저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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마이클 버리는 현재 인플레이션이 곧 둔화될 것이며, 연준의 자산 축소와 공급망 과잉(채찍효과/bullwhip)으로 디스인플레이션과 공급 과잉이 올 것이라고 주장한다. 핵심 근거: 연준이 2020년 이후 약 5조 달러를 찍었고 당시 인플레이션은 8.6%였으나, 연준은 연 1.1조 달러씩 통화를 줄일 예정이라고 주장한다. 공급망 측면에서는 컨테이너선 발주가 올해 239척으로 역대 다섯 번째 수준에 근접하고 도매 재고가 전년 대비 24% 늘었다고 언급한다. 소비자 심리는 미시간대 지수 기준 15년 최저 수준이라며 수요 부족과 가격 하락을 전망한다. 채찍효과 설명: 소매 재고가 매출보다 10배 빠르게 늘고 있으며(월마트 재고 33%, 홈디포 32% 증가 vs 매출 2~4% 증가), 이는 과잉 주문의 신호라고 본다. 버리는 이 과정이 연준의 양적완화와 긴축을 반복하는 순환을 낳아 경제가 채찍효과 루프에 갇히고, 결국 역사적 폭락이 올 것이라고 경고한다. 이 과정에서 연준의 자산 축소가 가격 하락을 촉발하고 이후 다시 양적완화가 이어진다는 시나리오를 제시한다. 인플레이션 장기 추세에 대해서는 1970년대 이후 인플레이션이 2% 이하로 돌아간 적이 없다는 점을 근거로 들며 낙관하지 않는다. 비트코인은 나스닥과 상관성이 높아 또 다른 기술주일 뿐이라고 평가한다. 과거 대폭락장에서 나타난 큰 랠리들은 시장 회복의 신호가 아니며, 단기 반등을 지속적 회복으로 착각하면 안 된다고 주장한다. 영상 내 정확한 종목 추천이나 목표가는 제시되지 않았다.
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recent spike in the prices of commodities have made the lives of consumers difficult this struggle has been felt by people all around the world however michael bury believes that inflation will slow down in the near future contrary to what most experts believe join us in today's video as we discuss michael bury's views and his explanation of this deadly cycle the economy is currently trapped in michael berry has just revealed a disturbing new development in what has become one of the most terrible economic catastrophes in history nobody understands what brewery observes much like in 1999 and 2008 but the world is poised to become aware very soon according to bury the theater took more than a decade to overstuff not likely everyone gets out in less than a year even though it took years to pack the theater the fall will be swift and agonizing there will obviously be some people who are left behind and it will be their own responsibility for not understanding what is going on despite the fact that the warnings have been there for many years investors all around the world are still in for an unpleasant surprise the government made a mistake and we all know it however that is not the topic of our discussion price increases were inevitable when the federal reserve issued five trillion dollars in new money as a direct consequence of this the rate of inflation is presently at eight point six percent bury is of the opinion that there will not be sustained high levels of inflation in the near future which is in opposition to the mainstream media's perspective during the epidemic the fed did indeed print at a rate of 1.5 trillion per year but the contrary is currently unfolding the federal reserve intends to reduce the money supply by 1.1 trillion dollars each year if prices increased after the federal reserve issued billions of dollars then it is reasonable to predict that prices will decrease once the federal reserve withdraws trillions of dollars from circulation meanwhile supply networks are making progress in meeting demand in the most recent few years supply chains have been subjected to increased levels of pressure but this is beginning to change the global community has not sat idly by as the pandemic has taken hold our ability to adjust to new circumstances is hardwired into our very being businesses have improved their efficiency new supply chains have been established and the construction of container ships has increased the supply panic has reached a full speed in every possible way according to one shipping expert a total of 239 container ships have been ordered so far this year even though we're just halfway through the year container ship orders for this year are on pace to be the fifth highest ever clearly such a substantial rise is unsustainable a second analyst said that the magnitude of the projection is certainly cost for alarm the expansion of inventory is giving us our first glimpse of the frantic race to manufacture more supplies inventory at the wholesale level has increased by 24 when compared to the prior year the difficulty with this newly discovered supply is that customers are decreasing the amount of money they are spending according to the university of michigan consumer sentiment index consumer sentiment has reached its lowest level in 15 years as a result of a surplus of goods and a lack of customer demand prices will fall rapidly berry asked the following question in a tweet question in 2022 what brings a christmas in july answer a disinflationary overstocked consumer recession at christmas berry is implying that there will soon be an excess in supply the term supply glut refers to the situation in which retail outlets suddenly have an abundance of available inventory but insufficient demand because of an overabundance of supplies retail establishments will have little choice but to begin lowering prices and holding more frequent deals when burry states that christmas will arrive early in july he is referring to this as what he means as a result of overproduction by firms christmas sales are a regular occurrence reducing the price is the only way to make money off of these items in the year 2022 christmas will come early and it won't be for the right reasons when there is an excessive number of products on store shelves business revenues will plummet resulting in layoffs and wage reductions berry elaborated by stating this supply glut or retail is the bullwhip effect google it worth understanding for your investing endeavors deflationary pauses from this lead to disinflation in cbi later this year which then leads to the fed reversing itself on rates and quantitative tightening and this leads to cycles of that occurring again the bullwhip effect occurs when there is a sudden increase in demand which leads providers to place excessive orders for supply these extra supplies are ordered as a safety net by businesses when a chain of enterprises collectively places additional orders the supply might grow to unsustainable levels in most supply chains there are retailers distributors and manufacturers at various points along the way as evidenced by this illustration at each level of the supply chain surplus orders result from over ordering this is like a bull whip which is why it's called the bullwhip effect let's imagine a walmart store sells approximately 30 cases of beverages every day on average short-term beverage sales have surged dramatically as a result of a recent social media trend let's assume that the walmart shop is suddenly selling 90 cases of beverages every day as opposed to the usual 30 cases in order to meet the increased demand walmart will now purchase 150 cases of drinks per day this allows walmart to keep an additional 60 cases on hand each day in case demand rises walmart currently orders 150 cases of beverages a day from the beverage distributors this increase in demand will push these businesses to purchase 250 cases of beverages per day now the beverage producer will receive 250 orders each day and produce 350 beverage cases during the course of this procedure we went from having 90 cases of beverages to having 350 cases of beverages not only do we have an additional 260 crates of beverages available per day but the demand increase that we experience for the limited time period may end at any moment due to the rapid surge in the availability of beverages companies along the supply chain will be forced to reduce their prices this results in a deficiency in supplies this means that retailers will order a less amount of inventory when the inevitable happens in the supply of beverages runs out companies will once more be left scurrying to obtain beverages for their customers the prices of beverages will once again soar pushing stores such as walmart to order additional beverages this puts us back to the beginning at this moment we are witnessing an intensified version of the bullwhip effect given the extraordinary shortfall retailers have bought large quantities of supply because of this we now have one of the largest bull whips in history and in the event that there is a bull whip there will inevitably a supply glut bury is aware that our growing abundance of incoming supplies will generate deflationary tendencies which will eventually result in disinflation disinflation occurs when the rate of inflation slows down significantly therefore contrary to what many people believe inflation will really begin to slow down in the very near future due to the impending disinflation caused by the bull whip effect the federal reserve could resume quantitative easing also known as printing money after that consumer demand will increase which will result in another supply deficit caused by quantitative easing because there is a lack of supplies the federal reserve will then engage in quantitative tightening which is another name for the withdrawal of money from the economy the only concern is that retailers may place additional orders as they have in the past which will lead to the recurrence of the bullwhip effect when there is an excessive amount of supply prices will fall which will prompt the fed to begin quantitative easing once more this would result in an artificially increased consumer demands and a scarcity of supply which will only serve to create the conditions for yet another bullwhip when this happens the economy becomes stuck in bullwhips which is very dangerous currently we are at the bullwhip phase of this loop and as a consequence we will witness one of the most catastrophic collapses in history despite how widespread awareness of the bullwhip effect may be there is no way to prevent the phenomenon from occurring because it is intrinsic to the human condition bury provided a further explanation of the bullwhip effect by stating across the economy different verticals are in different phases at the same time but fundamental equity investors are rarely looking at more than one vertical at the time bury is effectively advocating for a big economic bull whip this indicates that the bull whip does not solely consist of retail outlets such as walmart and target additionally it might cover sectors ranging from plane production to cell phone manufacturing the beer game was described on a web page that was attached to barry's tweet the beer game has absolutely nothing to do with actually consuming beer despite what you may have been led to believe the beer game's objective is to imitate the beer supply chain the game contains four groups the retailer wholesaler distributor and brewer the game's participants are broken up into four different groups and each of these groupings is considered to be a unit profit maximization is the ultimate objective of every business unit inventory levels are nearly always excessive at the completion of the game this is due to the fact that each of the four units always orders additional beers which in turn amplifies the final outcome the bullwhip effect is demonstrated to be a fundamental component of human nature via the beer game the bullwhip effect is currently manifesting itself among retailers inventory levels at walmart increased 33 percent year over year in the first quarter of 2022 inventory at home depot increased by 32 percent this occurred while walmart home depot and target also saw their sales climb by only two to four percent annually inventory levels at the retailer are rising ten times more quickly than sales which is a clear indication of the bullwhip effect at work the bull whip effect as previously stated does not occur only once every decade it is a never-ending cycle that gets progressively worse with the passage of time with prices generally moving in an upward direction over the course of the long run bury posted on twitter january 1973 president johnson died four men beat frazier and roe versus wade the dow jones hit its highs for the 1966 to 1982 period as cyclical inflation reduced the spending of the dollar to just 35 cents there was never a deflation to reverse that not 10 cents prices repeatedly fluctuated as a result of the bullwhip cycle but towards the end of the cycle there was one final price increase without a corresponding decline consequently although prices fluctuated they ultimately increased over time bury's tweet included a graph depicting the 1970s inflation rate this chart shows the inflation rate fluctuating in a cyclical pattern demonstrating the bullwhip effect properly the bullwhip effect continued to gain momentum over time resulting in consistently higher inflation rates throughout the passage of time prices continued their steady ascend throughout the decade of the 1970s and they never returned to their previous levels since inflation continued at significantly positive levels since its first bullwhip inflation has never returned to its pre-boom level of two percent berry elaborated by stating transitory no peak no to the moon if you mean a cold dark place at the bottom of his tweet was an article describing how prices went up so much that nobody wanted to purchase bonds anymore his tweet included a link to an article outlining how bond prices had risen to the point that no one wanted to buy them the cpi news this morning was so awful that it changed the bond markets through a fed trajectory and the weakest sector broke in bond jargon mortgage-backed securities went no-bid no buyers for mortgage-backed securities bidsen asks are the standard mode of operation in the financial markets the asking price is the price at which sellers are ready to sell well the bid price is the amount at which customers are willing to pay this results in a pricing difference between the two this is where a market maker such as citadel comes in they will buy the commodity for what it's bidding and then resell it for their asking price in order to profit because of the elevated level of inflation in the month of june there were no offers for mortgage-backed assets this indicates no one was ready to acquire mortgage-backed assets which are bonds supported by house loans these numbers are ominous because they indicate that inflation will continue to linger around this is due to the fact that not everyone is on the same page regarding how to control inflation despite the fact that the fed is attempting to do so burrie sent a link to an article in twitter that made the announcement of the inflation relief payments that will be given to california residents this is ludicrous due to the fact that receiving free money will only serve to make inflation much worse he mocked california's approach by stating that is not how this works that is not how any of this works our current economic situation is unimaginable yet there must be a brighter future ahead however berry isn't optimistic about the future he posted a remark from billionaire businessman tom siebel i don't think this is going to be over until everybody swears they will never own crypto and they will never own a technology stock berry noted such was assigned in 2002 1932 and 74.
09 was a panic bottom but 07 was not a speculative peak in stocks in year 2021 we reached the pinnacle of speculative activity furthermore speculation almost always result in everyone becoming fearful of speculative assets at this point in time we have not yet reached that point despite bury's disdain for the digital currency it remains a popular choice for many people bury posted a graph that demonstrated the correlation between bitcoin and the nasdaq with a questioning tweet reading are we sure bitcoin is not just another risk asset in the nasdaq 100 it is clear from the substantial connection that exists between bitcoin and the nasdaq that bitcoin is not an asset that is free from correlation the fact that the price of bitcoin moves up and down in a manner that is comparable to that of the nasdaq demonstrates that bitcoin is nothing more than a different type of technology stock with a different name there are those people like jim cramer who may refer to a short-term surge as a sign that the economy is recovering short-term rallies on the other hand are more common in mid-market catastrophes as brees well aware although it may seem counter-intuitive history has proven that the biggest rallies occur during market declines bury wrote who knew this year was so much fun because of all the doomed rallies recall 1929 to 1932 top to bottom 10 rallies above 10 averaging 23 2000 to 2002 16 rallies above 10 averaging 23 consequently every year there is a significant multi-year crash but there are also lots of recoveries of 10 to 25 percent nevertheless you shouldn't confuse their rallies for an indication of a sustained recovery in the market bear markets ignore short-term rallies because they have no meaning having stated all of that the question now is how exactly is berry getting ready for the impending crisis in contrast to the majority of those who forecast market crashes bury is actually willing to put his money where his mouth is having said that the complexity of his portfolio is not as obvious as it might at first appear what did you guys think of michael bury's opinions on the future of inflation do you agree that we could see a decline in the rise of inflation over the short term comment your thoughts in the comment section down below if you enjoyed this video kindly like and subscribe and we'll see you on the next one
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