"Nobody Is Ready For THIS" Cathie Wood on Crypto Market Prediction on Bitcoin and Ethereum for 2023

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Cathie Wood가 최근 2년간 혁신 성장주 전략 낙폭(고점 대비 60~80%)에도 방어 전환하지 않겠다고 밝히며, 인플레이션 정점 통과와 과도한 공포 구간에서의 분할매수가 유리하다고 주장한다. 전략 설명: 자산배분자가 아니라 혁신 기업 중심으로 운용하며, 하락장에서는 확신도가 가장 높은 종목에 집중하는 방식을 유지한다고 설명한다. 투자자는 포트폴리오 내 현금을 별도로 확보하는 방식으로 대응해야 한다고 본다. 시장 진단: 올해가 경력 중 가장 힘든 해이며 2008~2009년보다 어렵다고 평가한다. 올해 유일하게 작동한 자산은 에너지(약 50% 상승)였으나, 전기차와 자율주행 택시 확산으로 향후 5~10년간 석유 수요가 하루 약 3,000만 배럴 줄어 수요 파괴가 이미 시작됐다고 보아 에너지에 투자하지 않는다고 밝힌다. 지수가 에너지 비중을 늘린 리밸런싱은 잘못이라고 주장한다. 금리·인플레이션: 주요 인플레이션 지표들이 올해 3월 또는 6월경 정점을 찍었다고 보며, 이는 혁신주에 통상 긍정적이라고 말한다. 다만 금리가 1년 내 18배 오르는 등 급격한 인상으로 시장이 공포에 질려 있다고 평가한다. 최근 펀드매니저·자문가 설문에서 현금 비중이 2001년·2006년 이후 최고 수준이고, 미국 풋/콜 비율이 1.5로 2001년 이후 최고라고 언급하며 이를 분할매수의 최적기로 제시한다. 역사적 비교: 2000년대 초 닷컴 버블 당시 기술주가 시기상조였던 것과 달리, 현재는 클라우드(2006년 등장), 딥러닝 AI(2012년 돌파), DNA 시퀀싱 비용(2003년 27억 달러→현재 500달러 수준) 등을 근거로 기술이 실용 단계에 들어섰다고 주장한다. 투자자들이 1990년대 말과 반대로 벤치마크로 도피하고 있으며, 혁신이 벤치마크에 문제를 일으킬 것이라고 본다. 테슬라 등 주요 보유 종목을 하락 중에도 추가 매수해 왔다고 밝힌다. 리스크·조건: 시장 공포가 지속되거나 금리 인상이 예상보다 길어지면 단기 변동성이 클 수 있으며, 본 발언은 장기 관점의 혁신 투자 견해다. 출연자 전망: 향후 혁신주(기술·AI·유전체 등) 중심의 강한 반등을 예상하며, 이 반등이 올해 중 매우 강력할 것이라고 전망한다.

다듬은 글

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01. another question given that our strategy from our our strategies from their peaks have dropped anywhere from 60 to 80 percent uh since February of 21. so this has been almost two years um why do we not turn defensive like most managers are doing well um there's a very important explanation for that we do one thing we do not pretend to be an asset allocator we are our our research and our our investment Investments are centered on disruptive innovation and so uh when advisors and individuals choose our strategy they're not choosing it alone they have more Diversified portfolios of course including real estate uh the biggest uh asset most consumers have is is housing so we are one part of an Investment Portfolio and uh therefore we would uh never be uh using cash we would expect advisors and individuals uh to to basically raise cash and segregate it from their investment portfolios in terms of our strategies we during downturns concentrate towards our highest conviction names and so we've been doing that now for uh nearly two years and the history history would suggest that that concentration strategy plays out very well in the subsequent rebounds and we do think this rebound will be quite powerful this year has been the most difficult year of my career worse than 0809 line and I would venture to say that it has been the most difficult year of many in investors career careers the only thing that worked this year was energy it's up almost 50 percent uh and many people are asking us why don't we diversify into energy since it's working well the reason for that is we think it will stop working if our forecasts for electric vehicles and autonomous taxi platforms are correct then oil demand could drop by roughly 30 percent 30 million barrels a day during the next five to ten years and we believe that demand Destruction has already started it looks like oil demand peaked in 2019 and we're still in the process of uh peeking out I would say in 100 million barrels per day range but we think the resolution of that basing period here is going to be down so we wouldn't be investing in energy and we think the indexes that have rebalanced and now are including more energy uh are are mistaken and those Investments That rebalancing will not work out uh now another question you have been buying more Tesla and other stocks during the downturn uh and and yet the prices have fallen further and our performance decline has worsened with interest rates and prices fluctuating so widely and in in this case they probably mean increasing will an investment focus on Innovation work well we believe that the leading indicator correctly is inflation and it it has peaked the inflation rate has peaked uh almost uh every measure of inflation has peaked uh most of those uh metrics peaking out in March or June of this year and the first or the second quarter so typically that's a a good thing for Innovation but as I just mentioned I think the market is so skittish and has been so terrorized by the most rapid increase in interest rates ever we have never seen an 18-fold increase in interest rates within one year it has truly terrorized the markets and I think that the fear is palpable in fact I think according to the Bank of America um surveys recent surveys of fund managers and advisors is probably the advisors we haven't seen this amount of cash on on the sidelines since I I think it was 2006 and maybe even 2001.

02. I do know also the same survey shows that the put to call ratio in the U.S market meaning those short relative to those long put calls is at 1.5 now and it has not been that high since 2001. so we have an incredible amount of fear in the market and that actually is the best time to average into these markets I remember in late 20 early 21 we could do no wrong anything we said was a gospel at the time and and I knew that that wasn't right and at the time remember I remember saying keep some powder dry it is for these moments or averaging down throughout a period like this that one keeps the powder dry this period side of the late 90s the late 90s was an irrational uh increase in tech stocks uh appreciation in tech stocks and it was incorrect the Technologies were not ready and even if they were close to being ready uh the the um costs were way too high so Technology's not ready we didn't get the cloud till 2006.

03. we didn't get the big breakthrough in AI deep learning until 2012 the cost for DNA sequencing 2.7 billion for one genome back in 2003. that number is down to 500 now we are ready for prime time and yet investors are doing the opposite of what they did during the late 90s they're running away running for the hills running for their benchmarks and we think that innovation is going to pose a problem for the benchmark