저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 비트코인이 약 27,500달러 부근에서 지지를 받으며 횡보·상승 가능성을 보지만, 연준 금리 인하 시점과 SEC 대응 등 불확실성을 함께 경고한다. 비트코인 시장 흐름: 비트코인은 주간 저점 26,000달러대 이후 약 2,000달러 반등해 27,600달러 부근에 있다. 200일선 지지와 27,000달러 지지가 확인되며, 헤드앤숄더 패턴 무효화 가능성을 언급했다. 진행자는 18,000~20,000달러 박스권 대비 현재 가격을 긍정적으로 본다. SEC 대응 이슈: 법원이 5월 4일 SEC에 10일 내 답변을 명령했고, 코인베이스의 질의(가상자산이 증권인지 등 40~50개 문항)에 SEC가 응답하지 않은 이유를 설명하라는 것이다. 답변 기한은 5월 14일로 보며 당일 또는 수일 내 나올 수 있다고 봤다. SEC가 협조적이지 않다는 평가다. 코인베이스 경영진 보상: 2022년 CEO 브라이언 암스트롱 총보상 750만 달러(옵션 5,700만 달러 별도 제외). 주가는 2022년 약 80% 하락했는데도 보상이 높았다고 비판하며, 잉여현금흐름 적자 16.5억 달러를 지적했다. 밈코인·AI도지: 페페(PEPE)는 최근 한 달간 급등했다. 프리세일 중인 AI Doge는 협찬 관계임을 밝히며 조기 매수를 권했다. 협찬 사실을 고려해 볼 필요가 있다. 자금 흐름: CoinShares 보고서 기준 4주 연속 디지털자산 펀드 유출이 이어졌으며, 대부분 비트코인에서 빠져나갔다. 진행자는 이를 정확히 같은 규모의 반대 방향 베팅(숏 등)으로 해석하는 관점을 제시했다. 개인정보 보호: 코인 보유를 노출하지 말고 콜드월렛을 쓰라고 강조하며, 노드VPN을 홍보했다(협찬). 금리 전망: 다음 FOMC 동결 확률 88%, 7월 26일 회의에서 동결 60%·인하 33% 가격 반영. 9월 25bp 인하 기대가 우세하다. 연준 인사들의 매파 발언이 이어지면 변동성이 나올 수 있다고 봤다. 인하 시점은 2024년 말로 언급되나 시장은 연내 인하를 상당 부분 반영 중이라 진단했다. 마이클 버리 포트폴리오: 2023년 1분기 13F 기준 은행주(뉴욕커뮤니티뱅코프, 캐피털원, 웰스파고, 퍼스트리퍼블릭, 웨스턴얼라이언스, 헌팅턴 등) 비중이 높았다. 진행자는 그가 빠르게 사고파는 스타일이라 포트폴리오를 그대로 따라가는 것은 신중해야 한다고 조언했다. 과거 버리는 크립토를 거품으로 비판했다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 단기 횡보 속 상방 가능성을 보면서도 장기 하락 사이클은 언젠가 온다고 보고 DCA(분할 매수)를 권했다. Paul Tudor Jones는 비트코인이 인플레이션 방어 자산이라 보유 입장을 유지한다고 전했다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry is selling he he just came out with his portfolio for q1 I want to go through that talk about what he bought what he sold because he has definitely talked about crypto in the past saying basically it was a huge bubble that was all going to come Crashing Down now he is buying another bubble so I want to talk about that I also want to go through what's happening in the market right now including following up on the sec's uh their date that they had to give some response to coinbase by so we're going to talk about that if you don't mind please hit subscribe underneath the video Turn on that Bell notification so you know right when I post future videos also we're in the new house let me know what you think about this setup still working on it a little bit just got in two days ago and still unpacking stuff but hopefully this will do for the future and I do want to thank AI Doge and nordvpn as well which we'll talk more about that later but let's take a look at the overall market so as you can see here Bitcoin is right around 27 500.
it did fall down but low 26 000 last week uh towards the end of the week just for a very brief period and now it's been moving up it's up about two thousand dollars from that that bottom there bouncing basically off the 200 day now over the weekend I made a video talking about how we were supposed to hear back from the SEC basically a U.S court ordered them on May 4 to respond to allegations within 10 days basically uh coinbase had made a petition saying that asking for clarification to about 40 or 50 questions I believe it was from you know is this a security to uh just giving some more clarity in crypto in general now the SEC didn't respond at all to that and this 10 days that they were given is basically to respond and try to elaborate why they didn't even respond to the petition so it's not that they had to respond to the petition in 10 days it said they had to give a reason for why they hadn't responded to the petition it's just crazy right the Hoops that we had to jump through here but that was 10 days that they were given and they were they were given that notice on the fourth so I made a video saying Hey we'll here by May 14th now I did talk to my dad he said that over the weekend these government entities don't work the courts don't work so most likely that was just sloppy or it just got pushed back another day or something like that so we may hear today now who knows some of these could have been uh or the SEC could just try to elongate that they could push it back they could not respond who knows what the SEC really could do here but they're supposed to give a response uh as of yesterday so it could be today it could be a few days from now it sounds like the SEC is not really willing to play ball at this point it's not like they can't pay fines either right they have plenty of money now something interesting when I was trying to find this news because they did not respond if in case I didn't say that they did not give any kind of clarification like they're supposed to buy yesterday I noticed this this article talking about the the pay of these different employees and it says Armstrong's total competition compensation the CEO Brian Armstrong for the whole of 2022 was 7.5 million he received a flat salary of 1 million while the remaining was characterized as a security and legal cost now they did not include the options Awards as well 57 million dollars in options now last year the the stock did not do well I mean it's up a lot this year which just because the whole Market's up and riskier stocks are up but in 2022 the stock price basically went from 250 and went all the way down to 37.
so the stock went down 80 percent and he got paid 70 million dollars I think that's a little bit too high let me know your thoughts but this is something I look for when I look at companies that I'm buying I don't want them to have huge amounts of stock based compensation when they're not performing well right they're losing billions of dollars a year they had negative free cash flow of 1.65 billion and yet employees got paid double what they got paid the year before so just something to pay attention to right there you know coinbase a lot of people think of them as white Knights but keep in mind they still are taking huge huge paydays now this is the Twitter page of the chief legal officer he's the one that kind of announced that they were going to go after the SEC in this way that they should have news in 10 days so I followed them just so that I can see any future updates and I'll let you know if we can update here in the next day or so now Pepe has had a kind of a crazy last month as we know spiking in price now if you bought even two weeks ago you'd still be up a hundred percent just about better than every other crypto right outside of a few Choice meme coins so this one has done extremely well over the weekend even it fell down and it went up a hundred percent in a few hours now it's down a little bit now one coin that I think could do well as well that's in pre-sale is AI Doge now I did a full video on this over the weekend if you want to see that video you can check it out they are a partner of the channel so just want to throw it out there that their pre-sale looks like it's going to be ending pretty soon they're they're uh price is moving up every every day that you don't buy in so if you want to check them out you can now Bitcoin in general is kind of in this head and shoulders pattern but we have some pretty strong support right around this 26 000 uh to twenty seven thousand dollar area especially around 27 000 where you've seen it bounce off a couple of times and now we're starting to move up right we're at twenty seven thousand six hundred so this may invalidate The Head and Shoulders or uh may move right up I don't know if that's technically invalidation if we if we don't come all the way down after the last shoulder but we couldn't move right back up and continue moving up I think consolidation is good I mean remember we were between 18 and 20 000 for months now we're up at twenty seven thousand twenty eight thousand we can't really complain too much but it could be a interesting buying in price now some people are still selling right when we look at the multi-asset and we'll get we'll get to Michael burry here in a second the uh coin shares investor report shows what large investors are doing and you kind of want to follow the money right see what they're buying what they're selling they just continue to dump you can see this fourth week in a row of pretty large outflows a lot coming out of Bitcoin some coming up short Bitcoin which is kind of like an uh the opposite of what this is so instead of you know negative 10 million dollars coming out of the market I kind of think of it as plus 10 million so it's like a 20 million dollar swing but it does mean that less people are playing crypto as well so it could uh it couldn't be thought of in a different way from that too that's just kind of how I always think about it so in that case it would be like negative 34 million instead of negative 54 million now over the last year we've talked about how you need to protect yourself by using Cold Storage wallets we've talked about that because of so many exchanges blowing up now today I want to talk to you very briefly about something else that you should get to protect yourself and that's a VPN so I did not use a VPN for the longest time I just had my information out on the web I thought who really cares but then once I got into crypto you notice that I stopped talking about how much I was worth how much crypto I had that kind of thing because I didn't want people to know because with real estate or money in the bank or stocks you can't really steal that very easily but if you get held up at gunpoint and you have some crypto on a hot storage wallet you can be in trouble you can see here I'm unprotected right now I live here in Holland Michigan I don't want you guys to know that here's my IP address here's my ISP I I don't want this out on the web but people can get that information if I'm not protected now I can do something as easy as this click France and then I'm protected if I reload the page this is great for anyone trading in crypto because you don't want people to know where you are what you're doing what you're doing on the web and what websites you're using we know especially with some of these exchanges right they don't have your best interests in mind all the time so we want to protect our information and it can be really useful for other things as well not just that but you can get on websites that you wouldn't normally be able to get on also one when you're overseas you can get back on websites that you can't get overseas I've been traveling even just something as simple as watching a show I was gone for one month and I could not watch a show that I was totally hooked on for the entire month unless I had VPN and I had VPN at the time now with this link underneath the video because I am sponsored by the nordvpn right now you can get a 30-day money-back guarantee and when you sign up for a year you can get three months off if you sign up for two years you can get four months off so I would get that it's three dollars a month and it protects you during the next Bull Run I think it if you're not doing this and you're not having a cold storage wallet device you're really doing it wrong I think you are opening yourself up to losing big in the next Bull Run so check that out underneath the video now here's the last thing I want to cover the market is pricing and rate Cuts so at the next meeting we're pricing in an 88 chance that we have zero rate hikes we'll have to see how the coming inflation uh rolls in because I believe we get that next CPI reading a day or two before the next rate hike but then July 26th the Market's expecting a 33 chance that we actually see rate cuts and a 60 chance that they stayed the same then September meeting most people are expecting that 25 cut now this week a lot of the FED members are speaking and the market might take that and uh hear them speaking pretty uh hawkish and send the market back down now today it's looking a little bit green but be ready because there could be some volatility in case they come out really a hard stance saying hey we're not going to increase rates but we're also not going to decrease rates I I don't think they would pull that out of a question that they are going to increase rates but I've heard some of the FED speakers already say that they're not looking at decreasing rates until late 2024 but the Market's pricing it in like three-fourths of the way through this year so we could see some volatility from that now I want to take a second because Michael burry just announced his uh new portfolio actually if you didn't announce it but it came out that he had to send it to the SEC because he has enough money under management now a couple months ago January 31st 2023 Michael Brewery posted on Twitter the word sell no other context the Tweet was deleted and then a couple months later on March 30th Michael burry said I was wrong to say so he was wrong now a lot of people look at what he's buying they want to know because he was right about the big short right he was right about the financial crisis he made a lot of money he's made some other good calls in the past it's kind of a mysterious character right he has a Twitter page with a million followers and he will post one tweet at a time maybe a couple weeks apart and then delete them so everyone pays attention to him but when we look at what he owned fourth quarter let's take a look Geo Group Inc there's 25 of his portfolio so EU is highly highly weighted in this black knight Inc 20 coherent coherent Corp 11 Alibaba 9.5 jd.com nine percent I believe if I remember I I I should have looked at this beforehand but I believe these are prisons I could be wrong about one point it was very hot heavy into prisons now his portfolio is totally different so he has more Holdings he has a more spread out and he bought a lot of banks so let's take a look jd.com and again this is from March 31st so a day after he posted this that he was wrong to say sell he post uh he had these Holdings jd.com 10 of his portfolio Alibaba 9.6 are almost the same as the quarter before same waiting Signet Jewelers Limited I haven't really heard of them nine percent New York Community Bank Corp so Regional Bank Zoom Video Communications so obviously we all know what that is Capital One Financial Liberty Latin America Stillwater LTD I'll just go down a little bit though Wells Fargo Western Alliance uh we have pack West Bancorp First Republic Bank Huntington and a couple other companies so he was heavy into the banks look at this New York Community Bancorp Capital One Financial Wells Fargo Western Alliance Bancorp and then as we said First Republic Bank Pac West and Huntington a lot of regional Banks a lot of risky Banks I don't know if we should pay attention to what he's been buying I mean he he pretty much timed this exactly wrong now I don't know when he got in he's probably already out of some of these but a lot of these companies have not done well recently it's hard to it's hard to follow the bury portfolio because he does jump in and out very quickly very heavily so he could have actually made money on all these Banks honestly you could have swung them bought them at the at a local bottom sold them when they're up 10 20 percent I don't know what he did exactly but he went fishing for some banks and the banks have gone down some of these have gone bankrupt since then or been taken over by the government some have had rumors that they're going to be taken over by the government so I want to cover that because a lot of people like to know what he's buying honestly with looking at his portfolio I'm not so sure I'd be trying to follow what he does so let me know your thoughts on that underneath the video he's been pretty strong uh against crypto in the past saying again it was just basically a bubble that was gonna pop that there are huge valuations now since then crypto has come down but I could tell you that too when we're at the 60 70 000 Mark and we know eventually we'll hit a bear market right I think most of us think that we're going to go down at some point with all our Holdings right we just don't know when so it's easy enough to call that the Market's gonna crash like he's been doing for 15 years but you're going to be wrong all the time and if you're not exposed to the market you're going to lose out a lot you're gonna lose out a lot of the time which is why you know people always are always get worried when people say that there's a recession coming but we should all know that there's always a recession coming question is when and we will never know that so that's why it's a good idea probably to DCA into the market Paul Tudor Jones also just said about Bitcoin that it's one of the only things in the world probably the only thing in the world that can't be that can't have more made of it can't be inflated so he's gonna stick with it let me know if you're sticking with Bitcoin down in the comment section thank you so much again check out the links to nordvpn and to AI Doge underneath the video and I'll see in the next one bye
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