저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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결론: 급락 후 반등 구간에서 이익 일부 실현을 권고하며, 과거 닷컴 버블과의 유사성을 경계한다. [시장 상황과 닷컴 버블 비교] 나스닥은 1998년 초 1585에서 2000년 3월 5100까지 급등 후 5월 3155로 폭락했고, 이번 3일 연속 하락 후 반등에서 고점 대비 82% 상승을 기록해 당시와 유사한 탐욕 신호를 보인다고 말한다. 과거 주요 폭락으로 1987년 증시 반토막, 2008년 다우 14000에서 6500, 2020년 3월 코로나 폭락(다우 29568에서 18000대, 나스닥 9838에서 6631)을 언급한다. [투자자 행동 권고] 신규 투자자(동학개미 성격)가 증가했으나 주식이 오르기만 한다고 믿는 위험이 있다고 지적한다. 반등 시 최소한 일부 수익을 실현하고 현금 일부를 확보하라고 권한다. [섹터 로테이션] 고평가된 기술주 일부가 호실적에도 상승하지 못해 매도 신호로 본다. 항공(airlines), 외식(치폴레, 맥도날드, 대학교 Darden), 소매 등 경기 정상화 수혜주로 자금이 이동 중이라 진단한다. [리스크] 아스트라제네카 백신 임상 중단, 11월 대선(바이든 우세)과 기업세 인상 가능성에 따른 주당순이익 감소를 우려한다. 소수 대형 기술주(테슬라, 애플, 마이크로소프트, 아마존, 페이스북) 급락 시 S&P500 전체가 끌려내려갈 수 있다고 경고한다. [종목 언급] 기술주 전반을 매도 대상으로 언급했으며, 특정 종목명은 자막상 명확히 확인되지 않는다. [출연자 전망] 단기 반등 이후 조정 가능성을 열어두되, 일시적 폭락 후 기술주 일부 반등 가능성도 언급한다. 전체적으로 공포가 아닌 규율 있는 이익 실현을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
and put days like today in some sort of context so call me at 1-800-743 cmc or tweet me at jim kramer after the third straight beat down in a row dow plunging 630 points s p plummeting seven eight percent and the nasdaq knows diving four point one one percent cell cell it's tempting to try to learn something from the big bone crushers of the past so we can apply those bone crushers to the future no two selloffs are totally alike but there can be similarities take the dot-com bust which is the one that most people talk about we had a huge lead up the endless run from 1998 to march of 2000 followed by a rapid meltdown is that what's happening here now now that the nasdaq's full and 10 from size i'm hearing about that buzz all day okay at the beginning of 1998 the nasdaq composite stood at five 1585.
thousand five hundred eighty five it then roared to five thousand one hundred by march of two thousand and then plummeted to three thousand one hundred fifty five by may fast forward to nineteen years ago in a round trip to one thousand five hundred eighty five it is your worst nightmare of course there are other horrendous sell-offs from the past 40 years the 87 crash averages were cut in half in a few hours time financial crisis dozen years ago dallas laid the waste plunging from 14 000 down to 6 500.
then there's the kovic crash from earlier this year dow tumbled from 29.568 at the february highs to just above 18 000. the march lows nasdaq sank from 9838 to 6631 but it's that rebound from the march lows that's drawing comparison to the dot-com era the nasdaq surged 82 from bottom to its highs just in the last week okay for many portfolio managers who around for the dot-com era this is the kind of move that reminds them too much of 1998 to 2000.
that move right there is what got so much fear that it's palpable now lastly i called in from vacation to make the point that no two cells are the same but you know what is the same this is what's the same greed is the same in other words history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes we know there are lots of new investors in this market between the 1200 stimulus checks the generous unemployment benefits through july and the advent of commission free trading millions of younger people have been drawn to individual stocks generally speaking i think it's a great thing it's great that the more people trying to benefit from the greatest engine of wealth creation in history which is why i always welcome the newbies and they initially weren't greedy however rookie investors tend to make rookie mistakes they don't know the history they don't know what they own and if they got in during a bull market they may not realize that stocks can actually go down especially if they're acolytes of my friend a bar stools dave portnoy who embraces the idea that stocks always go up now obviously it's tongue-in-cheek but you know what i mean me well you know what i have too much history and history tells me to be worried about greed i always figured if we ever got to a situation that looked remotely similar to 2000 i made a promise to you the viewer i would tell you to take some realized gains you can't just let it roll you have to take something off the table even if it's necessarily to get a little bounce tomorrow even it's not necessarily right here look look at how far we've come greed i don't like greed all right now we have been through a hideous three-day losing streak and this is really the deciding moment right here other than a handful of big crashes three days is usually when the selling dries up particularly for tech which has borne the brunt of this decline i think the best of breed tech plays can rebound here after a sell-off in the morning get this little sell off people panic europe declines and then i think you can do a little buying but listen to me uh even though we're entering a seasonally positive portion of what's historically been a terrible month for stocks we got to be careful we get that lower opening tomorrow i know my travel trust will be a buyer not a seller kind of finished seller just sold every text something that every single tech stock we had including some that i won't mention but i still want to flush out my comments from last week when i called it for vacation not just because someone described me as looking like a tomato which is deeply unfair to my beloved beefsteaks we need to circle back not because i want you to be afraid but because at some point you have to declare victory on something please now let's say we were at the horse races you put your money down if you win you collect you go to the window it's finite if you decide to bet on an nfl game you don't let it ride you can't you won you go collect don't ask me how you collect the stock market's different in the market see the it's a different market there's no window there's no collection the wager doesn't end until you decide to cash out that's why i'm always telling you to take some profits uh why you why you have them you don't want to get too greedy you want to be disciplined because discipline keeps your paper gains from turning into real losses unfortunately every new generation of investors seems determined to learn the lesson the hard way they don't want to cash out they want to let their gains run they think guys like me are silly fuddy-duddies like i never did this myself it's like they have no fear of course they don't they have no fear because young people think they're invincible it's the oldest story in the world uh so listen if you're part of this rookie cohort believe me i get it you had all these grizzled money managers telling you to stay the heck away from the market during one of the greatest rises in history march april may june july their fears turn out to be irrational you made a fortune if you bet against them they were the scaredy-cats you were the opportunist you got it right but you can now get it wrong unless you're in the register on something i don't want to be one of those scaremongers i'm just beginning here's what i'm doing i'm telling you to have some discipline i expect this market to have a near-term balance and discipline means you should sell something to that rebound not because the sky is falling it isn't simply because letting all your gains ride is insane by all means leave something on the table and if you have some spare cash maybe if you just dodged a ten percent decline do something but but i do want you to play with the house's money if you're up huge first why do i say this well because when the market goes up this far this fast you're going to run into stocks that can't rally even when they report great results and that's what happened to all sorts of terrific but overextended tech names last week including a couple you'll hear from this show whenever you see that kind of action it means you have to do some selling that's a classic warning sign even if the companies are great second right now we're witnessing a rotation that's all about a return to normalcy what does normalcy mean more travel so the airlines are going higher more dining out so chipotle and mcdonald's and darden do better more shopping so some of the down-out retailers that have been left behind can play catch-up sure we have no vaccine yet and a promising one from astrazeneca was just put on hold because of an adverse safety event that may cause some people to think you know what i maybe i shouldn't be in the trials but you have to admit that things are getting better in the economy you might think it's weird that we got a terrific employment number last week and it caused the market to get hammered but that's because big institutional money managers tend to abandon high-flying tech stocks when it looks like business is picking up instead they swap into companies that thrive when the economy accelerates we also call them the cyclicals problem is tech's gotten so big and the cycles have become so small that this rotation is crushing the averages third when we get back from labor day and election year politics becomes front and center right now biden's leading them all he's no bernie sanders if anything biden's about as business friendly as democrat can get he still wants to roll back trump's corporate and capital gains tax cuts that means lower earnings per share and lower profits for net profits to you whether or not you think that's good policy it's a concrete negative finally there's so much money in so few stocks amplified by so many stupid etfs i went through them those people who issued those should be ashamed it's entirely possible for big declines in tesla apple microsoft amazon facebook to pull down the entire s p 500 bottom line when we rebound from this sell-off of which i think we will because it does tend to happen i'm insisting that you take something off the table into a bounce not because you're afraid not because i'm afraid but because it's rational when you win big at the casino you don't go all in on the next hand you cash in some of those chips and buy yourself a nice sweater or maybe if you really hit it one of those brad pitt sports jackets from bionee wow there's someth
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