저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 조정을 거치며 실적이 따라잡을 시간이 필요하고, 경기 회복은 V자형으로 진행 중이라는 낙관적 견해. 시장 조정과 실적 관점: 잦은 조정(패닉 어택)은 과열을 막는 건강한 과정이며, 시장이 횡보하며 실적이 따라잡기를 원한다고 밝힘. 과열 상승장이 이어지면 폭락 위험이 커진다고 봄. 경기 및 GDP: 2020년 3분기 실질 GDP가 2분기 33% 하락 이후 25~30% 반등할 수 있다고 전망하며, 이 수치를 지지하는 견해가 늘고 있다고 언급. 추가 부양책: 추가 재정 부양책은 필요하지 않다고 보지만, 1조 달러 규모 패키지가 나올 수 있다고 예상. 연준의 국채 매입이 3월 23일 이후 증시 상승을 이끌었다고 평가. 섹터 확산: 캐터필러가 2년 최고가 부근에 있으며, 시장이 산업재·금융·에너지 등으로 확산되기를 원한다고 언급. 배당수익률이 매우 매력적인 종목들이 있다고 봄. 리스크: 2차 확산, 백신 개발 지연 등 위험이 존재하나, 수많은 백신이 임상 중이며 헬스케어 진전이 기대된다고 함. 제퍼리 건들락의 경기 회복 우려에 대해서는 반론을 제시. 경기 회복 형태: 3~4월 2개월 침체 이후 V자형 회복이 지속되고 있으며, 이 흐름이 이어지기를 희망. 언급 종목/자산 방향: 대상 자산에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 가격 예측 발언은 없음. 캐터필러는 현재 시세만 언급.
다듬은 글
um you like to sort of chronicle these things you call them panic attacks and you say this is panic attack number 67 uh that could allow the bull market to resume everything uh fitting that thesis that narrative for you right now yeah absolutely i'm uh i'm actually i've been rooting for this market to go sideways for a while my concern was that uh we were in the early stages of a melt up that and if it continued that would set us up for a meltdown so uh having these corrections along the way is a healthy thing we need to kind of give give the market some time for uh for earnings to catch up and earnings are starting to catch up and the economy is doing really great i mean third quarter real gdp could be up something like 25 to 30 percent following a 33 drop in the second quarter so so far so good yeah we're seeing more more camps take that 30 number uh for q3 uh what does that mean for earnings estimates next year and any implications i mean we've had mnuchin ted cruz mcconnell say that a further uh aid package is uncertain is it necessary now i don't really think it's necessary but look i don't i'm not a policy maker i just kind of go with the flow and see what they're going to do next i will not be surprised if they come up with something like a trillion dollar package you know trillion here it's really there adds up to real money and i think that's why the stock market has done so well since march 23rd when the fed came in with trillions of dollars of purchases of treasuries and meanwhile the treasury continues to uh uh it will likely provide some more stimulus within the next month or so but i don't think we need it i think the economy is doing great uh with the stimulus that's been provided uh i see you know given that that with that in mind caterpillar is almost to a two-year high today do you think materials make sense do banks make sense and if they do um why are they why do they seem to be drag kicking and screaming yeah i would i would love to see this market broadened out i think we all would i mean it beats uh having another uh the correction continuing into a bear market i don't think that's likely to happen i don't think there's a recession up ahead here and i think that uh broadening the economy to industrial financials and even some energy stocks that where where the dividend yields are absolutely phenomenal um i think i think we're in that process now i want to zone in on one thing that you said about the economy doing well jeff gundlach spoke in a webcast yesterday where he said it's foolhardy to believe that one can have this kind of shock to an economy and it just gets healed through a one-shot deal from the treasury you know as you're kind of looking at the economy are you concerned that they're not acting in advance of say a second wave or a delayed uh vaccine or different types of risks that are potentially out there that could uh derail the recovery or the fact that you know some of these stimulus measures have have kind of already worked their way through the system and we could start to see uh the effects of no stimulus in the next couple months or so right no it's all very good points and look there are no guarantees in life and there's risks in life and there is a risk that uh you know kids will come back from school college kids and we'll get a second wave there's all kinds of risks and we've just had a setback on the vaccine front but you know billions of dollars are being spent on the health care front and i think we know that there's about 100 vaccines that are being looked at tested and some of them are in phase three so i think we're going to make some really good progress on the health care front uh in in the next few months we know we've kind of learned to live with the with the virus as as as difficult as it has been the economy really has responded well um but i agree i think it'll be a good that's why i i want to see the market consolidate for a while because we we do need to get a little bit more clarity on how much progress we're making on health care we also need to see make sure that we know which letter of the alphabet uh this uh recovery is tracing right now it looks like a v-shaped recovery quite honestly uh we had a two-month recession in in march and april and ever since then we've had a v-shaped recovery so we want that to continue you
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