저자: ChamathPalihapitiya외패널 · 외국인
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결론: 2022년 8월 시점 패널들은 인플레이션과 금리 인상이 아직 끝나지 않았다고 보며, 최근 시장 반등은 약세장 속 일시적 랠리(데드캣 바운스)일 가능성이 높다고 경계한다. 원자재·경기 둔화: 유가가 배럴당 87달러로 하락했고 휘발유 가격도 급락했다. 패널은 공급 증가보다 수요 감소(금리 인상 효과, 경기 둔화 우려)가 주원인이라고 본다. 식료품·여행·주택 가격도 하락하며 재고가 늘고 있다. 시장 반등: 과거 닷컴 버블 당시 약세장 중 +32~+45% 반등이 있었던 차트를 인용하며, 이번 랠리도 함정일 수 있다고 본다. 일부 기업 실적과 전망이 예상보다 나아 반등이 촉발됐고, 연준의 75bp 인상 후 금리 인상 종료 기대가 랠리를 키웠다. 연준·금리: 연준 발언보다 향후 몇 달간의 CPI 데이터가 더 중요하다는 입장. 과거 CPI가 5% 이상에서 하락할 때 기준금리가 그만큼 내려간 사례가 없다고 지적하며, 금리가 균형금리의 두 배 수준까지 가야 할 수 있다고 본다. 9월 50bp 인상 기대가 있고, 두 달간 데이터 확인 후 결정될 것으로 본다. 경기 전망: 프리드버그는 가스 공급 문제(서유럽 겨울), 아프리카·남아시아 식량 불안, 동유럽 분쟁 확대, 대만·NATO 긴장을 위험 요인으로 꼽는다. 아르헨티나 인플레이션 60%, 브라질 정치 불안, 미국 신용카드 신규 계좌 급증(2008년 이후 최대)도 언급했다. 리스크: 개별 위험은 낮은 확률이지만 여러 개가 겹치면 시장 급변 촉발 가능성이 높다는 것이 결론이다. 패널은 낙관보다 경계 태도를 유지한다.
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last year you've made a ton of money so there you have it I really don't know what's going to happen from here but I tend to think things still have to get a lot worse to flush everything through the system and for people don't know the vix is the ticker symbol that you can look up yourself uh for the cboes volatility index which measures the stock market's expectation of volatility based on the S P index's options trading if you look at oil sacks we are now down to 87 bucks for a barrel uh haven't been here since uh gosh looks like yeah February maybe and so and gas prices plummeting something going well in this regard what are your thoughts yeah I mean it's uh that particular commodity is coming down I still think we have a big inflation problem um why do you think it's going down I guess production's stepping up I mean no response higher prices people increase production and um and the price comes down no no no no no no there's less demand the the the crazy sad thing about this whole thing with Biden was that OPEC came back and they basically said we can increase like 600 000 barrels a day but the only two countries that are able to do it were I think Kuwait and Saudi and the total number of barrels is about a hundred thousand so with all the blustering all of this you're right actually it's because the interest rate increases are actually having an effect correct you know these rate increases are like chemotherapy you know it's um on the economy the gas demand is lower than the summer of 2020 in the middle of the pandemic yeah yeah you're right so the the commodity prices are reflecting expectations that the economy is slowing down and and you know maybe in a recession Supply modestly up demand massively down equals hey we want to get people to buy this commodity it will lower the prices lo and behold same thing is happening a little bit with groceries uh and we'll see what happens with travel homes also spectacularly falling down in price and the inventory spiking as well so what's your yeah your take here unpack the 75 basis point increase in the chemotherapy that you were going down that road well let me just speak to this this um this rally in the market for a second because I think it was a really interesting chart that Philippe Lafont showed at that kotu Summit that we talked about on this pod a few months ago and let's put it on the screen I put in the chat uh what it basically shows is that uh is that during you know protracted bear markets you can still get substantial bear Market rallies and so during the 2000-2001 uh.com crash you had these plus 32 plus 41 plus 45 rallies uh but even while the market as a whole was going down and so they ended up being sort of Sucker rallies now I don't know if that is what's happening here but it is a possibility um one interpretation facts of this could be people are picking the winning stocks while the losers continue to lose and that's what's causing this you know Jagged Edge or the the dead count dead cat bouncing as they say which is what we're seeing in a lot of these public companies right I don't know if you're watching but Uber you know obviously I'm still a big shareholder had a massive print and other companies have been doing equally as well Apple included I think two things happened last week one is there were a number of companies that reported uh good earnings and I think even more importantly has strong forecasts so that helped and I think it was just there was so much pessimism and negativity that just companies reporting decreases that weren't as bad as people were expecting created some room to move up but the other thing that that drove the rally is that the FED made these comments on the heels of that 75 base Point rate increase that we were close to neutral and so the market seemed to get really optimistic that we wouldn't get much more in the in the way of rate increases maybe there'd be a 50 base Point rate increase towards the end of the year which would bring the FED funds rate up to about the two-year bond rate so the idea was we're close to neutral and Marcus really reacted to that the thing about that is though that I think what the pal what Powell and what the FED says today about rates is way less important than what the inflation data will actually show in a few months if we still have nine percent inflation three months from now then I don't think the rate increases are done so at the end of the day I think that the data here is going to be a lot more important than what the FED says because certainly the FED has said a lot of things over the past couple years have turned out not to be true you would agree they seem to be doing something correct here with the 75 bips you know uh and taking it a little more seriously it's having an impact I'll say it again I've said it now five pods in a row we've never seen a moment in history in American history where when CPI has printed successively above five percent that it got under five percent without fed funds getting to that same number so we should all hope that this is the exception that proves the rule but there's an enormous amount of data that would tell you that we have to take rates to double what the equilibrium rate is thought to be right now there was no print in August they take the month of August off they could do an emergency print and then they're expecting 50 or 75 bips in September if they do that saxophone 50 I think 50 is the expectation for September but look I think it's appropriate now after all the rate increase they've done to take a pause they're going to get two full months now of inflation Data before the September fed meeting I think it's appropriate to let the economy digest these rate increases and see where we're at and let's see where the next few months inflation print is and then that'll determine what happens next freeberg based on all this uh what's your outlook for the economy I think there's more we all try and be predictive based on the current set of conditions in the world and there are a number of conditions in the world that the switch could flip very quickly and there's enough of those triggering events right now that um the probability of any one or any set of them happening in the next couple of months is probably pretty high uh you know I kind of talked about it on the show a few weeks ago that it's like a bunch of their tortoises sticking their head out of the shell and you know there's a few that might pop out here there's obviously a massive problem with getting gas to Western Europe for this winter there's an emerging problem with food insecurity in Africa South Asia around the world there is obviously continuing escalating conflict in Eastern Europe this NATO situation may or may not help the Taiwan visit may or may not help is it escalating yeah I mean I think you know Sweden and and whatnot joining NATO is okay is going to be viewed as provocatory and you know it it could not make things cooler and calmer over there but make them more tense I mean we view it as a security issue but it really is a conflict escalation issue and um and then I think that there are Emerging Markets problems you know Argentina is facing 60 inflation Brazil has a criminal as their president right now and he has said publicly in the last couple of days that he will not leave office if he loses the election because the election is fraudulent and if that happens then you could see massive civil unrest he's been encouraging the population and Brazil to go to the streets and fight back and there are a number of these flash points and by the way that's a massive uh you know food supplier as well as a massive uh holding in EM credit portfolios around the world um U.S consumer credit is a problem uh you know we just had the largest number of new credit card accounts open since 2008 in Q2 from the New York fed report yesterday all of these things I'm painting as pictures of potential flash points for what would could quickly become wildfires or brush fires that spread very quickly in markets and could escalate some of the consideration so I don't feel like I look around and say everything is good we're in a good place there are some indications that some of the stagflationary considerations and concerns we may have had in the way that markets are behaving right now gives us a pause gives us a respite makes us feel okay but there are also a lot of things that could go wrong and any one of those things could be a triggering point so I always think in terms of probability there's a whole bunch of low probability things but when you have enough low probability
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