저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 항공·공공은행·병원 등에 강한 낙관을 보이며, 단기 인도 증시는 상승하되 완만할 것이라는 입장. [아카사 항공·인도 항공업] 아카사는 저가항공이 아닌 고품질 항공사를 지향한다고 설명. 인도 1인당 지출 증가로 항공 수요가 늘고, 장관 예측대로 4년 내 연간 승객이 14억 명에서 44억 명 수준으로 늘어 현재 항공기의 약 2.5배가 필요하다고 주장. [공공은행] 신용 수요 증가로 은행의 가격 결정력이 높아지고, 충당금이 충분해 향후 충당금 환입 효과도 기대된다며 공공은행을 매우 강하게 긍정. [인도 성장 전망] 인도가 황금기에 들어가며 연 10% 성장할 것으로 전망. 1947년 이후 75년간 GDP·외환보유액·시가총액 성장 데이터를 제시하고 장수 기업(인도호텔, 타타스틸, ITC, 브리타니아 등) 언급. [병원] 병원 업종에 대해 강세 관점 제시. [디지털화] 무케시 암바니의 저가 통신 덕분에 디지털화가 촉진됐다고 평가하며 긍정적 견해 유지. [단기 시장 전망] 글로벌 환경과 무관하게 인도 증시는 상승하나 상승 속도는 완만할 것이라고 전망. [리스크] 연준·인도중앙은행 금리 인상 등 글로벌 긴축 환경이 언급됐으나 구체적 리스크 관리 조건은 제시되지 않음. [출연자] 사회자 발언 제외, 출연자는 Rakesh Jhunjhunwala 본인.
다듬은 글
you've been a long believer in the india story but there have been many who have questioned your decision to get into indian aviation because it's a space where many dreams have taken off but many dreams have also been grounded uh so on the back of the fact that now you actually have an airline that has taken flight how confident do you feel about the india aviation story hello mr ginger mr general can you hear me yeah i can well i feel very very confident about the indian story i feel very confident and comfortable and i feel akasa will be a very competitive airline we are not a low-cost staff so careline a frugal airline so you're saying you're not a low-cost airline you're a frugal airline i had the opportunity to sit down with your team at akasa vinaya dubai aditya ghosha and they were very clear that they are not going to try and disrupt this space on the back of price they are going to try and bring in disruptions on the back of customer experience and uh enhancing efficiencies across uh the value chain of the airline to your point about this being a frugal airline not necessarily just a low-cost airline i want to understand from you uh what you believe is going to be the disruption that akasa brings to the table and more importantly what kind of growth potential do you see for the airline and indian aviation from here on baby hello yes mr ginger alex go ahead mary already brought changing the uh aviation business you know our competitors are our ordering new chairs in response to the chairs in our flights and i think see you know india has reached that per capita expenditure with this krishnay expenditure will go up and therefore there'll be a lot more flying and then the honorable minister for civilization has predicted that in four years we'll have 40 we'll go from 14 crore passengers flying a year to 44 passengers you know what that means that we need about two and a half times the planes that we have today hello yes so you're basically saying that we will need a lot more aircraft in the sky to be able to capitalize on the growth in the aviation traffic that uh is being estimated of course india today uh the third largest uh civil aviation commercial uh market but mr gingerman you know you've already placed strategic bets on the aviation sector on the insurance sector as well what else are you looking at strategically where else could you perhaps uh put in a strategic bid you know that you could back strategically any other sectors that interest you from a strategic point of view public sector banks and public sector banks this is what i'm very bullish on and what's the hypothesis for betting so big on public sector banks you said you're very bullish on public sector banks what's the hypothesis there that's driving your confidence what is the hypothesis that's driving the confidence in public sector banks for you why why do you feel so bullish on public sector banks today i think because credit demand will go up and as a consequence the pricing power of banks will go up and two thing is they are very well provided i mean i think they will they'll write back from the you know instagram instead of provisions so two reasons i'm very worried there's a great growth gives them pricing power and they are very well provided okay so credit growth you're very bullish on and that you believe is going to ensure that public sector banks do well uh that's the space that you're bullish on outside of that you know since we are talking about uh india in the context of india 75 yeah yeah go ahead those who can borrow are those who can lend and they have great publication bank circuit gathering about great power of gathering deposits yeah you're absolutely right in pointing that out you know we're talking about uh india in the context of india at 75 and just some data that we've been looking at in 1947 indian gdp at 2.7 lakh crores today in 2022 197.5 lakh crores if we talk about forex reserves in 1947 at 3 billion today at 2022 at 574 billion dollars we talk about india's market cap of course we can't go all the way back to 1947 but if you just convert uh 1988 to 2022 23.6 billion dollars in 1988 in terms of the india market gap versus 3 437 billion dollars in 2022 i'm also looking at some of the big business uh uh conglomerates big business companies that have survived the last 75 years uh companies that were born before 1947 indian hotels tata steel itc britannia tata power burger paints bata hul there's many more there which of the companies that you believe have the power the potential the opportunity to be able to continue to accelerate on growth over the next few decades well i think india is going to enter a golden period and you know i see india growing at 10 percent so given the fact that you believe india is going to grow at 10 percent uh you talked about public sector banks as being one space that you are bullish on which are the other perhaps the consumer facing sectors uh where else do you believe opportunities will lie where else do you believe that we could see you know the kind of growth that you anticipate that could take us to double digits i'm very i'm very bullish on the hospital space also publicly the banks like hospitals right uh so let me understand from you you know as as you look at the various themes that are playing out today and digitization is the big theme uh that has given fresh wings to many companies to many sectors in india today the digitization bet is playing out across different sectors uh how confident do you feel about that and its transformative powers and in what ways would you perhaps back the digitization theme but i think the design thing is playing out and as time progresses it will further play out and i must you know thank mr mukesh ambani for the change he has brought about in india because you know the low cost of the communication whether in voice or in data as is what is caused digitalization in this country and we cannot thank mr ambani for the beautiful you know for the low cost he has brought to generalization and you know to either voice and communication both of it i think this country has to remain eternally grateful to mr ambani for what he has done to the daily community and sector because that is what has enabled digitalization in this country right so that's that's not a sector that you're going to be considering but i want to ask you about what you make of where the markets are poised today mr junjan vala uh we've seen the fed hike rates the expectation is that we'll see the fed hike rates even further we've just seen a 50 basis point hike coming in from the mpc uh the global environment continues to be challenging uh how do you see all of this impacting our markets the domestic equity markets in the short term what's your outlook for the markets in the short term i think mr mala thoughts on the markets in the shop i think mark hiding i think markets will go up but you know at a slower pace regardless of global development i think indian markets will gain but they will gain at a slower pace you
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