We are seeing a restructuring economy: Ed Yardeni

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결론: 경기는 점진적으로 개선되지만 V자 반등은 아니며, 주식 강세는 일부 기업 쏠림과 금리 하락 효과이고 구조적 경기 재편이 진행 중이라는 진단. Golub: ISM 개선은 전월 대비 나아진 것이나 완전 정상 경제 대비 신호는 약하다. 향후 1~2개월은 개선이 이어지나 기저효과 부담으로 가을쯤 둔화 예상. Yardeni: 강한 V자 반등은 없고 10년물 금리가 장기 저성장을 반영한다. 2월 위기 전에도 10년물은 2% 미만이었음. 주식 강세는 소수 기업의 호조와 할인율(금리) 하락에 따른 밸류에이션 상승 때문이며 경제 전반의 건강을 뜻하지 않는다. 재편 구조: 재택근무, 교외 이동, 주택 호황이 진행 중. 인터넷·클라우드·주택 관련주가 강세장을 이끌었고 이는 경제 흐름과 일치한다. 인플레이션: 임대료 상승은 크게 둔화될 가능성이 있고 임대료 지불 불능으로 측정도 부정확할 수 있다. 목재 가격 급등은 공급 증가로 자연 조정될 것으로 봄. 언급 종목/자산: 인터넷·클라우드·주택 관련주(상승 강세로 언급), 미국 10년물 금리(장기 저성장 반영), 목재(가격 급등 후 공급 증가로 조정 전망).

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01. bring in credit suisse's jonathan golov who joins us now along with ed yardeni of yardeni research jonathan i'll start with you given the collection of data that we've seen this morning pmi that rose slightly ism that's the best read since november 2018. even though the employment picture still shows contraction there what do you make of it jonathan um you know i think this is a little bit of a of a shoulder shrug we know that sequentially the economic date is going to be getting better that this month is better than it was a month or two or three ago but it doesn't really give us a read the way that the ism is calculated on the overall health of the economy compared to what a fully operating economy uh would be our expectation is that for the next month or two we'll continue to see progress but then as the comps get a little more difficult that it's going to soften up a little bit into the uh into the fall you know you talk about sort of the the marginal improvement of some of this data on a month by month basis do you think the market is pricing in this recovery taking one to two years uh to to be a full rebound or do you think it's still expecting uh this sharp v that we've been hearing from washington is in the wings no there's there's not going to be a sharp fee there's a sharp fee off the bottom when you have an economy that you close down you shut the lights on it and then you open it up and all of a sudden yes you get a big bounce but if you look at the bond market if you look at where the 10-year bond yield is right now it's saying that we are going to have a a slower long-term economic environment um for a you know for a very long time and mind you when we went into this crisis in february we had a 10-year bond yield that was under two percent so it wasn't like the underlying expectation was that we're going to have a gangbusters economy and i think the confusion is that when the stock market is going up people keep saying that the market is at this indication of this fantastic economy we're getting it's really an indication that a a smaller group of companies are doing incredibly well and that the discount rate for stocks the the interest rates are actually boosting up the value of equities it's not uh it's not that the economy is going to continue to be like this to jonathan's point on that at what point if ever do stocks reflect macro weakness in the parts of the economy that equities tell you nothing about well look i i think uh we are seeing a restructuring our economy uh in response to the pandemic uh clearly uh um people who can work from home are working from home and uh many of them may continue to do so we're seeing de-urbanization as people move to the suburbs we've got a a housing boom uh which has been a very big positive force for the economy with mortgage rates at record lows that's been able to continue even though home prices are going up uh so i think that the parts of the economy that are actually uh doing well and actually maybe have gotten a benefit from the pandemic and i'm talking about the uh the internet stocks the cloud stocks the housing stocks uh uh all those areas have really been the leaders of this uh uh bull market and uh so that's perfectly consistent with what we're seeing in the economy on inflation uh the lumber for example gets thrown out a lot as a canary but is it simply reflective of of as you said mobility moving to suburbs not indicative of some larger presence of creeping inflation the kind that the fed hopes to build yeah well you know uh the inflation numbers have a whole bunch of components to them one of the biggest one is actually rent and we do know that uh rent inflation is likely to go down quite sharply here as a matter of fact i'm not sure that we're even measuring it uh correctly because there's a lot of people who just simply haven't been able to to make their rent payments so i think for the short term here there's some pretty powerful forces keeping a lid on inflation and lumber is a is not directly in the cpi maybe it's in the ppi uh but uh you know the best the best cure for high com commodity prices is high commodity prices i suspect high lumber prices are going to lead to an increase in supply you