저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 혁명은 초기 단계이며 2차·3차 파생(소프트웨어, 사이버보안, 인프라, 전력)으로 확산 중이라는 낙관론. 나스닥 25,000~30,000을 12~24개월 내 논의 가능하다고 주장. 애플은 AI 수익화로 주당 75~100달러 추가 가치, 구글은 극적 반전, 테슬라는 자율주행·로봇 기대로 2026년 호재, 아마존은 AWS 가치 25~30% 추가 상승 여력, 마이크로소프트·오라클은 과도한 하락으로 30~40% 상승 여력이라 주장. 오라클 실적 발표를 주요 이벤트로 언급하며 리스크보다 기회로 평가.
다듬은 글
Look, the reality is it's still 10:30 p.m. that AI party that goes to 4 a.m. Because look, in my view, when you look at this AI revolution, it's now going to the second, third, fourth derivatives, software, cyber security, infrastructure, power, and look, I think the bears, they're just going to continue to watch this party from the outside looking through the windows.
Is it the hyperscalers that are going to continue to to lead uh the AI trade or are we going to see more diversification into other layers? The truth is that the AI party that lasts until 4:00 a.m. is still going on at 10:30 p.m. Because in my opinion, the second, third, and fourth descendants of this AI revolution are software, cyber security, infrastructure, and electricity.
and see. I believe the bears will merely keep seeing this celebration from outside via the windows. Will the hyperscalers still dominate the AI market in 2026? Or will there be more diversification into other layers? Indeed, it all began with Jensen and Nvidia, the godfather of AI, and is now returning to China.
For them, it's just another pop the champagne moment. However, you look at Microsoft Hyperscalers and everything that transpired at Alphabet Google. That has truly been a remarkable turnaround tale, isn't it? In my opinion, the London taxi driver was pessimistic about Google at the start of the year.
It's going to spread use cases, which is why you're seeing this now. And I believe you're just beginning to notice that in Amazon as well because data this I believe that as the derivative beneficiaries of AI proliferate Messier by Palanteer MongoDB and Snowflake will become the norm. How long do you believe this tech bull run will last Dan considering that thesis on the derivatives?
Another 2 years. Another 2 years. I believe that to be conservative. Yes. In the next 12, 18 or 24 months, I think we'll be discussing NASDAQ 25,000 and 30,000. This is the fourth industrial revolution. You see, you'll hear all the similarities as I did when I covered tech stocks in the late 1990s. Its oranges and apples.
We are discussing autonomous humanoid robotics. The revolution in consumer AI is still in its early stages and will pass through. That in my opinion is the reason behind Apple's significant improvements and the current diffusing of tensions between the United States and China in terms of this AI trade that is bullish.
Dan, what kind of pulls back that bull run? I suppose in terms of 2 years, you know, in these market cycles, what kind of thing throws it off balance? Yes. Look, there will be times when we'll be at our wit's end. I mean, you're discussing deepseek moments, liberation day, and the US China relationship, you know, in terms of some of the back and forth and is it possible for them to enter the US or is it possible for them to enter China?
But see, those white knuckle moments only make it possible to buy the AI winners and that's still our opinion. Whether you want to call it permabullish, the truth is that I believe investors are underestimating the size and scope of this tech trade. Carol will interrupt the talk. Let's discuss particular stocks here.
Dan, you claim that 2026 will be the year of the AI revolution and that one particular instance will be a gamecher. Therefore, I know you adore Apple. Give specifics about your expectations for the business in the upcoming year. Look, I believe that Certino is undergoing significant transformation in terms of what we're witnessing from a cultural standpoint.
They're really tearing off the bandage. You've witnessed the necessary shift at the top, don't you think? That I believe has contributed to the frustration. I felt like Michael J. Fox in Back to the Future during the most recent events at Apple Park because they're just not going anywhere. It's all about Google Gemini now.
That will be a crucial collaboration. In the end, a paid subscription service will most likely be available when they begin in the spring. Additionally, you have the world's largest install base. For Apple, monetization will be crucial. The Certino 350 is at the heart of the consumer AI revolution. However, if they do this correctly, I believe you might have a four in front of it.
When you start calculating the monetization of AI and you add up the figures, I believe that's where we see Apple going in the end. As this all plays out, AI adds $75 to $100 per share to Apple in my opinion. And you see it returns to Google. Correct? 6 or 9 months ago, everyone thought AI would destroy their business model.
With their back to the wall, they are defending themselves. Look at it now, don't you? Additionally, I believe it simply illustrates how swiftly this trend could change. It's all open universe. You know, rent is paid by everyone else. Look at Alphabet now. They've changed a lot. Although there is a lot of progress being made there.
Open Eye and Chat GPT are still at the top of the AI arms race, but the main reason they're investing is that you're expanding the stack all around just like you're seeing with Jensen and Nvidia. It doesn't seem to me like a warning sign for circular financing. I mean, this is an arms race from software to chips, you know.
Additionally, there will be more than one winner. There will be a lot of winners in this. Additionally, I believe it supports our belief that the tech bull market is spreading to other tech equity sectors. Is Open Eyee's trillion dollar market capitalization still appropriate? That's definitely cautious in my opinion, considering where they may really go and what the statistics might be if it goes public over the coming years.
Then you start to consider spending between $3 and $4 trillion over the following few years and between $4 and $5 trillion over the next 5 or 6 years. And look, the United States is ahead of China in technology for the first time in 30 years. I mean, you've discussed it. It's crucial. The United States lagged far behind for many years.
You are now leading the AI revolution for the first time. Following that, we discuss chips, models, and applications like Gemini, but we also discuss the use of AI. And when we consider it, we frequently think of Tesla with its promises of autonomous vehicles, robots, etc. In 2026, many investors will be considering Tesla in the context of ongoing Chinese competition in EVs as well as those promising areas autonomy and robotics.
Significant progress is also being made in China. Given some of these competitive issues, what do you think will happen to Tesla next year? I believe it will be a fantastic year for Tesla. In my opinion, everything is moving in the right direction right now, especially with Musk serving as CEO during a war and the compensation package heavily emphasizing autonomous and robotics.
That's the future. The Tesla narrative alone makes autonomous worth a trillion dollars. Look, is there competition now? You've witnessed it in China, of course. However, I don't think anyone can equal what Tesla is going to accomplish on a global scale, particularly with the robo taxi buildout and where I see them, particularly with regard to Optimus and humanoid robots.
Look, I believe that the two best physical AI companies on the market are Tesla and Nvidia. As businesses eventually migrate to the cloud, they remain the main beneficiaries on Azure, particularly in the area of artificial intelligence. I believe that both Microsoft and Oracle have seen significant declines in their stock prices.
That seems excessive to me. Look, I believe there is a 30 to 40% upside from here. Investors, in my opinion, are not fully anticipating the nature of the AI penetration narrative. Additionally, I believe that Nadella is playing a different game when it comes to monetization. Jensen is engaging in a distinct game.
The distinction after all is evident when you start looking at some of these CEOs and what Karp is doing at Palanteer. Furthermore, I don't think anyone gains more than what we observe in Redmond. Can Amazon compete with such competitors? Yes, as they interact with them in the sandbox, anthropic will be a major benefit.
Look, Yasi works for Azamine. It was obvious that they had a lot of problems with cost cutting and structural concerns when he took over Amazon. They are now beginning to acclimatize to life at sea. That is in my opinion a significant advantage. As we spoke with Google, I believe that the total of the components at Amazon, the AWS component might add conservatively an additional 25 to 30%.
However, it supports the idea that you can't see it as it is done on the hypers. You have to consider the fact that only 3% of American businesses have adopted AI, very little in Asia, Europe, and former China. With the Middle East in particular, sovereigns are just getting started. That illustrates our current situation.
As I mentioned before, the AI revolution is still in its early stages. Allow me to introduce you to this week. After the close tomorrow, Oracle will release a sizable set of numbers. Additionally, it appears that Oracle has become a means for investors to test the bare thesis on technology. You may look at Oracle bonds here, or CDS, if you're concerned about the tech trade.
How much do you believe Oracle could prove to be a risk event this week for the tech industry and larger markets? You see, the Bears will do any kind of mathematical acrobatics, right? In a packed theater, yell fire. In comparison to where I see that stock now, I believe Oracle is a table pounder. And when you consider OpenAI, you think, well, now good is bad because you're associated with them.
I disagree. I say, "Would you mind having an excessive amount of Peter Luger steak?" The point is that I see their actual involvement with Open IIA as beneficial. Additionally, I believe Oracle is in a better position than anyone else when it comes to the stack, and I wouldn't bet against Ellison.
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