwide this year that's up 35 from last year and of course another thing to highlight here are the tax credits for electric vehicles this could be a big Tailwind for Tesla the company sold 423 000 vehicles in the first quarter with projections of 1.8 million this year now remember that's a pretty big jump because they sold 1.31 million cars in 2022.
another Tailwind for Tesla Tesla's expanding its product line and one big hole for Tesla's lineup this entire time has really been having a truck and Tesla's long-awaited cyber truck is is expected to be rolling off assembly lines this fall in 2023. now this could be a huge market for Tesla in the U.S full-size Truck Sales totaled 2 million in 2022.
General Motors sold over 750 000 of those and Ford sold over 653 000. so last year 10.9 million light trucks were sold in America and trucks don't just add to Total unit sales they also add to profitability back in 2020 Morgan Stanley did a report and they said that most of the profits for Ford and General Motors actually come from trucks listen to this that five vehicles including the Silverado and Sierra accounted for 80 percent of GM's earnings before interest in taxes and last year RBC and Morgan Stanley pegged Ford's profit per truck or SUV at 14 000 per vehicle so if these numbers are accurate the Tesla cyber truck could be huge for both top and bottom lines for Tesla in addition to the Cyber truck you have Tesla semi trucks and Tesla is aiming to ramp up to 50 000 Tesla semi-electric trucks per year now I totally get it I know that Elon Musk often will over promise and under deliver when he talks about some of these stats and timelines so take numbers like this with a grain of salt but on a recent earnings report this is a couple quarters ago he said on a call it takes about a year to ramp a production so we're attentively aiming for 50 000 units in 2024 that's just next year and obviously we'll expand Beyond North America Tesla has many other assets in addition to the ones we've already covered including one of the nation's largest solar companies and mega Pack's emerging battery storage solution for utilities and Tesla really is an AI company it's an artificial intelligence company a couple years back we did a top AI stocks to buy and it was one of the top picks on that list we said really Nvidia and Tesla were the two top picks when you think of AI stocks so that'll segue into things like autonomous vehicles Robo taxis which we'll talk more about later with Kathy Wood from Arc in addition the potential for even robots like Optimus now these are moonshot investments so they're not guaranteed slam dunk You could argue they're somewhat speculative but if either one of these work out even 50 percent of what say Kathy what is saying the stocks can be worth a lot more money in 2027 and 2030.
so you really can be bullish about several different things not just electric vehicles we're talking about semi trucks we're talking about artificial intelligence Robo taxis robots and more now this was posted in Discord today by Dave and if you want to join us in our private Discord and patreon community but this is hot off the presses here from Arc so last week Tesla released its compute capacity forecast making it clear that this will not only be one of the top EV companies in the world manufacturers in the world but also one of the most important AI companies in the world Tesla's projecting that by October 2024 its compute capacity will hit a staggering 100 extra flops that's 20x more than the 4.5 extra flops that were discussed in the AI day recently in other words Tesla may become one of the largest AI training companies in the world in the two years ending October 2024.
Tesla intends to scale its capacity from 14 000 Nvidia a100 chips to the compute equivalent of 300 000 Nvidia a100 chips for perspective with 80 of the market in the past year Nvidia shipped an estimated 350 000 GPU units so this is one big reason why people are very bullish about Nvidia right now with that said Tesla's starting to create their own chips while Tesla will probably continue to purchase Hardware from Nvidia Tesla is likely to shift increasingly to its own hardware and chips Dojo to reach 100 extra flops of capacity at 3x to perform at some videos a100 in October 2024.
that said because nvidia's latest ship the h100 already is four to six x higher performance than the a100 Tesla will have to create and Advance its Hardware rapidly and of course that's if they want to dominate in the race to full autonomy in the transportation space in this chart here is is the road to autonomy again from arkhanvest time taken to reach most recent one million miles you can see waymo which is owned by Google 2.4 years Crews three months and Tesla FSD miles it says 14 hours so here's that federal tax credit we talked about 7 500 now available for model 3 and model y you've got the lineup here Model S model 3 XY you also have solar roof solar panels and powerwall and this is their Ai and Robotics page talking about the Tesla bot FSD chip Dojo chip Dojo system neural networks autonomy algorithms code foundations and more so as you probably know Arc invest their Flagship ETF is the arkk and the top holding in arkk is Tesla at about 12.15 percent weight and I'm going to talk a little bit more about Arc and their prediction on cessla here in a few minutes as well as get some commentary from Kathy Wood before we do that I want to look at some quick fundamentals on Tesla stock so trade at 244 dollars we mentioned the p e ratio is about a 75 it's a mega cap about 813 billion dollar market cap short interest three point three one percent additional metrics price to sales ratio 9.41 price to cash flow ratio is 51.66 price to book about 17 16.92 PEG ratio is high you want that generally you want one or less but this is a growth stock there's a lot of people that are very hyped about the stock longer term and it's going to trade at a premium valuation so right now that PEG ratio is 7.39 that is not cheap now with that said PE for next year's estimate right now it's sitting at 52.6 now you never want to buy a stock just solely off analyst rankings and price targets but I think it's good to look at just to get an idea of sentiment so right now it's a moderate buy with 31 analyst rankings the highest price Target 335 lowest is 85 dollars and the average price Target is 220 dollars and four cents now Arc is expecting Tesla to be two thousand dollars a share in 2027 and their bull case is even higher at twenty five hundred dollars per share their case is still fourteen hundred dollars a share in 2027 and this breaks down on Revenue by business line their expected value you can see this light green here is electric vehicles only 47 percent Robo taxi 44 and then other so Arc isn't even really planning on any of the Moon shots that we talked about this is really just electric vehicles and Robo taxis not optimists not solar not Mega packs and so on and instead of reading through more of this for you let's hear directly from Kathy Wood of Arc invest General Motors joining four now in partnering with Tesla to use its charging Network in North America under the deal Jim's electric vehicles will gain access to 12 000 of Tesla's fast Chargers starting next year it is a very big deal joining us right now is Ark invest CIO and CEO Kathy Wood Tesla is of course the top holding of the arc Innovation ETF well I think it's great for America and our transition to the electric future as uh as Elon said and I do think it increases the probability that our forecast of 60 million electric vehicle sales by 20 seven it has increased the probability that that is right we had uh globally 7.7 electric vehicles sold around the world last year going to 60 million and is going to completely dominate the industry and I think having both General Motors and Ford on this charging Network which is the big gating Factor range anxiety uh gets us there that much faster you know this this is reminds me of what happens uh with most technologies that proliferate and scale there's a standard and here we have a charging standard charging uh solves uh the range anxiety problem and what's also very interesting about this is it does help Tesla underwrite uh the the charging station expense because if you look at Tesla's sales they are highly concentrated on the coasts now it's going to make a lot a lot more sense for Tesla to roll out charging stations that much faster throughout the country how much of their revenue and profits do you now imagine over time will be a function of the infrastructure part of their business versus the automobile manufacturing part of their business well actually we think another Revenue source is going to be much bigger and of course that's the autonomous taxi platform uh and we think it's going to drive the valuation because the margins associated with autonomous uh are going to be sas-like so instead of electric vehicle gross margins in the 25 to 30 percent range we expect autonomous the platform strategy to deliver 80 90 margin so the combined will be north of 50 percent in terms of the of of the grid though that they're building and and these charging stations you think that's a small part of the business and the services that they've been able to layer on at some of those stations we have not counted so we are in print at 2000 dollars in 2027 and we have not counted uh the possible Revenue sources associated with this strategy and we haven't even done much in the energy storage business away from electric electric vehicles because we think the most valuable part of the business will be the scaling of vehicles in to create this autonomous taxi platform and another Tesla Mega Ball Ron Baron Tesla stock can hit 1500 a share by 2030.
so a bit more conservative than Arc but still much higher than what it's trading at today and here's a quote from Ron Baron this is on CNBC demand picks up so much it's unprecedented demand for his cars right now we started investing in his company in 2014 and they were doing 31 000 cars per year he thinks 20 million cars by 2030.
I'm thinking 1500 share by 2030. so next we're going to look at a chart and I'll give you my final thoughts and commentary before we do that if you're new to the Channel please subscribe and click that Bell to get in addition a reminder fool does not tell me what to tell you guys what videos to make what stocks to cover they're a great partner and check those guys out every single Wednesday we do what's called chart day and patreon Discord so we cover QQQ and 20 individual stock tickers that are chosen by community members so which I'll show you here in a minute now if you want to join us for Char day the community has been growing strong we've added close to 100 members this year so far and you have absolutely nothing to lose so give us a try so Tesla is one of the most popular stocks in our private community and we were buying this stock at much lower levels in Discord and back in the lows here in the beginning the year in January 2023 we said it could go as low as 81 dollars we had price Targets in here 101 was one of them it got to 101.81 I don't think a whole lot of people nailed it exactly at 101.81 but we were dollar cost averaging pretty heavy 125 and less even 150 and less and we have been accurate with the stock we cover it pretty much every week so obviously this opportunity has passed and this had a nice rip up doubled here from 101 to 217 Consolidated and down channel here popped again and a lot of this pop accelerated from that GM news that we heard about from Kathy Wood when you think about the Chargers and I'm going to give you some price levels here in a second but I want to just provide some quick thoughts on Sasa I own the stock I'm bullish on the company Long Term there are certainly risks with Tesla stock when you think of the valuation you think of Elon Musk if something happened to Elon Musk it would significantly impact this stock and I like this stock much lower I really preferred Tesla under 200 a share I'm not sure if you're going to see that or not but let me show you the price levels that could happen these are just possibilities and I'm not a financial advisor and I use technical analysis as a long-term investor to get better entry and exit points for long-term holds so it really needs to hold this 239 dollar level 239.40 now if you can hold that I think it could go higher I think upside possibility 300 or more this is a Fibonacci retracement you generally don't want to buy when it's up in the red and purple you want to buy it really down here in the green or the red on the bottom side so if you are buying here it's a bit of a Chase but with that said I think the stock could go much higher and if you're thinking long term even if Ron Baron or Kathy would have wrong and this is a thousand dollars a share that's still a 5x opportunity from these prices now if it breaks this 239 40 level right here you could see 222 dollars this first Red Line the second red line possibility here is 212 dollars and 10 cents and below that would be the R1 so these are fibonaccis here this is going to be your pivot Points and that R1 is 206.50 now this S3 support is way down here at 143 S2 at 1 60.
so there is some risk to the stock if you're buying it at these levels especially if the market sells off hard if we go into a recession but if you're bullishing this company and you're thinking long term you're going to hold it five or ten years it's really a stock that you want a dollar cost average in over time and think long term thanks for watching have a great rest of your day take care
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