저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
Chamath는 자산시장(주식)의 거품이 빠지는 중이며 트럼프 정책으로 자산가 부가 추가로 줄어들 것이라 주장한다. 다음 타깃은 주택시장으로, 패니메이·프레디맥 구조개편과 국채금리 하락으로 주택가격이 30~40% 하락해 중산층 진입이 쉬워질 것이라 본다. David Friedberg는 사회보장기금(OASI)이 국채에만 투자되어 S&P500(연 ~11%) 대비 수익이 낮았다며 주식 투자 전환을 제안하고, 2032년 고갈 전 대책 필요성을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
I think there's one big shoe left to drop. I think we've started the process of really, really taking a bunch of heat out of the asset markets like equities. So, we've taken trillions and trillions of dollars of wealth away. I think we're going to take trillions more. But, the next big market, and this is actually where Andrew, to your point, we reestablish some hope, I think for a lot of people, is we are going to whack the housing market.
What we are doing is we are unwittingly propping up with American taxpayer dollars the US housing market. Why is that bad? It is locking an inordinate number of people from that first critical step that actually makes them feel like they are winning and they're on their way to achieving their dreams.
For over a decade, financial markets have been running on borrowed time. Ever since the great financial crisis, those with access to cheap debt and financial influence have ridden an unprecedented wave of asset inflation. Stocks soared, real estate prices skyrocketed, and those who could leverage the system accumulated wealth at a pace far beyond what a normal economy would allow.
But, this era of artificial prosperity is starting to crack. The unwinding has begun, and it's exposing a brutal truth. Most of what we've considered growth was nothing more than an illusion built on government intervention and reckless monetary policy. In the latest episode of the All-In podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and comedian Andrew Schulz lay out a stark reality, one that many have felt, but few have been able to fully articulate.
The American dream, once defined by home ownership, upward mobility, and financial stability, has been slipping away. Asset holders have disproportionately benefited from policies that have kept markets artificially inflated, while the middle and working class have struggled to even gain a foothold.
But, the system is now undergoing a painful reset. Stock prices are deflating, and the next domino to fall may be the housing market, potentially opening the door for millions who have been priced out for years. As interest rates shift and economic power realigns, some will suffer, while others will find new opportunities.
What does this mean for the future? Will this be the long-overdue correction that levels the playing field, or will new forms of financial manipulation keep the cycle going? And in a world where centralized financial structures continue to fail, could decentralized alternatives like Bitcoin become the new foundation for wealth preservation?
As we bring you clips from this highly insightful conversation, please take a little time to like and share the video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more videos like this. Everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the channel's growth.
Thanks, and enjoy the video. I've been saying it for months. Nobody cares about the stock market, nor should we. And the reason is because we, people who own these assets, have overly benefited more than we've deserved for the last 15 years. Ever since the great financial crisis in the United States, people who, as Jason said, could cozy up, and by the way, Jason, I think the the the claim that you made, which is is is severely true for how from 2007 up until now has played out.
Because if you look under all the programs, if you could have lobbied Obama in those critical years of the GFC, Yep. Oh my god, the amount of money that was No, because we we took interest rates literally to zero. Anybody like us who could have gone and gotten levered up and gone into the stock market was richly rewarded.
And the problem is we left everybody else behind. And I think the great thing about Trump is he is going to reset that. He's going to take a lot of wealth away from asset holders. You're seeing it every day. 500 billion, 500 billion. There is no sympathy. I think it's fantastic. I think we've started the process of really, really taking a bunch of heat out of the asset markets like equities.
So, we've taken trillions and trillions of dollars of wealth away. I think we're going to take trillions more. But, the next big market, and this is actually where Andrew, to your point, we reestablish some hope, I think for a lot of people, is we are going to whack the housing market. It's just going to happen.
And let me just say something about that. happen, Chamath? Explain it, cuz there's 7 million homes that we still need to build to to service just current demand. How does that actually happen with the supply-demand problem in your mind? There are a bunch of mechanisms that have to get cleaned up right now.
Okay. One mechanism is that there are a whole host of mortgages that are basically being propped up. They It was a program that's that really got out of control under the Biden administration. Nick, you can find this article. It's in the Wall Street Journal. We are going to figure out how to get these two government-related agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, out of what's called conservatorship.
And these are the folks that are responsible for essentially wrapping guarantees around mortgages so that the mortgage market can function. The details don't particularly matter that much. But, the point is that what we are doing is we are unwittingly propping up with American taxpayer dollars the US housing market.
Why is that bad? It is locking an inordinate number of people from that first critical step that actually makes them feel like they are winning and they're on their way to achieving their dreams, which is can I make a deposit on a home and then can I live this out? And you have these artificially inflated prices all around the country as a result of this.
So, I think this next wave is deeply beneficial to the middle class, which is there is no reason. Like you guys see it. When you read the Wall Street Journal, I think it is the dumbest in the world when I see an article which is like this house just is $65 million on 0.4 acres in some rando place in Miami.
I'm like, what is this? This makes no sense. And so, when you re-rationalize a bunch of equity values and you re-rationalize the cost of a home, I think what you're going to do is you're going to allow a lot more people to find a more reasonable way to enter the housing market. And I do think that that's a really big step in allowing them to feel like they're part of the dream.
So, you lower asset prices, you can own some stocks, maybe you own a 401k, or if you've never had a 401k, but your employer offers it, for the first time it may actually make financial sense to put a small amount of it in there. You've never been able to own a home, all of a sudden home prices are whacked 30 or 40%.
You're able to do that. Because of how Trump goes after the budget, when his rate of borrowing for the US government goes down, your mortgage rate goes down. Now, all of a sudden you can enter in because home prices are less and you can actually get a mortgage. They may all seem very random, but they can come together in giving 50, 60 million people a shot that they have been screaming since the great financial crisis they don't have.
The cracks in the system run deeper than just stock prices and housing markets. The illusion of prosperity wasn't just built on asset inflation. It was reinforced by policies that quietly siphoned wealth from the many to benefit the few. While the financial elite leveraged zero interest rates and government backing to accumulate unprecedented wealth, everyday Americans found themselves locked out of the very opportunities that once defined success.
For decades, the promise was simple. Work hard, save diligently, and you'll be rewarded with financial security. But, what happens when the system itself is designed to ensure that wealth flows upwards? The housing crisis is just one symptom of a much larger problem, one that extends into the very institutions meant to support the middle class, including Social Security and government entitlement programs.
While speaking during the podcast, David Friedberg exposes another disturbing element of the problem. Social Security, the safety net meant to ensure financial stability in retirement, has been fundamentally broken by poor policy choices. Instead of allowing Americans to benefit from the growth of the economy, their hard-earned money was locked into low-yield government bonds, while the wealthy capitalized on booming stock markets.
Had Social Security been properly invested, the US could have built the largest sovereign wealth fund in history, one that benefited all Americans, not just those with private retirement accounts. This is the hidden mechanism that has fueled inequality for decades. The average worker was never given a fair chance to participate in the same financial opportunities as the elite, ensuring that wealth accumulation remained exclusive to those with the right access.
And now, as Social Security nears insolvency, the solution being proposed is more of the same. Either cut benefits or print more money, both of which only exacerbate the divide. Friedberg presents a simpler solution, which he believes will erase decades of terrible policies and give every American equal opportunities.
I did an analysis of I wasn't sure if I should put it out, but I'll tell you guys the numbers. The US Social Security program is meant to be kind of the retirement program for folks that don't have access to private retirement accounts, okay? And this program was set up in the 1930s after the Great Depression, and there's a trust fund, the OASI, which is the the fund that they invest the capital in.
So, every year we all put money in with our Social Security taxes out of our paychecks, goes in there, and it gets invested. You know what it gets invested in? Mhm. It gets invested in one thing, US Treasuries, which have averaged about 4.8% return since the beginning of the program per year. Meanwhile, what if you put it into the market?
Meanwhile, the S&P has been averaging 11%. So, here's the math. If in 1971, which was the year that we went off the gold standard in the United States, if we invested the Social Security trust fund in the S&P, the balance of the Social Security trust fund today would be $15 trillion. That would be roughly 1/3 of the value of the total S&P 500, which would be jointly owned by all Americans who took their capital.
Now, here's what's up. What's up is that the middle class people who had access to private retirement accounts benefited by buying the S&P 500 and the wealthy were able to access it. So, all of the equity value that accrues from American enterprise and the prosperity of the American system accrued to the people that had access to the private accounts.
Meanwhile, the people that only had access to the public accounts got stuck owning treasuries. Today, the Social Security Trust Fund has $2.7 trillion balance and based on the outflows and inflows, it's going to go bankrupt in 2032. That means Social Security is either going to get cut or the Fed's going to print a ton of money to keep Social Security benefit Retirement age goes up a little bit.
Yeah, there's a lot of levers. Yeah. Wow. So, I did the math. If you assume that the S&P 500 continues to grow at 10 and 1/2% a year on average, there's ups and downs and sure there could be basically drawdowns and all these other sorts of things. But, here's important point. We could put about $500 billion in the trust fund today and it will not go bankrupt again and it will continue to grow every year.
And then, all Americans have participation in American enterprise. And importantly, this becomes the world's largest sovereign wealth fund ever. You don't need a separate sovereign wealth fund. We already have one. It's called It's called the Social It's called the Social Security Trust Fund. And what we've done is we've totally mismanaged it and I went back to try and understand why this is the case.
Why have we only ever bought treasuries? Early on, the US needed someone to loan money. So, they basically forced the citizens to loan the government money in the form of treasuries. But, today the Social Security Trust Fund owns only less than 10% about 8% of the total treasury bonds outstanding. The rest are owned by the Fed and foreign investors and private investors and others that want to own it.
So, why are we forcing all the American citizens Yeah, we're propping it up for no reason. And and we're we're discouraging access. So, basically we've created through the Social Security system, we've created the deep inequity we see in this country. If instead we had allowed the Social Security system to invest in the S&P 500, to buy American enterprises, to fund American businesses, then every American would be wealthy and that middle class that uniquely participated by basically arbitraging the market where they forced the treasury bond yields on the poor and they got to take access to the equity yields would have not happened.
Imagine every American when when when you get your Social Security statement today, all it tells you is a dollar amount and how much you're going to get in the future. Imagine if you logged in and you got to see all the businesses you own a piece of. And by the way, we can solve both the sovereign wealth fund question and the Social Security Trust Fund question.
Every dollar that's going into these sovereign wealth fund ideas or if they come to fruition or in my opinion and obviously I haven't spoken to facts about this, but the crypto fund and all this other sort of stuff, every dollar that should go into the Social Security Trust Fund. And that Social Security Trust Fund should be for the benefit of all Americans and it should be equities.
It should be ownership. It should be participation. The American dream enabled us all to succeed and it should enable everyone else to participate in shares and equity in American enterprise that can come to market. So, it's not about a thousand bucks when you're born, it's about an ongoing participation, putting your money in and having that money allocated in a way that America that smart and wealthy Americans get to allocate it, which is into owning shares in businesses.
Just to give you guys some other statistics. 60% of middle class households net worth is in their home. Only 10 10% of their net worth is in owning the S&P 500 in in index funds or whatever in their retirement accounts. And so, by creating this American dream around housing and allowing the federal government to provide loans on housing, we've increased the cost of housing.
We've created a very like destructive housing bubble in the sense that it has reduced people's exposure to participation in productive value creation. And that's through the ownership of businesses. Instead, we've stored our net worth in a house. And in order to keep the economy and the social structure stable, we've created policies that allow the continuation of the growth in the value of houses so people feel like their net worth is incrementing.
The American dream, once a promise of opportunity and prosperity, has been steadily eroded by decades of financial mismanagement and policy decisions that have overwhelmingly favored the wealthy. The past decade of artificial growth, fueled by low interest rates, reckless monetary expansion, and a financial system rigged in favor of those with access to capital, is now unraveling.
But, as painful as this reset may be, it also presents an opportunity. The question is, will we use this moment to rebalance the system or will we allow yet another cycle of financial manipulation to take hold? The cracks in Social Security, the housing market, and the broader financial system are symptoms of a deeper issue, one that can't be fixed by short-term government interventions.
A true solution would require a fundamental shift in how wealth is distributed, how markets operate, and how everyday people are given access to real financial growth. Whether that means restructuring entitlement programs, reforming monetary policy, or embracing decentralized financial alternatives like Bitcoin, one thing is clear.
The status quo is unsustainable. If you found this video insightful, help us spread the message. Like, share, and subscribe to the channel so we can continue covering the most critical financial issues of our time. Turn on post notifications so you never miss an update and most importantly, engage in the conversation.
What do you think is the real solution to this crisis? Drop a comment below and let's discuss. Thanks for watching and we'll see you in the next one.
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