저자: AllinCrypto진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인 반감기(하루 뒤)가 공급 감소로 강세 촉매이며 현재 조정은 뉴스 기반 공포일 뿐 기술적으로 상승추세 유지. 토탈2(비트코인 제외 알트코인 시총) 2~3조 달러 목표 가능, 제이미 다이먼의 비트코인 폰지 발언과 이란-이스라엘 뉴스 반박, 브래드 갈링하우스의 2024년 암호화폐 시장 2배 성장 전망에 동의. 이더리움 88달러→4.2만 달러 사례 등 조정 정상성 강조.
다듬은 글
good morning, afternoon or evening, ladies and gentlemen. All in Crypto here, and welcome back on this fabulous Friday for a jam-packed daily cryptocurrency market update. This one is indeed going to be a jam-packed one. At the time of recording we are about 15 hours away from the halving; by the time you're watching this, around 1 p.m. UK time, we'll be roughly 12 hours away. Tomorrow, the new supply of Bitcoin entering the market will be cut in half, and there's a strong fundamental narrative that really supports the things we're looking at technically, given that we're now in a bull market. Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market are still yet to see their time to shine, but that typically comes after the halving, and we'll be talking about that to start the video off.
As always, if you're new to this channel and finding yourself on my videos for the first time, don't forget to hit that subscribe button. We drop an update just like this one around 1 p.m. UK time every single day to help you step up to speed with the latest and greatest happening in the crypto space and the stock market too. That's what we're going to do in this video. We'll start by taking a look at the halving, then hear from Jamie Dimon reiterating his stance on Bitcoin. Even though I don't think Bitcoin is a Ponzi, I think the real Ponzi is the US dollar and the other fiat systems. I think they're a fabrication, a story we've been told, and we play this kind of game even though people don't view it as a game, because money is so important in all our lives. There's a direct link to freedom there: if you have a certain level of finance, you can do more things, and so on.
Next we'll look at what's going on with Israel and Iran. I'm not going to get deep into it, but whenever there's a pullback, people look for a reason. In yesterday's video we broadly outlined why the markets are pulling back, and I think it has much more to do with the readjustment in implied interest rates and the surge, if you will, in oil. All of that feeds into the dollar, which is leaning on risk. But when you look at the stock market, at Bitcoin, at whatever it is, it all looks very healthy and okay. So I think that has far more to do with things than what's taking place with Israel and Iran. I also want to say this, although I'm not doing myself any favors by saying it: take what you hear from Western media with a pinch of salt. We'll leave that comment there.
Before we dive into the Bitcoin chart, I want to play you a clip of Brad Garlinghouse, the Ripple CEO. I think he was on CNBC yesterday talking about how he believes this industry is going to double by the end of the year. That's very much in line with what we're looking at in terms of total market cap, and where we think Bitcoin is going. That would put the total around $5 trillion, which we think is very plausible. We've been persistent, despite this pullback, in telling people not to panic and in putting this pullback into perspective: this is what coins do in a bull market. They sell off 30 to 35%. We looked at Ethereum, and it journeyed from $88 all the way to $4,200. This is part and parcel of the crypto space. If you can't handle the heat, get out of the kitchen. It's hard to handle that heat, but that's why we try to be a persistent voice in what is a rough sea at times.
So let's start the video with where we are in relation to the halving, whatever the heck you want to call it. We're now about 14 to 15 hours away, and by the time you're watching this, about 12 hours away from the halving. This is where the supply of Bitcoin gets cut in half. This is really what's driven the markets. You can also say liquidity cycles, an overlay of the Bitcoin halving and liquidity cycles, which is very interesting, but this is great news: the supply of Bitcoin is going to be cut in half, and we've got real institutional demand for Bitcoin. There's a great fundamental narrative that is also very much accompanied by what we're looking at technically. We'll come to the charts in just a second, but this has me very excited. If we look at something like the Brave New Liquid Coin Index, which is probably the longest-dated chart we have for Bitcoin, on a monthly time frame, this is essentially the effect of the halving. In my opinion, the majority of the bull market is still absolutely to come.
Before we get into everything else, I want to dive into a clip of Jamie Dimon reiterating his stance on Bitcoin. I agree with one thing he says, just not the rest. "If you mean crypto like Bitcoin, I've always said it's a fraud. So no hope for it. If they think it's a currency, there's no hope for it. It's a Ponzi scheme, a public decentralized Ponzi. So I don't think there's much hope for Bitcoin as a currency. I don't think anybody would argue you could practically use Bitcoin as a currency, even with the Lightning Network. However, what it has proven to be is a flight to safety, a way to mitigate the, you know, real Ponzi scheme, which is the fiat systems." He's very cautious about attacking Bitcoin specifically rather than the broader crypto space or blockchain. You've got to remember JPMorgan is one of the banks propagating the system you currently have in the United States, so he's going to have a dog in that fight and will defend it. Again, in my opinion, the real Ponzi scheme is the US dollar. There's no doubt about that.
Let's talk about what's currently taking place. The cryptocurrency market saw a bit of a drop yesterday, and it was really tied to the news that Israel carried out limited strikes against Iran, according to sources. There have been sources from Iran saying there was an explosion, but it might not have been Israel. Where do I start? I'm not a geopolitical reporter, I don't know all the facts, so it's not my place to say much. What I can say is that you have to take what Western media propagates with a pinch of salt. I think we all agree on that, whether you sit on the left, the right, or the middle. There's a degree of bending the truth when it comes to Western media. I bring this up because people are using this as a reason for why the markets have sold off. It is a factor, no doubt, but is it the reason? What we looked at in yesterday's daily market update, which I encourage everybody to watch, dove into things technically: rates are now implied higher for longer, which is seeing the dollar do quite well and moving with oil. Rates are implied high for longer because of the back end of inflation, which is the whole reason the dollar went up and rates went up in the first place. That's leaning on risk, and Bitcoin is very correlated to risk. We also looked at the NASDAQ 3x leveraged ETF from WisdomTree yesterday, overlaid it with Bitcoin, and showed how they move in sync. So news is news, and that's why we target and stick to the charts, because the charts paint a very clear picture.
To reiterate before we move on to comments from Brad Garlinghouse, this is still very much an uptrend for the crypto space. We're showing the normality of the pullbacks we saw in the prior bull market, and this one is very much intact. Remember, there's still potential for a right shoulder to form that could see crypto go to $3.7 trillion. This is the total excluding Bitcoin, and it's still very much an uptrend, with pullbacks within that trend. Bitcoin looks very similar. This is an uptrend, yet people are bearish, and prematurely so, because they're following the news and reacting emotionally rather than assessing technically where we are.
Now I'll dive into a clip, which I'm going to speed up, of Brad Garlinghouse talking about the industry more broadly: regulation, and his prediction for where this space goes this year. I largely agree with him. We'll do a video on Ripple later on. XRP, for me, is one of those cryptos I'd rather get caught with than without, just in case it makes that 2017-style move, which I think there's a potential structure to suggest it may. But it's not something I'm overly invested in. It's not a large part of my portfolio, less than 5%, round about 5%, and I'm happy to take that bet. I'd rather own coins that are going to do well or better, potentially, rather than hoping for a spike that may or may not occur.
"Brad, first, assess where we are in this market, because crypto's up huge in just the last couple of weeks, right?" "It's been up. It came down a little bit this past weekend, but if you step back over the last six months, Bitcoin's up about 250%. I think you're going to continue to see tailwinds, partly because of the ETFs that have been approved, which you and I spoke about at Davos, but also the upcoming halving, which is imminent." "It's a great point. The ETF introduction really broadened the market in terms of potential users, and people wanted to get in on it, so they bought an ETF to do so. But you recently predicted the crypto market will double in size to $5 trillion by the end of 2024. That's a big prediction for just this year." "I don't even feel it's that big a prediction when you step back. Like any market, this is driven by supply and demand. You have decreasing supply for a whole bunch of reasons, the Bitcoin halving being an important one. You have increasing demand, the ETF being a key part of that. And I think people are realizing that crypto plays a role as an asset. The $2.5 trillion market may be a little less than that now, so I'm basically just predicting it's going to double by the end of the year, and if anything, I probably underpredicted it."
I'll probably do a video on Ripple and XRP later today. What I really want to say, guys, is have a fantastic Friday. I wish people the absolute best when it comes to the cryptocurrency space, and I really do agree with Brad that this space is going to double and then some. We looked at total2, and people are bearish, and it's so annoying. I'm so sick of the bears, who by the way have been wrong for the past two years now, or since we got back into the market in 2023, and every time there's a blip they come back. I just don't understand it. There's an amazing opportunity here, and it's about understanding how to achieve it, or how to embrace it, without getting shaken out by likely players who manipulate the market or do certain things. Understand where you are from a technical perspective, not a news-driven one. If your investment thesis and your emotions are driven by the news, and it's designed to be that way, you're going to have a much harder time than somebody like myself, or what we do on this channel, or what my patrons do by following along. We're emotional as human beings, but you need to learn to deal with that, have a perspective on the market, and be able to harness it. All of the season is still yet to come. We've really yet to see Bitcoin dominance roll over.
That's all I've got for you guys. I want to know your thoughts in the comment section. Happy halving for tomorrow. I'll be making a daily market update, hopefully from home. That's all for me. Have a fantastic Friday, guys. Love and leave you, and see you all in the next one. Thanks a lot for watching.
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